Opta Predicts Fulham v Man Utd: Back Red Devils win in 8/1 bet builder | OneFootball

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Manchester United's 2025/26 campaign began with a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal at Old Trafford, their 15th Premier League loss under Ruben Amorim.

That is already more defeats than he suffered across 167 matches in the Portuguese Primeira Liga with Sporting CP.

But there were positive signs for the Red Devils, despite the result. They had more than twice as many shots as Arsenal (22 to nine), also registering three times as many attempts from inside the area (15 to five) and enjoying 61.1% of the possession.

New signings Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha looked sharp with several menacing runs at the Arsenal backline, while Benjamin Sesko got 31 minutes off the bench and could be primed for his first start away against Fulham on Sunday.

With the help of Opta insights, it's time to preview the match and pick out our favourite selections that could make up a Bet Builder ahead of the game at Craven Cottage.

Cunha to make his mark

Cunha's performance was a bright spot against Arsenal last week. The Brazil international managed more shots on target (three) and successful dribbles (four) than any other player on the pitch, while only Mbeumo (five) attempted more shots than his four.

The former Wolves forward went closest to scoring for Amorim's side, drawing a wonderful save from David Raya from a tight angle on the left side of the area late in the first half.

No player bettered Cunha's three shots on target across the entire opening matchday in the Premier League, and he has hit the target at least three times in three of his last six matches in the competition.

Cunha is 9/2 to achieve that feat again in west London, while a price of 13/10 for him to attempt four shots in total may also provide value, given his reputation as one of the league's most high-volume shooters.

Since the start of last season, Cunha has averaged the most shots (3.84) and the fourth-most shots on target (1.57) per 90 minutes in the Premier League, among all players to play at least 1,200 minutes. Cunha has also attempted 50 shots in transition in that time, with only Mohamed Salah (70) and Antoine Semenyo (61) registering more.

But backing Cunha to go one better with a goal contribution could be the play this weekend. He is a tempting 9/5 to score anytime, with the 11/10 to score or assist price also holding appeal, given he may play behind Sesko this week having led the line for much of the Arsenal clash.

On Cunha's last visit to Craven Cottage, with Wolves last November, he scored two spectacular goals in a 4-1 win for the visitors, flicking over Bernd Leno for the first then curling home from range to seal his brace. Cunha is 9/1 to score multiple goals again and 70/1 for a hat-trick.

Since the start of last season, only Erling Haaland, Salah (both 21), Yoane Wissa, Chris Wood and Alexander Isak (all 19) have scored more non-penalty Premier League goals than Cunha's 15, while only team-mate Bruno Fernandes has matched his five goals from outside the area in that time.

Only Wood (+7.7) and Mbeumo (+7.3) have overperformed their expected goals figures by a greater margin than Cunha (+6.0, 15 goals from 9 xG) in that span, too.

Mbeumo is worth a look at 23/10 to score any time. He netted four goals against Fulham in Premier League and Championship action for Brentford, only netting more often against Southampton (five) since arriving in England.

It's Sesko who leads the goalscorer betting at 6/4 to net any time, which is another attractive price. But given his limited time working under Amorim, one factor to be wary of is the striker may not get the full 90 minutes.

The 22-year-old arrives with high expectations after he scored 21 goals and registered six assists for Leipzig last campaign. Sesko was the youngest player from Europe's top five leagues to net at least 20 goals in all competitions last season.

But with Cunha having two other clinical finishers playing alongside him, backing him to score or assist could be the most attractive play of the available options.

Since the start of 2023/24, he has registered 13 Premier League assists and his 86 chances created in that time rank 10th among all forwards in the division, so keeping a Cunha assist in play makes sense.

Lukić to put himself about

Saša Lukić likes to get stuck in. Last season, the Fulham midfielder picked up the joint-most yellow cards in the Premier League, with only Liam Delap and Flynn Downes - both of whom played for teams that suffered relegation - matching his 12.

Lukić also committed the fifth-most fouls in the division, with 66 in 30 games, though he walked the disciplinary tightrope well for the most part, avoiding a single sending-off.

And as Fulham battled to a 1-1 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion on matchday one, levelling through Rodrigo Muniz in the 97th minute, it was more of the same.

Lukić committed five fouls at the American Express Stadium, at least two more than any other player on the pitch and the joint-most by any player across matchday one (with West Ham striker Niclas Füllkrug).

Lukić is 8/11 to commit three or more fouls, which he has done in three of his last four Premier League games, and considering some of the talented creative players he is up against, that price could add great value to any Bet Builder.

