Saturday League One and League Two Tips: Back Imps for fourth away draw in 25/1 treble | OneFootball

Michael Skubala's Lincoln travel to Exeter this Saturday

Our EFL man Alan Dudman previews this weekend's action and he goes for a massive treble in League One...

League One

Leg 1: Exeter v Lincoln City, Saturday 12:30: Back The Draw @ 11/5

Exeter's home form is keeping with four wins and just four conceded hold an impressive defensive record - indeed their seventh shut-out in League One this season which is more than any other club.

With that in mind the Under 2.5 Goals is probably not a bad price at 3/4 on the Sportsbook as Lincoln have only scored nine times from their seven games away thus far and the Grecians earned a hard fought 1-0 victory over Charlton last Saturday with just 0.70xG.

Lincoln only fared marginally better on the xG metric with 0.8 at Bristol Rovers last weekend with the Gas on just 0.32 and that was Lincoln's third draw on the road (with only one defeat away in seven).

It could be a case of considering the 1-1 and 0-0 here as no side's games have seen fewer goals than Exeter in League One this season (24 - F14 A10). Indeed, the Grecians have neither scored nor conceded more than twice in any of their 13 games so far. but I am happy to stick up the draw outright to try and boost our acca.

KEY OPTA STAT: Lincoln have lost just one of their last 16 away league games (W9 D6), going down 3-0 at Crawley last month.

Leg 2: Stockport County v Wrexham, Saturday 15:00: Back BTTS 'No' @ 11/10

We're somewhat going against the market here with the BTTS 'Yes' as favourite at 8/11 and the 'No' at 11/10, but I'm zoning in on Wrexham's away form of just F6 A6 - which is impressive defensively.

That particular 'No' for BTTS bet has landed five times in League One with Wrexham so far and five of their last seven have been Under 2.5 Goals and Saturday will be a good test to see if Phil Parkinson's backline can pass the test against County side that have hit 15 at home this term.

They will also have to keep a watchful eye on Louie Barry and his 11 goals in all comps from 16 games and he helped himself to a brace in the thrashing of Reading last month and also scored last weekend in the 5-0 drubbing of Bolton.

No side has conceded fewer goals (10) or kept more clean sheets (8) than Wrexham in League One so far this season according to Opta and we can pin our hopes on that stat.

KEY OPTA STAT: Stockport County have won six of their last seven Football League games against Wrexham (L1), though did lose their last such meeting with the Welsh side in April 2-1.

Leg 3: Cambridge United v Barnsley, Saturday 15:00: Back Cambridge @ 3/1

Cambridge's surge in form went from sugar-rush to no-rush last weekend as they were hammered in their derby at Peterborough 6-1. And as always with a heavy defeat, the natural reaction is to push out the price.

Prior to last weekend, Garry Monk had finally got a tune out of his side with three straight League One victories (after the longest barren spell of all time), and in the heat of the derby they were humbled. Posh when on song with their pace can rip teams apart so it will be time for Monk to ask for a serious response.

Barnsley deserve their price this Saturday with five wins on the road but I don't think Cambridge are as bad as last week as they had turned the corner with three clean sheets in three previously.

Cambridge United have won just one of their last seven league games against Barnsley (D1 L5), though that sole victory did come in their last meeting with the Yorkshire side in March at Oakwell (2-0) and the Tykes are usually a short price anyway.

KEY OPTA STAT: Cambridge have won their last two home league games (2-0 v Wigan, 1-0 v Burton). They last won more consecutively in September 2022 (4), while they last did so without conceding in February 2022 (3).

League Two

Leg 1: MK Dons v Cheltenham Town, Saturday 15:00: Back MK Dons & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1/1

MK Dons ran out 3-1 winners last weekend against Swindon, but sadly for the column Scott Hogan was not one of the scorers, but I am expecting a similar sort of performance and goal tally for Saturday against a Cheltenham team that have lost four on the road this term.

Cheltenham Town have never won an away Football League games against MK Dons (D1 L3), conceding 2+ goals in each of those matches and while a back outright of the Dons looks fair enough, I would be surprised if they were not good enough for a couple of goals, a their new manager Scott Lindsay has called for more aggression up front.

Indeed, Lindsay earned praise from his opposite number Ian Holloway as the new Swindon boss commented how he'd never seen their shape before as his team struggled with not only MK's wing-backs but also the way they got behind their defence.

MK Dons have lost just one of their eight Football League games against Cheltenham Town (W4 D3), scoring 18 goals in total in that time so we have to be confident with another home win as Lindsay has done well so far.

KEY OPTA STAT: MK Dons have won their last four league games, last having a longer winning run in February/March 2022

Leg 2: Doncaster Rovers v Salford City, Saturday 15:00: Back Doncaster @ 7/10

Doncaster are only three points off the League Two leaders and should justify their odds-on price at home this weekend as we continue to oppose Salford.

Having won 11 consecutive home league games between February and September, Doncaster have won just one of their last five (D2 L2) and one of those losses was the surprising home reverse to Bromley last month.

However, Salford are just too inconsistent. Karl Robinson's side have won four and lost four at home but have drawn five and lost one on the road - and they don't score many either with just 14 in 15 games. Only three teams have scored fewer goals than the Ammies this term.

Last weekend Donny earned a point against Notts County in a classic game of two halves. The Magpies were given far too much respect and dominated the first 45 minutes, but McCann roused his team for a much better second half and they were far more aggressive in the press.

None of the top five won last weekend but I see a point against County as a good one and while the BTTS 'No' looks viable considering Salford's lack of a goal threat, Donny can take heart from their second half showing last weekend.

KEY OPTA STAT: Only Colchester (0) have won fewer away games in League Two this season than Salford City (1). On the other hand, only Notts County (0) have lost fewer on the road than Salford (1).

Leg 3: Newport County v Grimsby Town, Saturday 15:00: Back BTTS 'Yes' @ 8/13

Grimsby have won their last five away league games - they've never won six in a row on the road in the Football League and that's testament to the good work David Artell is going at the moment.

His brand of football has been very pleasing and Artell, and the goals have been flowing at both ends as they've conceded 25 this term - which is a lot for a team in the play-off hunt.

Danny Rose grabbed his fifth of the season last weekend in a terrific counter-attacking win at AFC Wimbledon, who had previously won all five at home with just two conceded at Plough Lane prior to Saturday.

Still not quite there defensively, I see Grimsby as a runner to win this, and while Newport County have failed to win any of their last four Football League games against Grimsby Town (D2 L2), failing to score more than one goal in any of those matches they have netted 12 at home and might have the odd chance or two against Artell's defence.

KEY OPTA STAT: After failing to win any of their seven away Football League games against Newport County between 1972 and 2021 (D2 L5), Grimsby Town are since unbeaten on their last two visits to Rodney Parade in the EFL (W1 D1).

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