Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace: Back Eagles shots bet at 10/3 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Mike fancies Oliver Glasner's men to rack up plenty of shots at the City Ground

Monday Night Football returns with Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace, and while it might not be the most eagerly anticipated live game of the season so far, Mike Norman seems quite confident about at least one of the bets he's putting up...

Nottingham Forest v Crystal PalaceMonday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Surprisingly good versus surprisingly bad

As a colleague correctly pointed out to me recently, Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace on Monday night is a clash between a Forest team that has performed better than expected this season, against an Eagles side that has performed worse than expected so far this term.

Forest have only lost once, a narrow home defeat to Fulham, and while they've only won two of their other six league games (W2, D4), they have recorded some excellent results against title and top four/six-chasing clubs, most notably a win at Liverpool and draws at both Brighton and Chelsea.

But therein lies the problem. Forest's best performances have been on the road. At the City Ground Nuno Espirito Santo's men are yet to win this term despite being handed a relatively kind run of home games. The defeat to Fulham followed draws at home to Bournemouth and Wolves, while in the EFL Cup they also lost in front of their own fans to Newcastle, albeit via a penalty shoot-out following a 1-1 draw.

In fact, stretching back to last season, Forest have now gone seven games in all competitions without recording a win at the City Ground, and that's concerning if you're thinking of backing them as 29/20 favourites to win on Monday night.

While Forest entered the weekend in the top half of the table (now down to 12th following Saturday's results), Palace remain in the relegation zone with jut three points to their name.

Following a stunning end to last season in which they took 19 of a possible 21 points, scoring a very impressive 21 goals in the process, it's been a surprisingly bad start to this campaign from Oliver Glasner's men. Or at least that's what the Premier League table tells us.

But away defeats to Brentford and Everton were only by single-goal margins, as was the 0-1 home defeat to Liverpool. There's only the 0-2 loss at home to West Ham that can be considered a really poor result. The Eagles had a five-game unbeaten run in all competitions during late August into September, including an excellent draw at Chelsea and a goalless draw against Manchester United.

It just feels like that Glasner's men are on the brink of a good run of results, and given Forest's home form, and the fact that Palace ended last season by beating the likes of Liverpool and Newcastle as well as thrashing West Ham, Man United and Aston Villa, then an away win at 2/1 looks well worth chancing.

Palace shots on target look generously priced

My best bet for this game however, is going to be Crystal Palace to have at least six shots on target at 10/3. And I wouldn't put anyone off backing the seven plus shots on target at 6/1 either. In fact this could be a good opportunity to chance the likes of eight, nine, even 10 Palace shots on target at some very attractive prices.

So what's my thinking behind these shots bets?

Well first, Palace on the road have actually racked up quite a lot of shots for an away side. At Brentford - who I'd rate much better than Forest - they easily won the shots count, registering 14 shots in total with six on target, so the recommended bet would have landed in that game.

At Everton, the Eagles won the shot count emphatically, registering 17 shots with five on target. Even at Chelsea they were only narrowly denied in the shots count, and although they only managed three shots on target in that game I'm not going to let that put me off.

Secondly, we have to consider Forest's shots conceded at the City Ground. And it makes for encouraging reading.

They conceded 38 shots in total in those three home league games, while in the EFL Cup they conceded 12 shots to Newcastle with seven of those being on target.

Forest are already without midfielders Danilo and Ibrahim Sangare so the absence of star man Morgan Gibbs-White and fellow midfielder James Ward-Prowse due to suspension is a massive blow. Hopefully Palace can dominate the midfield battle, and if so, the likes of Eberechi Eze and Jean-Philippe Mateta should get plenty of shots away.

That 10 Palace shots on target price if you're wondering. It's just a mere 70/1!

Get Murillo fouls in your FREE Bet Builder

During another general chat with a colleague the subject of Murillo came up, and how the Forest defender can be worth a look in the fouls markets. So that's exactly what I did.

Interestingly, Forest commit more fouls per game (around 14) in home matches than they do in away games, which is another indicator that they're quite vulnerable at th City Ground and often on the back foot. Murillo has committed five fouls in three home games this term, while he also committed two fouls at Southampton in Forest's last away game.

He's 2/1 to commit at least two fouls on Monday night and if you've still got your completely FREE Bet Builder to use, or if you're just having a bet anyway, then I think that option is well worth considering.

In addition I'll include Palace to win or draw, and we'll add an Eze shot on target (he's averaged at least one per game all season) to complete a near 6/1 Bet Builder.

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