Serie A preview: Hellas Verona vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

AC Milan will play their last game before Christmas on Friday night, hoping to get a much-needed win against Hellas Verona at the Stadio Bentegodi.

Milan had their 125th-anniversary celebrations tainted somewhat on Sunday night at San Siro as Genoa escaped with a 0-0 draw. The fall-out afterwards included protests from fans outside the party the next night, plus suggestions that Paulo Fonseca needs a positive result to keep his job.

In his pre-match press conference, Fonseca insisted that he is not feeling the pressure, but seemed to understand the magnitude of turning around domestic form.

Game date: Friday, December 20 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET) Venue: Stadio MarcAntonio Bentegodi Referee: Livio Marinelli (VAR: Chiffi)

Team news

As mentioned already, it is vital that Milan pick up three points to at least try and make ground on the Champions League places. Going into the festive period in eighth place and eight (or more) points behind the top four would be nothing short of a disaster.

Back on November 29, during the press conference before the game against Empoli, Fonseca took pride in pointing out how this season the number of injuries for Milan was decidedly low both compared to last year and the general average. Since then an injury bug has hit, as the jinx goes.

The list of absentees for the Verona game is as follows: Luka Jovic, Christian Pulisic, Noah Okafor, Kevin Zeroli, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Yunus Musah, Ismael Bennacer and Alessandro Florenzi.

In terms of when those players will return, both Musah and Okafor have calf issues which will keep them out into the new year. Loftus-Cheek, Pulisic and Bennacer could be back against Roma on December 29 but might also be saved for the Supercoppa, while the same goes for Jovic.

Fonseca made the tough but (in his eyes) necessary choice to give Theo Hernandez a game on the bench against Genoa on Sunday. Alex Jimenez filled in at left-back and while reports suggested he would get the nod again after an impressive performance, Sky are suggesting otherwise.

The broadcaster claimed on Wednesday night that the Frenchman has reacted well to Fonseca’s wake-up call and should be back in the side. They also confirmed that the coach tried Alvaro Morata behind Tammy Abraham in training, like in the derby.

However, on the eve of the game, things seem to be changing slightly.

Mike Maignan will sit behind a defensive line consisting of Emerson Royal, Matteo Gabbia and Malick Thiaw. However, there is a decision to be made about the left-back with reports suggesting that Alex Jimenez was trialled in training there again, so he seems more likely.

Tijjani Reijnders and Youssouf Fofana should both continue together and there should be no shocks there. Once again, it seems they could be spearheaded by Mattia Liberali, given there are several injuries in the midfield department.

On the wings, Samuel Chukwueze and Rafael Leao are expected, given there are not really any alternatives to either. Leading the line should be Tammy Abraham, but Francesco Camarda is hoping for a chance.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson Royal, Gabbia, Thiaw, Jimenez; Fofana, Reijnders; Chukwueze, Liberali, Leao; Abraham.

The opponents

It was mission accomplished in many ways for Verona in 2023-24 as they achieved what was in the end a relatively comfortable survival, finishing 13th under Paolo Zanetti. They did need five wins in their last 11 games to climb out of the relegation zone, though.

In terms of summer business, they spent €4.5m on midfielder Suat Serdar who arrived from Hertha BSC, €3m on right-back Jackson Tchatchoua from Charleroi and €2.5m on forward Ayanda Sishuba from RC Lens.

An overall €13.1m spend was well offset by over €25m in sales. The bulk of it came from Juan Cabal who headed to Juventus for €12.8m, and Tijjani Noslin who joined Ajax for €12m.

Zanetti’s side hold the rather remarkable distinction of not having drawn a game yet. They have won five and lost 11 of their opening 16, with a league-worst -18 goal difference.

What is even more peculiar is that they started the season with a 3-0 win over Napoli, then won 2-0 at Genoa after a 3-0 home defeat to Juventus, so they began well. The other wins were against Venezia (2-1), Roma (3-2) and Parma (3-2).

The Gialloblu were dumped out of the Coppa Italia in the first round by Serie B side Cesena at home which didn’t go down well, so it has been a real rollercoaster ride so far. They sit just one point above the relegation zone.

After a win at the weekend with a new system, it seems that Paolo Zanetti could look to continue with a three-at-the-back system – despite conceding two against a struggling Parma side.

Montipo should be shielded by Dawidowicz, Ghilardi and Coppola – who scored in last weekend’s game – to make up the bank of three.

