Nine shocking Man City stats that make Pep Guardiola the second-most likely PL manager to leave next | OneFootball

Pep Guardiola is currently facing the most challenging period of his illustrious managerial career.

Typically, a dip in form would be expected, but the fact that it has taken until year nine for him to experience such malaise is a testament to Guardiola’s remarkable track record. In his previous eight campaigns, Manchester City have lifted the Premier League trophy six times — which he gladly reminded Liverpool supporters during a recent 2-0 loss at Anfield — including the last four championships in a row, establishing a modern dynasty unlike any we’ve seen before.

Before his tenure at City, Guardiola managed his boyhood club, Barcelona, for four seasons, winning three La Liga titles. He also spent three years at Bayern Munich, securing a championship each season, despite taking a year-long break in between. Although he recently signed a one-year contract extension amid previous speculation that he could leave after the 2024/25 season, it remains uncertain whether he will enter a tenth year in north-west England, which is remarkable considering his past achievements.

The nature of modern football is results-oriented, with an emphasis on immediate success. As a result, Guardiola is currently the second favourite to become the Premier League’s fifth manager dismissed this season after Gary O’Neil and Russell Martin — who left their respective clubs, Wolves and Southampton, entrenched in a relegation fight — were sacked over the weekend. Both joined Erik ten Hag and Steve Cooper on the unemployment line. Cooper also left Leicester City battling for survival, while Ten Hag was not meeting the expectations of Manchester United, who handed Guardiola his latest defeat.

Before the derby loss, Guardiola conceded that he might be sacked if City’s poor run continues. “I would regret leaving now. I could not sleep, even worse than now. Leaving the situation, impossible.” he told reporters.

“They could sack me. That can happen. But leaving now? No option. If the board is not happy with me, they can do it. But leaving now in this position, no chance. When I feel it is time to leave, I will leave. What we have done is what we have done. The satisfaction to do it is done. I don’t have any target to make my life or my time here completely different. Impossible.”

The mere fact that we are entertaining this notion illustrates how far City has fallen in such a short period of time. Starting as favourites to win an unprecedented fifth consecutive Premier League title, City now finds themselves nine points off the leaders, with a top-four finish seemingly becoming their new target unless they revert to their former selves.

It’s not just their league form that’s concerning. City exited the EFL Cup before the quarter-final phase, and they are also struggling in the Champions League. All of this has created some unbelievable statistics, which you can read as follows.

Relegation form

One thing you must remember is to keep context in mind. While some aspects may seem mundane, it’s important to consider Guardiola and City’s lofty standards. We are not judging him against other coaches, but rather against his own performance. To be blunt: Guardiola’s men are in relegation form, having won only one of their last six Premier League matches. This leaves them 18th in a hypothetical table with only Leicester (one win and four points) and Southampton (one point) below them.

This timeframe also encompasses the last three games of a four-match losing streak, a situation City has not faced since August 2008. Additionally, it marks the first instance in Guardiola’s managerial career where he has suffered four straight league defeats. They have earned just four points and suffered four losses, conceding 12 goals in that time. Only Leicester (16) and Southampton (17) have allowed more goals than City.

Late stage drama

At their peak, which has been infrequent this season, City has the ability to exhaust their opponents to the point of surrender, thwarting any attempts at a comeback. However, they have recently appeared as a shadow of their former selves, particularly at home. After establishing a 3-0 advantage against Feyenoord, following a streak of five consecutive losses, Erling Haaland scored his second goal of the Champions League match in the 53rd minute.

A year ago, teams in Feyenoord’s position would focus on damage control, but this City squad is different; the Rotterdammers pressed forward instead. Anis Hadj Moussa ignited the comeback by scoring in the 74th minute, followed by goals from Santiago Giménez and David Hancko in the final ten minutes. This remarkable turnaround marked the latest instance in Champions League history where a team has come back from a three-goal deficit to avoid defeat.

A few weeks later, City found themselves in a similar situation during the Manchester derby, leading until the 88th minute before ultimately losing 2-1. This match set a record for the latest point in a Premier League game that a reigning champion has led and subsequently lost. Such instances highlight City’s challenges this season, contrasting sharply with their previous dominance.

Unprecedented struggles in Europe

As mentioned earlier, City are not only struggling on the domestic front. In their most recent Champions League match, they suffered a 2-0 defeat against Juventus in Turin. This marks the first time in Pep Guardiola’s managerial career that he has failed to win three consecutive matches in the group or league phase of the Champions League, with one draw and two losses.

Where has the defence gone?

It’s an old sporting adage, but it still rings true: defence wins championships. Let’s take a look at City’s defensive record over the past eight seasons under Guardiola, during which they’ve conceded the following goals per game:

In all those seasons, City has not conceded more than 39 goals, which occurred in Guardiola’s debut campaign when they finished third—marking their lowest placement under his management. Currently, they are in fifth place and have conceded an average of 1.69 goals per game. Remarkably, 23 goals conceded was City’s best defensive performance during the Guardiola era (2018/19), and they have already matched that number this season after just 16 games.

If we step back and consider their performance in all competitions since the beginning of November, only Heidenheim (25) has conceded more goals than City in Europe’s top five leagues (23 in 10 matches). Four of those were conceded against Tottenham, marking the highest number of goals a Guardiola-led team has allowed in a single home league match.

Equally concerning is the fact that Manchester City has gone eight games without a clean sheet in away matches across all competitions. This is the longest such streak of Guardiola’s managerial career, matching a run of eight games without a clean sheet in October 2016. It is likely that this streak will continue when they visit Villa Park this weekend.

When it rains, it pours. Recently, Manchester City found themselves trailing in four consecutive Premier League games, marking the first time since April 2012 that this has happened. In a previous run under Roberto Mancini, they trailed in five consecutive matches. City lost all four of these recent games, despite having previously been unbeaten in 12 straight matches in which they trailed, with 10 wins and 2 draws. Additionally, this was the first time City lost four consecutive Premier League matches since August 2008. It also marked the first instance in Pep Guardiola’s managerial career that he has lost four league matches in a row.

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