Premier League Tips: Take on Haaland in top goalscorer market with 35/1 Alexander Isak | OneFootball

English Premier League

Back Alexander Isak to win PL top goalscorer, says Jones Knows

Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - is scratching his head at why Erling Haaland is still odds-on in the Premier League top goalscorer market and advises a play at 35/1 to get him beat...

This isn't the Man City we know, so take on Haaland

If you hadn't heard, Manchester City have gone from champions to chumps.

The maddening 2-1 defeat to Manchester United on Sunday deepened the crisis facing City boss Pep Guardiola, whose side have only won one of their last 11 games in all competitions.

Guardiola has even now questioned his own ability at being able to fix this dramatic slide in form. As ever, the markets have reacted accordingly to City in the Premier League winner market. They are out to 17/1 on the Betfair Exchange - and even if you added a zero to that price and allowed me to bet with your money, I wouldn't back them for the title.

The spark is gone. As is the fear factor that usually engulfs opposition team. There is no relentless strangling of games. And most interestingly for this particular betting strategy, Erling Haaland isn't scoring goals.

He is a goal-hanger finisher, one that requires the system to provide him with chances. When the chances don't come, Haaland's powers diminish and the goals dry up.

Sunday's defeat makes it just three goals in his last 11 Premier League games.

Since signing for City to the middle of October this year, Haaland has worked at a goals per game ratio of a staggering 1.09.

In his last 11 games that ratio is now at 0.3 per game. With City in this malaise that shows no sign of improvement, I'd be surprised if that figure increases by much over the next two months.

Yet, Haaland is being priced up like he's playing for the Manchester City of old - he's not. This new version of City are a shadow of the former side and I'm not seeing much evidence things will change.

How do we profit from false favourite Haaland?

The 8/13 quotes on him winning the top goalscorer crown have the look of a false favourite considering he's level with Mohamed Salah on 13 goals.

The Liverpool man is next up in the market at 23/10 and that is a price worth some respect when you assess the facts of Salah playing for the most likely team to the win title and showing some of his best-ever form in front of goal.

He's still a risky proposition at a short price though, despite him being a great alternative to Haaland due to his contract situation dragging on. Will his motivation dwindle? Could he sign for another club in January?

These are all variables I wouldn't be comfortable with if taking a short price on a player in this type of market.

The price that jumps out is the 35/1 on offer dangled about Alexander Isak with each-way stakes in mind for a third of the odds for a top-two finish.

The Newcastle striker has shown since arriving in the Premier League, he's a world-class operator capable of scoring against any opposition. Just look at his performance against Liverpool - he ran Virgil van Dijk ragged as he found the net.

His average of 0.69 goals per 90, scoring 37 goals in 65 appearances, is only bettered by Haaland per 90 of players to have scored 25 or more goals since he signed for Newcastle in August 2022.

The Swede has scored seven in his last eight appearances taking his overall tally in the Premier League to seven and is coming to the boil nicely, so to my maths if he continues to go along in and around his 0.69 rate for the next 22 games, his total goals tally could hit the 20-goal mark.

Thet could be enough to nick the crown this year. He's a big price.