So who’s winning this most thrilling of Portuguese title races? Sporting or Benfica?

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PortuGOAL

·17 de abril de 2025

So who’s winning this most thrilling of Portuguese title races? Sporting or Benfica?

With five matches remaining of the 2024/25 Primeira Liga, it would take a brave person to predict who will come out victors in a titanic battle between Lisbon rivals Sporting and Benfica, which has entailed twists and turns aplenty.

The two sides are level on points at the summit of the table. PortuGOAL looks at all the indicators that may influence the outcome.

Vídeos OneFootball

It may not have been the highest quality league season in Portugal. Poor European campaigns and a far higher number of dropped points than usual among the front runners suggest the major teams are not as strong as in previous years.

Nevertheless, or perhaps precisely for this reason, it is threatening to be one of the most exciting finishes to a domestic season in years. With northern clubs Braga and Porto duking it out to finish third, the race to the finishing tape is confined to Portugal’s capital clubs for a second successive season. Sporting came out on top last year and are gunning for back-to-back titles for the first time in 70 years, but Benfica are chasing hard. Let’s take a closer look.

Amorim exit opens the door for Benfica

Sporting started the season on fire reeling off 11 straight victories under Rúben Amorim before the coach departed for England. His exit led to an immediate downturn in results, but nevertheless the Lions have spent most of the season at the top looking downwards.

Benfica briefly got their noses in front at the end of the calendar year, and did so again after their historic 4-1 thrashing of Porto at the start of the month of April and Sporting’s draw at home against Braga the next day.

The Eagles were immediately touted as favourites to win the league, but one week later many were revising their predictions. Benfica’s 9-match winning run came to an unexpected end as Weverson’s stoppage time goal gave Arouca a 2-2 draw at the Estádio da Luz on Sunday afternoon. This, a day after Sporting had come away from the Azores with a hard-fought 1-0 win against Santa Clara.

Crucial derby on the horizon

As such, the reigning champions went back top of the table, albeit only on goal difference with both clubs on 69 points. It is pointed out that in Portugal, when teams finish level on points, the head-to-head record determines who finishes higher, but only after both fixtures have been played.

Sporting beat Benfica 1-0 at Alvalade earlier in the season. The return match, in the penultimate round of games, could well be the title decider. If Sporting win or draw at Benfica, they will hold the head-to-head advantage should the two finish level on points. If Benfica beat Sporting in front of their home fans by two clear goals, they “win” the head-to-head battle. If the Eagles prevail by a single goal on 10 May, the next tie-breaker comes into play – goal difference – with Sporting currently holding a five-goal advantage.

Remaining fixtures

Now let’s compare the schedule of the two title contenders:

Arguments in favour of Sporting

In theory, Sporting have an easier schedule than Benfica. To start with, they have three games at home, compared to Benfica’s two. And on paper at least, Moreirense and Gil Vicente at home and a hapless Boavista away look like 9 points for the taking. As for Benfica’s remaining matches, only the home game against AVS should be relatively straightforward. All the other games for the Eagles look like tough assignments.
Viktor Gyökeres. How can the name of one player be a legitimate reason? Because we are talking about Viktor Gyökeres. The Swedish goal machine is undoubtedly the best player in the country, scorer of 87 goals in 95 games for Sporting, including 3 goals and 2 assists in 6 matches against Benfica. Back to full fitness, Gyökeres is a guarantee of goals, translated into points, until the end of the season.
Injuries alleviating. Sporting have been badly affected by injuries to key players this season. Coach Rui Borges is at last beginning to benefit from more availability, the return of Pedro Gonçalves on the weekend an especially significant piece of news. Although Pote only got the final 10 minutes against Santa Clara, his playing time will gradually increase and he may yet have a crucial role to play in the title push.

Arguments in favour of Benfica

Crunch game at home. With both teams level on points right now, there is a reasonable chance that the result of the clash on 10 May will end up being the deciding factor. Benfica have been formidable at home this season, wining 13, drawing 1, and losing 1 of 15 matches at the Estádio da Luz, always backed by a full house of 65,000 fans offering raucous support.
The form team. Before Sunday’s draw, Benfica had won 9 consecutive matches in the Primeira Liga, scoring three or more goals in 8 of those games. Benfica’s offensive game has been simply unstoppable for much of the last three months, with several of their attacking individuals such as Orkun Kökçü, Evangelis Pavlidis and Kerem Aktürkoğlu playing at the top of their game.
Squad depth. Bruno Lage can call on multiple solutions after Benfica boosted their squad in the January transfer window with four new acquisitions: Bruma, Andrea Belotti, Samuel Dahl and Manu (the latter subsequently injured and out for the season). In addition to key players hitting top form as mentioned in the previous point, backup wingers Andreas Schjelderup and Bruma, and centre-forward Andrea Belotti are dangerous weapons to bring off the bench against tiring defenders.

Curiosities

In the 90-year history of Portugal’s Primeira Liga, the team that has been top going into the last weekend of the season has ALWAYS been crowned champions. So, if precedence holds, whoever is top of the pile coming out of the Lisbon derby will be Portuguese champions in 2024/25.
In the last seven seasons no team has retained the title in Portugal.

What the pundits say

Bruno Andrade and Sofia Oliveira comment on all things Portuguese football for CNN Portugal TV channel. This is what they had to say after the latest round of matches regarding the title race.

Bruno Andrade (football journalist and CNN pundit):

“To be honest I thought neither Benfica nor Sporting would slip up again until the end of the season, but Benfica slipped up against Arouca, Sporting slipped up against Braga, and if it happened in these games, it wouldn’t be a surprise if it happens again.

“I continue to believe that the championship will be decided, or practically decided, in the penultimate round [when the two teams meet]. Neither team is playing the football it should be given the squads they have, but even though Benfica are behind Sporting right now, I still make them slight favourites to be champions, because they are playing Sporting at home and because they have a team that is playing a little bit more consistent football now, and they have a much deeper squad.”

Sofia Oliveira (football journalist and CNN pundit):

“I think it is perhaps the worst quality championship I can remember, but owing to the incompetence, it seems both teams are close to dropping points in various games.

“Benfica are the club that have the more complicated schedule until the end of the league, although they have come through one of their most difficult hurdles, which was the trip to the Dragão.

“Benfica clearly have the better squad, their coach is working the team for more time, and the options are abundant. Prestianni comes in for the Tirsene game, does what he does and is out of the squad for the Arouca game! Maybe if Prestianni was a Porto or Sporting player he would be a first-choice player or backup player. Benfica have two strikers on the bench, etc.

“It’s a squad that enables Bruno Lage to mask the collective problems through individual standouts much more than Rui Borges can, but sincerely I’ll leave my opinion here. Irrespective of what happens until the end of the season, neither Rui Borges nor Bruno Lage have shown enough to deserve staying on as the head coach of their respective club next season.”