Serie A preview: Cagliari vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

After the highs of midweek, AC Milan return to Serie A action on Saturday evening as they take on Cagliari at the Unipol Domus.

Milan pulled off perhaps the shock of the round on Tuesday night as they beat Real Madrid 3-1 away from home in the Champions League. Now, the challenge is to find some consistency heading into the international break, and perhaps resume the discussions about a potential title challenge.

Paulo Fonseca said in his pre-match press conference that he is actually more worried about facing Cagliari than he was Real Madrid because he is aware of the differing levels of motivation each opponents generate. Now the players must show him he had nothing to worry about.

Game Date: Saturday, November 1 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET) Venue: U-Power Stadium Referee: Ermanno Feliciani (VAR: Serra)

Team news

Before the game against Monza last weekend, Fonseca’s job seemed to be back on the line again as there was reportedly a meeting between Fonseca and his superiors after the defeat against Napoli.

As Calciomercato.com reported, what emerged was that the coach will be evaluated at the next international break, but now he has a chance to go into it with some serious momentum.

Cagliari have struggled to start the season (more on them shortly) while Inter play Napoli in a battle of the top two, so the table going into the November break could look far more rosy then it did a week prior.

However, Milan must take care of business in Sardinia. In terms of injury news, there are some long-term absentees that are still not available for selection in Alessandro Florenzi and Ismael Bennacer, both of whom are still recovering from surgery.

Matteo Gabbia has missed the past few games due to a troublesome calf issue he got on Italy duty, and he will not be part of the game, nor will Luka Jovic who continues to battle back problems.

Alvaro Morata suffered an injury in training on Thursday that required him to go to hospital for a CT scan after he collided heads with Strahinja Pavlovic, meaning he will not be available.

Many believed Tammy Abraham or maybe even Noah Okafor would get the nod, but the coach has other plans. Fonseca confirmed that Francesco Camarda will lead the line, getting his first Milan start at 16 years, seven months and 29 days old.

Sky have predicted the rest of the line-up, which features a return to the 4-2-3-1 system after the successful midweek experimentation with a five-man defence.

Mike Maignan should be in goal with Emerson Royal, Malick Thiaw, Strahinja Pavlovic and Theo Hernandez the back four. Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders are down as the double pivot.

Samuel Chukwueze is tipped to resume his place on the right side of the attack, with Christian Pulisic the playmaker, Rafael Leao on the left and Camarda up front.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson Royal, Thiaw, Pavlovic, Theo Hernandez; Reijnders, Fofana; Chukwueze, Pulisic, Leao; Camarda.

The opponents

Last season was Cagliari’s first back in the top flight after a brief stint in Serie B, and they managed to stay above the dotted line – just. They finished with 36 points from 38 games (eight wins, 12 draws, 18 losses), which put them 16th but just one point above Frosinone in the last relegation place.

Claudio Ranieri left as head coach after doing his bit, with the Rossoblu turning to Davide Nicola to take over, formerly of Genoa, Torino, Salernitana and Empoli.

It was clear after 2023-24 that investment in the squad was needed to guarantee a more pleasant ride this season, but they spent €11.3m. Nadir Zortea (from Atalanta, €5m), Sebastiano Luperto (from Empoli, €3.5m) and Matt Felici (from Feralpisalo, €2m) were the only notable additions.

Jose Luis Palomino came on a free from Atalanta to add some experience to the back line and they also loaned Michel Adopo from the Bergamaschi. Gianluca Gaetano arrived on loan too, from Napoli.

The bigger news was outgoings: Alberto Dossena went to Como for €8m, Ibrahim Sulemana joined Atalanta for €7.5m and Giorgio Altare headed to Venezia for €1m. Nahitan Nandez went to Al-Qadsiah in Saudi Arabia after his deal ran out.

After 11 games in Serie A, Cagliari are exactly where they finished last season (16th) with nine points. The most notable results have been a 3-2 win against Torino, a 1-1 draw away at Juventus and a 3-2 win at Parma.

In terms of team news, Nicola confirmed in his presser – in which he was highly complimentary of Milan – that there are no injuries. That means defender Yerry Mina and midfielder Michel Adopo are the only absences, due to injury.

Sky report that Scuffet will be in goal with Zappa, Palomino, Luperto and Augello as the back four. Marin and Makoumbou should be the midfield pairing, then Zortea, Gaetano and Luvumbo as the trident behind Piccoli.

