Premier League 2024/25: Are the Big Six a good price to finish Top 6 at 4/1? | OneFootball

English Premier League

Mike fancies Ange Postecoglou's Tottenham to finish top six along with the rest of the big six clubs

Mike Norman assesses the Top 4 and Top 6 Finish data from the last eight seasons and tells us why he's backing an Acca at nearly 4/1 that has landed 50% of the time...

Usual suspects dominate Top 4 & Top 6 Finish markets

If you're intending to have a season-long bet in the Betfair Sportsbook's Top 4 and Top 6 Finish markets, you're obviously not expecting to get rich quick, or even get rich at all.

That's because you'll find the likes of Manchester City priced at 1/12 and 1/500 respectively in the two markets, and you'll probably end up being chased by men in white coats if you're of the opinion that they won't finish in those positions.

And then there's Arsenal, who are available to back at just 1/11 to finish in the top four and at 1/40 to finish in the top six.

As I say, you're not getting rich at anytime backing at those prices.

But of course, on the Betfair Sportsbook you can combine a set number of teams to finish in certain positions into one bet, offering much more attractive prices.

You can pick four teams to finish in the top four, or five or six teams to finish in the top six. The choice is yours, so let's look at the teams that finished the season in the top four and top six positions for the last eight years, and see if we can find a season-long bet that gives us a good run for our money.

Top 4 & Top 6 finish teams for last eight Premier League seasons:

2023/24 - Villa break into top four

- Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa- Tottenham, Chelsea

2022/23 - Newcastle break into top four, Brighton into top six

- Man City, Arsenal, Man Utd, Newcastle- Liverpool, Brighton

2021/22 - Big Six

- Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham- Arsenal, Man Utd

2020/21 - Leicester stay in top six, West Ham break into top six

- Man City, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea- Leicester, West Ham

2019/20 - Leicester break into top six

- Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea- Leicester, Tottenham

2018/19 - Big Six

- Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham- Arsenal, Man Utd

2017/18 - Big Six

- Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham, Liverpool- Chelsea, Arsenal

2016/17 - Big Six

- Chelsea, Tottenham, Man City, Liverpool- Arsenal, Man Utd

Nothing immediately jumps out from the above data other than perhaps that the 'big six' domination has been broken in four of the last five seasons, and that a relatively un-fancied team - Newcastle, then Aston Villa - has broken into the top four in each of the last two campaigns.

Newcastle at 2/1 and Villa at 7/2 are contenders to record a Top 4 Finish again this term, but they're much shorter prices now than they were in the seasons they achieved the feat. Outside of Newcatle, Villa and the big six clubs, Brighton are the next team in the market at 12/1.

In addition, as you can see from the below data, Newcastle and Aston Villa are the only two non-big six clubs to finish in the top four in any of the last eight seasons.

Number of times finished in the top four during last eight seasons:

- Manchester City: 8- Liverpool: 7- Chelsea: 5- Tottenham: 4- Manchester United: 4- Arsenal: 2- Aston Villa: 1- Newcastle: 1

From the last eight seasons, the four clubs that have all finished in the top four the most times is the combination of Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham (three times).

Arsenal are of course a much better team now than they were for many of those eight seasons, so backing the four teams named above could be a bit risky. But if the Gunners do finish outside of the top four this season, then the four clubs occupying those positions could easily be the four that have finished there more often than a combination of any other four clubs.

You can back Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham all to record a Top 4 Finish at 11/1, and if you're a fan of that bet then just click on the odds below to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

Number of times finished in the top six during last eight seasons:

- Manchester City: 8- Liverpool: 8- Chelsea: 7- Manchester United: 7- Tottenham: 6- Arsenal: 6- Leicester: 2- Aston Villa: 1- Newcastle: 1- Brighton: 1- West Ham: 1

The above data is the data that fascinates me the most as it screams out that the traditional big six teams finish in the top six more times than not.

North London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham are the two clubs to have finished inside the top six the fewest times yet they've still recorded a top six finish in six (75%) of the last eight seasons.

And if you scroll back up to the season-by-season breakdown you will notice that the big six have finished as the top six teams in the Premier League four times in the last eight campaigns.

Now here's the fascinating part, you can combine all of the big six clubs in a bet to finish top six this season - a bet that has landed in 50% of the last eight seasons - at just shy of 4/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Aston Villa and Newcastle are the two clubs most likely to scupper the bet, but in Villa's case, as we saw with Newcastle last term, it will be difficult for them to perform as well again in the Premier League now that they're also in the Champions League.

As for the Magpies, there's no reason why they won't be in and around the top six again this season, but last term they finished behind five of the big six clubs and only finished ahead of Manchester United on goal difference. I can easily see the Red Devils finishing above Newcastle this term.