Both Cunha and Mbeumo were fouled three times apiece by Arsenal last Sunday, with midfield duo Fernandes and Casemiro also drawing two fouls each. No team won more fouls than United (19) across matchday one, with Fulham committing the third-most (15).

Last season, Newcastle United's Bruno Guimarães (108) was the only player to win more fouls than Cunha (71), and the Manchester United player's tendency to pop up in central areas could put him in direct competition with Lukić.

Cunha is 4/6 to be fouled at least three times, while Patrick Dorgu is 11/10 in the same market, with only Yasin Ayari and Dan Ballard matching his four fouls won on the opening weekend of the season.

But including Fulham's serial offender Lukić looks to be the best way of attacking the fouls market, and he could also be worthy of consideration in Betfair's Match Ups betting.

The price of 9/4 for Lukić to be shown a card also looks highly enticing, but he did manage to avoid the referee's notebook at Brighton, so we're sticking with him to commit three or more fouls for our Bet Builder.

Dorgu, who averages 3.4 tackles per 90 minutes in the Premier League and attempted four last week, could be another player worthy of consideration at 1/1 to commit at least two fouls, while combative midfielder Casemiro is 10/11.

Another cagey start anticipated

While United fans might be feeling positive about their prospects following their improved display against Arsenal, they are unlikely to have everything their own way on Sunday.

Indeed, Fulham tend to make things difficult for the biggest clubs in the Premier League. Last season, only champions Liverpool (35) earned more points against top-half teams than Marco Silva's men (30), who achieved victories over Liverpool, Chelsea and Newcastle United.

While United were a long way away from being a top-half side last season, that statistic should warn against expectations of a dominant away win.

Instead, punters might expect Fulham to keep things tight, especially in the early stages. The last four Premier League meetings between Fulham and United have seen a winning goal scored in the 78th minute or later, and all six goals scored in matches between the teams during the last two seasons have come in the second-half.

This was one of only two fixtures to be played four times across 2023/24 and 2024/25 and not see a first-half goal, along with Everton vs West Ham.

Fulham only conceded 24 first-half goals last season, while United scored a mere 15. Only Southampton and Leicester City (12 each) netted fewer.

Amorim's side also grew in stature considerably during the second half of last week's game against Arsenal, when the physicality of their new front three came to the fore.

Fulham, for their part, tend to be strong finishers, thanks in part to the way Silva uses his bench. Muniz's leveller at Brighton was his seventh goal as a substitute since the start of last season, the most of any player in the Premier League, and it would not be a major surprise if Raúl Jiménez is trusted to start over him again.

Muniz is 2/1 to score any time while Jiménez is 9/5 to get on the scoresheet, but Silva's tendency to rotate up front makes it difficult to back either with complete confidence.

A price of 23/10 for the game to be goalless at the break may tempt some, but [4/9] for under 1.5 first-half goals could still boost a Bet Builder while giving more leeway to the attacking talents on display.

Red Devils to bounce back

Though they should expect a difficult test, United are favourites for victory at 23/20, having experienced plenty of joy against Fulham in recent years.

United were unfortunate not to open their account last week and come into this one having only lost one of their last 19 Premier League matches against Fulham, winning 15 and drawing three in that time. That defeat came at Old Trafford, by a 2-1 scoreline in February 2024.

When it comes to Craven Cottage, the Red Devils have won on each of their last eight Premier League trips. They are now bidding to win nine away games in a row against a single opponent for the first time in the competition.

And United's strong record against Fulham has continued amid a difficult time for them in London more generally.

United have only won three of their last 23 away Premier League games in the capital (five draws, 15 defeats), but all three of those triumphs came at Craven Cottage.

Fulham are 11/5 for victory and 4/6 to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market, but they have been one of the Premier League's quietest clubs in the transfer market, only adding backup goalkeeper Benjamin Lecomte for under half a million pounds.

Last week, they had some wasteful Brighton finishing to thank as they escaped with a draw, ending the match with an xG total of just 0.76. Muniz's last-gasp leveller was also just their second shot on target.

Fulham also ended 2024/25 on a run of three straight home defeats, their worst such run in the Premier League since they ended 2020/21 with six consecutive home losses and were relegated.

Silva, meanwhile, has lost seven of his 10 Premier League matches against United (two wins, one draw), only suffering more defeats against Manchester City (12). On home soil, he has lost four out of five against them, only triumphing as Everton boss in 2019.

A tight contest is expected and, while the draw could tempt some at 5/2, United are given a slight edge by the Opta supercomputer going into this one.

After a largely positive pre-season, a strong performance last week, and no fresh injury setbacks, there is enough there for us to get behind Amorim's visitors.