Serie A preview: Bologna vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

Will it be a case of better late than never? Thursday night will yield the answer as AC Milan travel to face Bologna in the rescheduled Serie A clash.

Milan have found themselves in a position where they can barely afford any more mistakes if they are to get into the top four, and that starts with the match at the Stadio Renato dall’Ara against a side also hoping for a late surge.

Sergio Conceicao did not speak to the media in a pre-match press conference. While he has skipped them sometimes due to limited time there did see to be a window to hold one, and not doing so – especially after two damaging results with two big games to come – has raised some eyebrows.

Game date: Thursday, February 27 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET) Venue: Stadio Renato dall’Ara Referee: Maurizio Mariani (VAR: Di Bello)

Team news

As a reminder, Bologna-Milan was originally meant to be played at the end of October, but what emerged in the 48 hours leading up to kick-off was nothing short of a farce in the end.

Two days before the game the idea of it being postponed due to adverse weather in the Emilia region and the prospect of flooding around the stadium first emerged, then the official announcement came on the Friday.

Bologna defended the decision through their CEO, but it would be fair to say Milan did not. The Rossoneri and Lega Serie A were in favour or playing the match behind closed doors or moving it to a neutral ground, and at one point Milan had plans in place for four different trips.

Nonetheless, here we are at the end of February, with a gap in the schedule finally having opened up to play the game. However, Milan and Bologna come into it in much different circumstances this time, hoping to give meaning to a troubled campaign.

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The need for the Diavolo to bounce back cannot be understated after they were knocked out of the Champions League by Feyenoord last Tuesday then beaten by Torino on Saturday. Thus, the European campaign ended early this season, and there may be no chance to avenge it in 2025-26.

There has once again been a lot of talk in the build-up to the game about the ‘Fantastic Four’, or perhaps the ‘Flop Four’ given they have one goal in 168 minutes together on the field. Conceicao is expected to break them up in some way, with Rafael Leao perhaps paying the price.

In terms of injury news, the long-term absentees remain Alessandro Florenzi and Emerson Royal. Ruben Loftus-Cheek is getting closer to a return but will not be available, while Kyle Walker will also sit out. Both Englishmen could be back after the Lazio fixture at the weekend.

Defensively, there is just one change expected with Malick Thiaw set to be benched after his poor performance against Toro. Barring that, things remain unchanged, so Conceicao will start; Mike Maignan, Alex Jimenez, Fikayo Tomori, Strahinja Pavlovic and Theo.

Tijjani Reijnders will remain in the middle, but not in the double pivot with Yunus Musah set to retain his spot, though Youssouf Fofana is now expected to join him sitting deeper.

Reijnders, then, will lead that midfield, with Christian Pulisic and Joao Felix sitting either side of him, alternatively, Musah could start on the right with Reijnders sitting in the pivot. Leading the line will be Santiago Gimenez, as per.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Jimenez, Tomori, Pavlovic, Theo; Fofana, Musah; Pulisic, Reijnders, Felix; Gimenez

The opponents

For Bologna, this was always going to be a case of ‘hard act to follow’ after they finished fifth in Serie A last season. In doing so they qualified for the Champions League, having made their last appearance in Europe’s top club competition in the 1964–65 season, when it was the European Cup.

What didn’t help is that their head coach Thiago Motta decided to depart for Juventus, while Joshua Zirkzee and Riccardo Calafiori – two of the main architects from the squad – departed for the Premier League, joining Manchester United and Arsenal respectively.

Rather then spend the over €100m they received from sales on big names, they spread their bets. Thijs Dallinga arrived from Toulouse for €15m to replace Zirkzee, and Nicolo Cambiaghi joined from Atalanta for €10m.

Emil Holm from Spezia and Martin Erlic from Sassuolo (both around €7m) were the only other summer signings over €5m. Samuel Iling-Junior and Tomasso Pobega joined from Aston Villa and Milan respectively on initial loan deals.

The only change they really made in the winter mercato was at right-back, with Stefan Posch heading to Atalanta and Davide Calabria being signed to replace him, ending his 18-year association with the Rossoneri.

Vincenzo Italiano was poached from Fiorentina to replace Motta and he had a rough start, winning just one of his first eight league games in charge (against rock-bottom Monza) which left them close to the relegation zone. In addition, the Rossoblu would lose four of their first five Champions League games to effectively ensure their early exit.

However, the team from Emilia had an upturn at the end of October, winning six of their next eight Serie A fixtures, including beating Roma and Fiorentina. They began 2025 with entertaining 2-2 draws at home to Roma and away against Inter.

The new calendar year has been mixed for Italiano’s men as they have lost just once, but it was the most recent game, a 2-0 Derby dell’Emilia defeat to Parma. They did, though, beat Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League and Atalanta in the Coppa Italia, so things finally began to click.

In terms of injury news, Holm is out with a first degree lesion to the medial flexors of the left thigh. He should return in the second half of March. The same applies to Pedrola, while Odgaard will also miss out with a muscle injury and should be back in mid-March.

