Republic of Ireland v Bulgaria Tips: Back cards in Dublin | OneFootball

Republic of Ireland boss Heimir Hallgrimsson celebrates victory in the first leg

After a raft of yellows in the first leg, Dave Tindall is backing cards when Republic of Ireland host Bulgaria in the second leg of their Nations League playoff on Sunday...

Republic of Ireland v BulgariaSunday 23 March, 19:45

Irish in the driving seat

For any side playing the away leg of a two-match playoff first, drawing is a more than acceptable result. Get them back to your place and finish it off.

The Republic of Ireland did even better than that against Bulgaria in a rather subdued Hristo Botev Stadium in Plovdiv on Thursday night.

The hosts took a very early lead but, undaunted, the visitors hit back via goals from Finn Azaz and Matt Doherty before half-time and held on in a rather scrappy second 45 to put themselves in great position to claim the prize on offer in these playoffs: retaining their position in League B.

Bulgarians have mountain to climb

You sense Bulgaria had to win that first leg or at the very least claim a draw. But defeat now looks set to condemn them to another campaign in League C.

They took their goal well, Marin Petkov finishing off after a lovely set-up from Filip Krastev but showed their limitations by giving up that lead before the break.

Both Irish goals were headers and Bulgaria couldn't find any sort of real response with the stats showing them having just four shots although three of those were on target.

Forcing just two corners again highlighted their limitations in attack and the last time they headed to the island of Ireland they were thumped 5-0 by Northern Ireland.

That Windsor Park clash was only in October and Bulgaria's only win since then was a 1-0 away victory against Luxembourg.

Outrights should be swerved

While it's tempting to think that Heimir Hallgrimsson's hosts will kick on and complete the job in style, it's something of a fool's errand to back teams at short prices when they don't have to win.

The Republic of Ireland are 4/7 to win again, with Bulgaria 5/1 and The Draw 3/1.

Not that I'd be rushing to back the visitors given their continued struggles but there are better bets elsewhere.

Conflicting evidence for goal markets

Both sides managed just three goals in six matches in the group phase so it was something of a surprise that Over 2.5 landed in the first leg.

And given that there were just six shots on target, Unders backers could feel a little aggrieved.

However, the Bulgarian camp isn't exactly the happiest so if this starts getting away from them there's a scenario where they could fold and the Irish rack up three or four.

But back to evidence for Unders, just one of the the ROI's last eight home games has witnessed over 2.5 goals.

In short, it could easily go either way. Overs is the underdog at 21/20 if you want to back it again.

Card count offers a way in

One thing that definitely stood out from the first leg is the amount of yellow cards.

There were eight of them, four for each side, and seven of those bookings came after the break when things got scrappy and tetchy.

Arguably there should have been a red for Nikolay Minkov for a terrible challenge on Rocco Vata in injury-time.

Given the way the match ended and it being so fresh in the memory, there has to be a chance that some of it will carry over to the second leg.

In which case, let's have a bet on bookings and go high at Over 5.5 which is 17/10.

Turkish official Umut Meler showed two red cards the last time he took charge of an international (Oman v Saudi Arabia).

That was in December while he flashed nine yellows in England's win over Slovakia in the Euros last summer.

Of course, if the tie is close and in the balance as full-time approaches, bookings for time-wasting enter the equation too.

Recommended bets

1pt - Back Over 5.5 Cards @ 17/10

Staked: 62.5pts

Returned: 48.47pts

P/L: -14.03pts

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