Predicted Cagliari XI (4-2-3-1): Scuffet; Zappa, Palomino, Luperto, Augello; Marin, Makoumbou; Zortea, Gaetano, Luvumbo; Piccoli.

Head to head

Milan have played against Cagliari 91 times in their almost 125-year history, with 54 of the games being wins and only nine defeats, meaning 28 draws.

Last season the Rossoneri actually beat their opponents from Sardinia three times, starting with 3-1 victory away from home in the league thanks to goals from Noah Okafor, Fikayo Tomori and Ruben Loftus-Cheek.

Early in January Stefano Pioli’s side ran out 4-1 winners in the Coppa Italia too. Luka Jovic got a brace, Chaka Traore scored and so did Rafael Leao.

The triptych was completed in May with a 5-1 home win in the league. Ismael Bennacer, Christian Pulisic (x2), Tijjani Reijnders and Leao all netted.

Milan have lost just one competitive game against Cagliari since October 1998, which was a 2-1 league defeat in 2017.

Key facts and stats

➤ Cagliari have lost 47 out of 82 games played against AC Milan in Serie A, more than against any other side in the topflight (W8, D27)– the Rossoneri are also the opponent against which the Rossublù have the the lowest win percentage (9.76%) among those faced more than 12 times in the competition.

➤ Cagliari have won only one of their last 39 matches against AC Milan in Serie A (D8, L30): 2-1 at home on 28th of May 2017. Indeed, the Rossoneri have obtained eight wins in their last nine matches against the Sardinian team in the topflight (D1), conceding only three goals in this period.

➤ Milan have scored in each of their last 13 away matches against Cagliari in Serie A (22 goals in total, an average of 1.7 per match); this run is the Rossoneri’s longest current streak of scoring in consecutive away games against an opponent (13).

➤ Milan have kept a clean sheet in four of their last seven Serie A games – as many times as in the previous 17 games played in the competition – scoring 12 goals and conceding five in this period.

➤ Milan won their last away game in Serie A (1-0 vs Monza) and could record two away wins in a row without conceding in a single top-flight campaign for the first time since March 2022 (two in that case too, the second of which was against Cagliari).

➤ Cagliari have conceded at least two goals in seven of their last eight Serie A games, shipping 17 goals in total; fewer than only Hellas Verona (21) in this period. Furthermore, no team have more games with at least two goals conceded in Serie A this term (seven like Genoa, Hellas Verona and Venezia).

➤ Cagliari have failed to score in four of their six home matches played in Serie A 24/25, including the last one (2-0 vs Bologna), while scoring only four goals in this period; overall, only Empoli have had more home matches without finding the net (five) and scored fewer goals (zero) than the Rossoblù at home in this campaign.

➤ Milan have scored the highest percentage of their goals in the first half in this Serie A (11/17, 65%) while on the other hand, only Genoa and Lecce (both two) have scored fewer goals than Cagliari (four) in the first half of the current campaign.

➤ Zito Luvumbo scored his first goal in a Serie A home match against AC Milan, in the 3-1 defeat on 27th of September 2023 at Unipol Domus. After his goal against Lazio in the last match, the Rossoblù striker could score in two matches in a row in the competition for the first time in his career.

➤ Christian Pulisic scored his only brace in Serie A against Cagliari, doing so in the 5-1 win by the Rossoneri at the Meazza, in May 2024. In general, against no other team has the American been involved in more goals in Serie A (three versus Cagliari – also against Monza).

Ones to watch

In Milan’s case the player that everybody will be watching with interest is of course Camarda in his first senior start, but Leao will have to do his bit to build on the Real Madrid performance and help the teenager through.

Thiaw was excellent in midweek and Reijnders continued his brilliant form so they will be crucial down the spine, though in defence it is Emerson against Luvumbo which looks like the toughest duel on paper.

Luperto and Palomino are the experienced centre-back pairing that Cagliari can call upon to try and make Camarda’s evening a tough one, while Marin was linked with Milan before and is a dynamic midfield presence.

Piccoli will lead the line and he has a couple of goals in the league so far, as does Marin, but it has generally been a struggle for the Rossoblu in attack.

Prediction

Given how strongly Milan have performed in this fixture and the boost they should take from the win over Real Madrid, this simply has to be three points to try and generate a positive spin going into the break for once.

Cagliari 0-2 Milan