Premier League Tips: Why are Aston Villa struggling and how to profit | OneFootball

English Premier League

Unai Emery's Villa are in bad form

Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - takes a look at Aston Villa's nosedive in results that has seen them pick up just seven points from their last seven games. What's going wrong and how do we profit from their dip in form?

Wobbly Villa are easy to play against

Aston Villa have won just five of their last 16 Premier League games.

They are quietly going through a tough spell under Unai Emery and not many people, including the markets, are noticing.

Those that took the 1.57 on a Villa win against Palace will be well aware of their drop-off now. That failure to deliver for odds-on punters means Villa, according to the form table over the last seven gameweeks, are 16th having taken just seven points from their last seven games.

Data shows us that teams that qualify for Europe that didn't in the previous season are likely to regress in the league the following season and the early signs from Villa suggest that they may follow suit.

The numbers tell us that 24 of 34 teams who qualify for Europe that didn't the season before won fewer points in the next season. Villa won a remarkable 68 points last season under Emery in what was a season to remember for the Villa faithful. It's taking them to some special places this season.

Yet for every historic victory over Bayern Munich there has been home draws with Bournemouth and Palace.

If they continue at this current points per game ratio, they'll only amass 60 and probably fall short of European qualification.

It's so difficult anyway to keep players fit and in-form playing in such an energy sapping league where there are no gimmies. When you throw the emotions of Champions League into the mix, it becomes such a difficult task to remain consistent.

That is the curse of overachievement - just ask Eddie Howe at Newcastle or Roberto De Zerbi about his time at Brighton. Both clubs found it difficult to sustain form after an unexpected and thrilling European qualification.

Villa are a shambles defensivley

Of course, it is hard to be too critical of Emery when it comes to analysing his tenure at Villa - he is a God-like figure to the locals, and rightly so.

But something is broken at the moment. It's clearly starting to irk Emery, who was very blunt and spiky in post match media duties after the Palace draw when asked about how he plans to fix the current issues, especially defensively.

It was pointed out to him that it's become far too easy to create high-quality chances against them.

Palace boss Oliver Glasner spotted that on Saturday and played a blinder in devising a very direct gameplan into Ismaila Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta to expose Villa's high-line and his front two delivered his plan to perfection. Mateta with his hold-up play and Sarr with his powerful and dangerous running. The home side couldn't handle the pair.

It is now just one clean sheet in Villa's last 17 Premier League games after Palace, led by Sarr, managed to score twice at Villa Park. They have now conceded a whopping 31 goals in that period to a per game average of 1.82. Only Wolves and West Ham have conceded more goals in that time.

The problems facing Emery is similar to the ones at Manchester City in terms of the high-quality of chances they are shipping in transition. When teams break on the Villa backline, as shown by Palace, it's far too easy for the opposition to pummel Emi Martinez's goal with dangerous opportunities that are leading to goals being scored.

Until Emery finds a solution to stop such scenarios occurring, I'm going to be taking the same approach as I have done with Manchester City and laying Villa in the Premier League when the prices are right.