Rather than a midfield four, which was successful, it seems Zanetti will look to add more strength to the team in the middle of the park, attempting to counter the Rossoneri’s midfield threat. For this reason, Belahyane – who has been a target for Milan – and Duda should be joined by Suslov. The trio will then, expectedly, be flanked by Lazovic and Tchatchoua.

Livramento and Sarr should then be the ones selected to lead the line for Zanetti’s side, with four goals and assists between them, they will need to be at their best.

Predicted Verona XI (3-5-2): Montipo; Dawidowicz, Ghilardi, Coppola; Lazovic, Belahyane, Duda, Suslov, Tchatchoua; Sarr, Livramento.

Head to head

Milan are now officially 125 years old as a club, and in that time they have faced Verona 78 times, with 36 wins, 28 draws and 14 defeats. It results in a win rate of 46.2%.

Last season the Rossoneri did the double over the Scaligeri. A 1-0 win at San Siro came thanks to Leao’s first-half goal, while Theo, Pulisic and Chukwueze scored in a 3-1 victory at the Bentegodi.

Verona haven’t beaten Milan since 2017 (a 3-0 home win), but they do have three victories against the Diavolo at home since the 2013-14 season. Then, of course, there is the ‘Fatal Verona’ curse.

Key facts and stats

➤ Milan have won their last seven Serie A matches against Hellas Verona; the Rossoneri only have a longer open winning run in the competition against Siena (nine, the last of which dates back to 19 May 2013).

➤ Hellas Verona have lost all of their last five Serie A home games against Milan, as many home defeats as in the previous 11 (W5, D2); in their history in the competition they have never lost more home games in a row against a single opponent (five also against Fiorentina and Torino).

➤ Hellas Verona ended a run of four defeats in a row in Serie A with a victory last time out; they have not achieved two successes in a row in the competition since March, when they managed to beat Sassuolo and Lecce.

➤ Hellas Verona have conceded at least one goal in their last 13 Serie A matches, the longest open streak among the teams currently in the competition: in general, only Catania, Salernitana (15), Padova (18) and Livorno (27) have a longer open streak without a clean sheet in the top flight.

➤ After conceding two goals in each of the first three matchdays this season (league), Milan have kept a clean sheet in seven of their next 12 Serie A matches; in the competition in this period, only Napoli have more (eight clean sheets, but with one game more than the Rossoneri).

➤ Milan have won only six of their first 15 games played in the league (5D, 4L); the last time the Rossoneri achieved so few successes after as many matches was 2019-20, when they also drew in the 16th match played.

Photo by Alessandro Sabattini/Getty Images

➤ Hellas Verona is the team who have been trailing for the most minutes in this Serie A season: 639 minutes, of which 356 at home, another negative record. Verona’s Lorenzo Montipò has conceded 38 goals in the league, compared to an Expected Goals conceded value of 25.7; the difference of 12.3 is the highest in the current ‘top five’ European leagues.

➤ Daniel Mosquera is the player who has scored the most goals as a substitute in this championship (four); in the three points for a win era, no Hellas player has done better in a single Serie A season (four also for Nicolás López in 2014/15 and Antonio De Vitis in 1996/971.

➤ Rafael Leão’s three Serie A goals this season have all come away from home, the Milan player has scored three goals against Hellas Verona in Serie A, only against Cagliari, Lecce (five against both) and Fiorentina (four) has netted more in the competition, while a goal here would already equal his goal tally from last season away from home.

Ones to watch

Starting with the hosts, Reda Belahyane – if fit – could dictate the game for Verona, and given the Rossoneri have reportedly had an interest in the youngster, he will be aiming to impress in front of one of his suitors.

Then, we need to highlight the strike force. For much of the season, they have underperformed and despite Amin Sarr scoring in the game against Parma at the weekend, the duo only had 0.56 xG in the game from five shots. It would, therefore, not come as a shock if either or both pulled a fantastic performance out of nowhere against Milan, which the defence cannot allow to happen.

For Milan, we’re first highlighting the duo of Liberali and Chukwueze. With Christian Pulisic expected to return before the end of 2024, they are fighting for a place in the team and the lesser of the two could see themselves removed from the team. With Liberali’s struggles for the Futuro side, you could argue that he has more to lose.

We also need to see more from Emerson. Jimenez has proved himself as a first-team candidate and if Theo returns to an acceptable standard, the Spaniard may move to the right-hand side, so Emerson must fight for this to not happen.

Prediction

There is something about this game that feels eerily similar to the 2-2 draw against Salernitana last season before Christmas. A game that Milan really should be winning away from home, but a rescue act to salvage a draw and save the manager’s job, as Jovic did for Stefano Pioli one year prior.

Hellas Verona 2-2 AC Milan