PSG v Liverpool Tips: Make underrated hosts your headline selection | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Ousmane Dembele has been outstanding in 2025

A thrilling encounter is on the cards and the home side deserve backing when they take on Liverpool at Parc des Princes on Wednesday night, writes James Eastham...

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Paris-SG vs LiverpoolWednesday, 20:00

Tough night awaits the Reds

PSG are clear favourites to win on the night heading into this potentially show-stopping Champions League Last 16 first leg encounter, and it is frankly difficult to argue with that state of affairs given how the club from the French capital have played in 2025.

Luis Enrique's are on a stunning run of 15 wins and a draw from 16 games in all competitions since the turn of the year, including a series of 10 straight victories from the last 10 outings, with 36 goals scored in those 10 matches.

Last weekend, PSG thrashed fellow Champions League Last 16 outfit Lille 4-1 in Ligue 1; they were 4-0 up at half-time, before easing off. And they defeated Brest 10-1 on aggregate in the previous round of this competition.

Things went well the last time PSG hosted Premier League visitors to Parc des Princes, too: in January, on the penultimate matchday of the Champions League group phase, Paris came from 2-0 down to win 4-2 at home to Manchester City, thanks to goals from Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, Joao Neves, and Goncalo Ramos.

On the Exchange, PSG are 2.44 to secure a first-leg lead. Liverpool are 2.94, while The Draw is 3.85. Those odds are the market's way of saying that PSG have a 41 per cent chance of winning on the night, with Liverpool given a 34 per cent chance, and the Draw rated as a 26 per cent chance.

Those prices look about right to us, so this is a market we would leave alone.

Back Paris to make last eight

Instead, we prefer PSG in the To Qualify market. Liverpool are deservedly favourites to go through - they are, after all, top of the Premier League, Europe's best-ranked top division, and they finished first during the Champions League group phase as well - but are they as superior to PSG as the market suggests?

On the Sportsbook, Liverpool are 1/2 in the To Qualify market, while PSG are 31/20. In other words, the market believes Liverpool have a 67 per cent chance of making the quarter-finals, with PSG granted just a 39 per cent chance.

We say again: we believe Liverpool deserve to be favourites. Yet PSG appear underestimated, given how they have played over the past two months.

It is also worth noting that, for all the plaudits Liverpool have rightly received under Arne Slot this season, there is vast European experience in Parisian ranks, via the likes of goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, centre-back Marquinhos, and winger Dembele, magnificently converted into a striker since the turn of the year.

We are happy to back PSG in the To Qualify market, as we believe they are underrated. If they shine in this first leg, you might also find their odds shorten in this market ahead of the return leg at Anfield on March 11.

Dembele set to star again

We mentioned that Dembele is now playing as a centre-forward, and his transformation has been nothing short of spectacular.

In 13 appearances across all competitions in 2025, the ex-Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona winger has scored 20 times, meaning he has already comfortably broken the goals total he set in the entire previous calendar year.

On the Sportsbook, the 27-year-old is the 5/4 favourite in the Player To Have 2 Or More Shots On Target market. Even though he leads the pack, we still feel he is worth backing. He will operate in a far more central position than he normally has done in the past, and the service that he will receive - primarily from Barcola on one wing, and either the in-form Desire Doue or Khvicha Kvaratskhelia on the other - should be excellent.

Fabian Ruiz deserves support

Another player to focus on in the Shots markets is Fabian Ruiz. The Spain international is an almost certain starter in PSG's midfield three, alongside Neves and Vitinha.

Under Luis Enrique, Fabian Ruiz has been given licence to get forward into shooting positions. This tactic has proved effective in Europe: the Spain international has managed at least one shot on target in four of the five Champions League games he has started this season.

We made a profit backing the player in the Player To Have 1 Or More Shots on Target market in PSG's 4-2 home win over Manchester City in January. We are happy to take the same approach here.

Recommended bets

Back PSG in the To Qualify market @ 31/20Back Ousmane Dembele in the Player To Have 2 Or More Shots On Target Market @ 5/4Back Fabian Ruiz in the Player To Have 1 Or More Shots On Target Market @ 7/5

James' 2024-25 Champions League P/L