Despite the humiliating 2-0 loss against Parma at the weekend, there should be no defensive changes made by Vincenzo Italiano so the backline should be made up of Ravaglia, Calabria, Beukema, Lucumi and Miranda.

Ahead of them, Freuler and another Rossonero Tommaso Pobega are expected either side of Moro – which should stay as a bank of three, rather than splitting into a 2-1-esque system.

Dan Ndoye and Cambiaghi should be deployed on the wings for the Rossoblu and this leaves Castro to lead the line.

Predicted Bologna XI (4-2-3-1): Ravaglia; Calabria, Beukema, Lucumi and Miranda; Freuler, Moro, Pobega; Ndoye, Castro, Cambiaghi.

Head to head

In their 125-year history, Bologna are the team that AC Milan have played the sixth-most competitive games against. The record is as follows: 186 matches across all competitions with 87 wins, 47 draws and 52 defeats, a win rate of 46.8%.

Milan won the game at the Dall’Ara last season in round one of the season. Olivier Giroud got the opening goal after just 11 minutes, and then ten minutes later Christian Pulisic marked his debut for the club with a goal of his own.

The game back at San Siro was an entertaining one, as Zirkzee but Bologna ahead after half an hour, then Loftus-Cheek scored a brace to put the Rossoneri in front. His second was in the 83rd minute, yet a penalty in added time gave Riccardo Orsolini the chance to earn a draw, which he took.

What is rather remarkable is that Milan have lost only two away games against Bologna this millenium, and they were the first two games that they played, in 2000-01 and 2001-02.

Key facts and stats

➤ AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 17 games against Bologna in Serie A (W13 D4) – Bologna’s last win came back in January 2016 (1-0 at the Meazza stadium courtesy of a goal from Emanuele Giaccherini) – only against three sides have the Rossoneri had a longer unbeaten streak in the top-flight: Catania (26), Chievo (25) and SPAL (26).

➤ Following their 2-2 draw in their last match against AC Milan in January 2024, Bologna could avoid defeat in consecutive matches against the Rossoneri in Serie A for the first time since doing so between 2011 and 2012: two draws in a row under Stefano Pioli.

➤ Excluding the first matchday, Bologna and AC Milan (both 41 points in the current league season) will face each other in a match with exactly the same points tally for the first time since MD16 of the 2017/18 campaign (21 points each in that case): the Rossoneri won 2-1 at the Meazza stadium in that case.

➤ Bologna’s last home win against AC Milan in Serie A came back in March 2002 (2-0, goals from Salvatore Fresi and Julio Cruz), going winless in 18 against them on home soil since then (D5 L13), only against Juventus (21, current open streak) have the Emilians recorded a longer home run without a win in the top- flight.

➤ After losing their most recent match against Parma, Bologna could lose two games in a row in Serie A for the first time since January 2023 (against Roma and Atalanta in that case).

➤ Bologna are unbeaten in 15 of their last 16 home league games (W7 D8), with their only defeat in this period coming against Hellas Verona. In addition, the Emilians have won their last three games at the Dall’Ara and could win four home matches in a row in Serie A for the first time since February 2024.

➤ After losing against Torino, AC Milan could lose at least two games in a row in Serie A for the first time since doing so between January and February 2023 (three in that case, against Lazio, Sassuolo and Inter).

➤ Bologna have spent the fewest minutes trailing in home Serie A matches this season (only 42), while AC Milan (222) rank ninth for most minutes leading away from home in the competition this term.

➤ Santiago Castro (six goals in the current league season), could become only the second foreign player to score at least seven goals in a Serie A season before turning 21 for Bologna, after Harald Nielsen in 1962/63 (seven) and in 1961/62 (eight).

➤ Tijjani Reinders has scored eight goals in the current league season (all from open play), the last AC Milan central midfielder to have scored more goals excluding penalties in a Serie A campaign was Antonio Nocerino in 2011/12 (10).

Ones to watch

Starting with the hosts, Dan Ndoye has all the tools to torment Theo Hernandez tomorrow night, and if the Swissman is not given the apt attention, then he will cause danger for the backline, especially if Davide Calabria supports him well.

We’re staying on Bologna’s right, and also going to put forward Calabria. It almost writes itself but reports have already suggested that the game will be an ’emotional’ one for him. Perhaps, he could get a bit of revenge, if you will, on Sergio Conceicao for his move.

Fikayo Tomori is someone who needs to be at his best, despite the minimal pressure after Thiaw’s performance at the weekend. If he does not impress in this game, perhaps Matteo Gabbia could be introduced back into the side, or at least given a chance to be.

Joao Felix is an intriguing player, and whilst he has shown signs of things since joining on loan, he has failed to really establish himself as a key player for the Rossoneri, which is only a frustration. Given he is expected to start ahead of Leao, a good performance is a must.

Prediction

Given both sides are still fighting for a European place, and with the Champions League a possibility, it may be a really cagey game. With fine margins splitting both teams, it could be too difficult to tell them apart on Thursday.

Bologna 1-1 Milan