Premier League Finale: Who joins Liverpool & Arsenal in Europe’s elite? | OneFootball

The Premier League draws to a close this weekend with the title race already settled, leaving the real drama to unfold in the fight for Champions League spots.

With the top five guaranteeing entry into next year’s most prestigious club competition, four clubs head into the season finale staking their claims for a place alongside Liverpool and Arsenal.

For some, just a point will do; for others, only victory keeps the dream alive, as we look at how things may pan out in one of the closest top-five races in recent memory.

Field trip for former champs

It’s been a hugely disappointing season for Manchester City, but they can still secure Champions League qualification for a 15th campaign on the trot.

A point will realistically suffice for the dethroned four-time consecutive champions, though Pep Guardiola may have something more on his mind.

City’s formidable record of nine wins from their last 11 Premier League final-day games (L2) puts them in a strong position to add to a 3-1 midweek win over Bournemouth.

The opposition couldn’t have been better than Fulham, a side they last lost to in April 2009 and whose manager cannot be more intimidated by the prospect of facing the coach in the other dugout.

Marco Silva has lost all 14 managerial clashes against teams coached by Guardiola, suggesting Man City could be in for another routine task after winning 4-0 in this corresponding fixture last term.

Another handsome win, coupled with an unlikely, albeit possible Arsenal rout at the hands of Southampton, would help Guardiola avoid finishing outside the top two for only the second time in 16 seasons as a top-flight manager.

In either case, the Cityzens should lock down a top-five spot.

Prediction: Man City to win

Magpies must spread their wings

A costly 1-0 defeat at Arsenal last weekend clipped Newcastle United’s wings, knocking them down from a three-game unbeaten league streak while compromising their top-four quest.

Tied on 66 points with two other sides, Eddie Howe’s charges must bounce back at St James’ Park, where they’ve won their last six Premier League outings via an aggregate score of 20-5.

Anything other than three points against bottom-half Everton would leave their hopes of securing a second Champions League qualification in three years in the hands of others.

However, the Magpies have developed a habit of finishing recent league campaigns on a high, winning their final-day fixture in eight of the last ten seasons (D1, L1).

The tricky part is that they face a high-flying Everton, who could finish a top-flight campaign on a three-game winning run for the first time since 1988/89 after beating Fulham and Southampton.

David Moyes’ men haven’t won on this ground since December 2019 (D1, L3), meaning Newcastle should take a precious win and sign off in style.

Lions looking to add to Old Trafford misery

Despite starting the final weekend outside the top five, Aston Villa trail Chelsea and Newcastle on goal difference alone, so there’s no margin for error in this ‘make or break’ clash against Manchester United.

Ruben Amorim may have squandered his last chance to convince the Theatre of Dreams faithful in the midweek Europa League final as Tottenham Hotspur stunned the Red Devils 1-0 in Bilbao.

No matter the result of this game, the record-time English champions will endure their worst finish in the Premier League but can at least salvage some pride by avoiding the ignominy of 17th place.

United must halt Villa’s three-game winning league streak to achieve that, and their recent record against the Birmingham outfit can inspire confidence among the home fans.

Before a scoreless in October’s reverse fixture, United had won four consecutive meetings with Villa, including back-to-back top-flight triumphs on this ground.

On that basis, it’s hard to back the visitors with conviction.

Prediction: Villa to drop points

Champions League six-pointer

Despite already securing European football for next season, Nottingham Forest can still dine out at Europe’s top table for the first time since 1980/81.

That’s easier said than done since Forest must beat Chelsea and hope Newcastle or Villa lose points, given that there’s a single-point gap between the teams pre-round.

Whether they can hold up their end of the bargain remains questionable after a 2-2 draw against an already-relegated Leicester City condemned them to a third consecutive winless home league outing (D1, L2).

As for Chelsea, the math is simple. Either they take three points at the City Ground or put their fate in others’ hands, though their recent form makes for positive reading.

Enzo Maresca’s men have won six of their last seven matches in all competitions (L1), and another win here would set them up perfectly for Wednesday’s Conference League final.

However, the last three encounters between Forest and Chelsea have yielded mixed results (W1, D1, L1), indicating this game could go either way.

Final verdict

As aforementioned, Man City and Newcastle look primed to clinch their Champions League berths. With all due respect to Fulham and Everton, they should go down on the final day, especially considering they have nothing but pride left to play for.

Meanwhile, Villa’s visit to the Theatre of Dreams could prove a hurdle too high even against a downtrodden Man Utd. Unai Emery has been a miracle worker, and no one would dare to bet against him, but this could be United’s way of affecting a top-five race despite a dire season.

For Forest to beat Chelsea, it would take a Herculean effort, something they’ve been synonymous with throughout the campaign. However, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men still heavily rely on other results going their way, hence a probable finish outside the top six.

With that in mind, the Blues should return to Europe’s elite after a two-year absence, joining Man City and Newcastle in the top five.