Luton v Derby: Both sides to oblige at The Kenny | OneFootball

EFL Championship

Luton have scored in every Kenilworth Road contest this season

Bottom-half scrappers Luton and Derby go head-to-head in Friday night's Championship affair. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is backing goals for both sides at Kenilworth Road...

Luton v DerbyFriday December 20, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Basic errors "killing" Luton

Luton boss Rob Edwards said the number of basic errors Town are making are "killing" their campaign after overseeing a disappointing 2-0 defeat at high-flying Blackburn last weekend. The Hatters chief saw his side compete admirably in the opening half an hour at Ewood Park until a collection of mistakes handed the initiative to their in-form hosts.

Substitute Liam Walsh was sent off with 18 minutes left for a poor and needless challenge, summing his side's efforts up with Edwards commenting, "Away from home, we quietened the crowd, we were fine. Then one missed clearance, we don't deal with the throw-in, a missed tackle. Really poor defending of the box, we're one down. It's killing us right now."

Edwards featured Elijah Adebayo up front with Carlton Morris alongside Jacob Brown in a 3-4-3 system. However, the Hatters are still missing a whole host of front-line operators, particular at the back; Amari'i Bell, Shandon Baptiste, Teden Mengi, Reece Burke, Alfie Doughty, Reuell Walters and Tom Lockyer remain unavailable for Town on Friday night.

Derby deliver big win

Derby head coach Paul Warne was a happy man after seeing the Rams produce their best win of the season with a crushing 4-0 home victory over Portsmouth last Friday night. County were irresistible in the first half against a shellshocked Pompey who had no answer to a blistering 45 minutes which saw the hosts side race into a three-goal lead.

An own goal made it four after the break and Derby could have had further goals with missed second-half opportunities. Reflecting on the win, Warne said: "It was good, but I don't think we played better tonight than we have in any other home game, it's just that goals change games and fortunately tonight we were on the right side of those chances."

It wasn't all good news, mind. Derby were dealt a considerable blow when highly-rated centre-back Eiran Cashin was forced off with a hamstring problem, ruling him out of the festive fixtures. Meanwhile, on-loan Crystal Palace midfielder David Ozoh remains unavailable and is joined on the treatment table by long-term absentee Ryan Nyambe.

County to be competitive at The Kenny

Luton and Derby have returned a split W4-D2-L4 in league meetings this century, although the Hatters have tended to dominate the head-to-head encounters at Kenilworth Road, posting W4-D0-L1 in their last five home clashes against the Rams, the most recent of which was a 1-0 success for Town in a 2021/22 season that ended in relegation for County.

Luton 2.24 have performed in-line with data expectations this season, especially so in front of their own supporters (W5-D3-L3). The Hatters have won the Expected Goals (xG) battle in seven of those showdowns and managed W5-D3-L1 when welcoming sides outside of the top-six, arriving at this encounter unbeaten in their most recent five home league fixtures.

Derby 3.70 have done the bulk of their damage since promotion at their Pride Park base. Paul Warne's troops have W1-D4-L6 on their travels and are unsurprisingly rated inside the bottom-eight for away Expected Points (xP). However, the Rams have endured an arduous schedule yet posted W4-D4-L1 when coming up against fellow bottom-half opponents.

Goals forecast for Friday

Derby are interesting outsiders with a +0.5 Asian Handicap start at 1.78 considering their ability to match the lesser Championship lights this term, although a more palatable alternative is to support Both Teams To Score at 1.94 considering the strong statistical elements on our side with both teams boasting a 57% hit-rate in this market thus far.

Drill deeper, and BTTS holds even more appeal. The Hatters have seen both sides score in eight of their 11 Kenilworth Road outings - a divisional-high for sides at home, whilst the Rams have returned seven BTTS winners from their 11 away days. Collectively, the pair have scored in 18 of those respective 22 home/away days, keeping just four clean sheets.

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