Opta rate chances of Newcastle United now making Champions League – Very interesting | OneFootball

Some interesting Opta predictions on the chances of Newcastle United and the other Premier League clubs qualifying for the Champions League.

This follows Saturday’s Premier League matches.

With Newcastle v Nottingham Forest on Sunday afternoon, followed by Man City v Liverpool.

The Forest match already looked huge for Eddie Howe’s side.

However, these Saturday results have now given Champions League hopes a massive boost for Newcastle United:

Everton 2 Man U 2

Bournemouth 0 Wolves 1

Arsenal 0 West Ham 1

Fulham 0 Palace 2

Ipswich 1 Spurs 4

Southampton 0 Brighton 4

Villa 2 Chelsea 1

This is how the Premier League table now currently looks on this Sunday (23 February 2025) morning:

Those results on Saturday for Bournemouth, Chelsea and Fulham, have given a serious boost. Whilst they are probably too far to catch, that Arsenal defeat not bad either, losing at home to a bottom half team.

Newcastle United already had the massive carrot of closing to within three points of Forest and third place in the table if winning this afternoon.

However, victory today would also now mean a guarantee of climbing above Bournemouth and Chelsea (as well as Man City… if they lose by a lot to Liverpool and Newcastle hammer Forest.

A win would also see Newcastle now move five points ahead of Fulham and two points ahead of Villa (plus NUFC with a game in hand on Villa).

With Man City, a more realistic possibility is that if United win today, a very decent chance I think that Liverpool could win at the Etihad and that would mean Pep’s side only ahead of Newcastle on goal difference. With Arsenal losing, a Liverpool victory would surely make absolutely sure they are winning the Premier League title, so a huge incentive for the scousers to get the three points today.

As no doubt you will know, the top four in the 2024/25 PL table will automatically qualify for next season’s Champions League.

However, there is then the possibility of fifth place also getting a Champions League spot.

Last season was the first time two extra Champions League places were handed to the countries who saw their clubs collectively perform the best in European competitions.

If that had been in place previously, five of the six preceding seasons would have seen the Premier League winning a fifth spot, however, it was Serie A and the Bundesliga clubs who outperformed the English clubs, to each get an extra spot for the 2024/25 Champions League competition.

English clubs were already collectively looking nailed on to get the Premier League one of the two extra Champions League places next season. Then this past week of European matches has improved the situation even further despite Man City losing to Real Madrid. The Premier League is still well clear at the top with their co-efficient average points per competing club, with La Liga looking massive favourites to be second. However, Italy are the next nearest challengers and they have had a nightmare, with only four clubs remaining of the eight who were competing in European competitions this season.

So with it all but a formality that the Premier League will get a fifth Champions League place. This is how Opta currently (before Sunday’s matches) see the chances of the various teams ending up in that top four and five at the end of the season:

As you can see, Newcastle United currently rated as a 19.8% chance of finishing top four and a 38.8% opportunity of ending up top five.

A win over Forest today would see those percentages significantly change for Newcastle United, as well as others.

Certainly, if Newcastle United get the victory (a bonus as well if Man City lost) and move into fifth (and only three points behind Forest), then I’m pretty sure that Opta would then rate Eddie Howe’s side as having more than a 50% chance of ending up in the Champions League by finishing top five.