Luton Town vs Sheffield United – Preview | OneFootball

Second place Sheffield United head down south to take on Luton Town on Saturday afternoon, with the Hatters sitting at the bottom of the Championship.

The Blades have won their last three games coming into this weekend, with their midweek victory, 3-1 over Middlesbrough, being their best performance and result arguably since late November. United’s January transfer window was strong, and as a result they now have options off the bench, so it comes as no surprise to learn that Chris Wilder has won the Blades their last two games, with go-ahead goals coming from substitutes in the last quarter of the matches.

In contrast, Luton Town are in horrendous form; they have not claimed three points in a game since before Christmas. In fact, they’ve only added two points to their tally from the last nine matches. Despite this, they are still only two points from safety, with a game in hand over Derby County in 21st.

Transfer Business

Matt Bloomfield made a bunch of signings in the winter window to try and reinvigorate his team.

Experienced Championship campaigners such as Isaiah Jones, Kal Naismith and Josh Bowler have all joined the Hatters. They also added versatile attacking midfielder Thelo Aasgaard from Wigan Athletic, where the Norwegian bagged 16 League One goals in the last one and a half seasons with the Latics.

Isaiah Jones is a player that has threatened to breakout as a top-end Championship/low-end Premier League player over the last three or four years, but he’s just been far too inconsistent, hence why Middlesbrough decided to let him go permanently in January. While he has pace and dribbling ability, the wingback is suspect defensively, and he isn’t totally reliable with his end product.

Kal Naismith joined his former team in January in order to try and rediscover his own form as well as Luton’s. The Scotsman has proven to be dependable at this level, both defensively and on the ball, but at 32 and after several major hamstring and calf injuries over the last couple of years, he has probably seen better days.

Josh Bowler is a player that always seems to play like a man who has a point to prove. His work-rate is immense, he has bags of energy and pace, so his opposition’s full-backs are always in for a game when he’s on the pitch. I was critical of Luton Town’s recruitment in the summer because I felt like they got away from their identity, but this one does feel like a Luton Town signing to me. Dynamic and works hard for the team.

Team News

Chris Wilder has stated that Tom Cannon and Gustavo Hamer will be given every chance to play a part on Saturday afternoon after suffering minor injuries against Middlesbrough last time out.

Kieffer Moore and Femi Seriki are still on track to return over these next couple of weeks, while there is no timescale for Jamie Shackleton’s return to the matchday squad.

Luton will be without centre-back Teden Mengi, club captain Tom Lockyer and defender Reece Burke who is nursing a hip problem. Tahith Chong and Shandon Baptiste are also contending with soft tissue injuries.

Luton Town’s Impact Player For This Game

LUTON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 25: Carlton Morris of Luton Town reacts at full-time following the team’s defeat in the Sky Bet Championship match between Luton Town FC and Millwall FC at Kenilworth Road on January 25, 2025 in Luton, England. (Photo by Alex Pantling/Getty Images)

In order for Luton Town to escape the drop this season, they will need Carlton Morris to start firing in goals. So far, Morris has scored seven goals this term and served up two assists.

In Morris, you know what you’re going to get from him: a tough physical battle from start to finish. He is a handful for defenders because of his strength, but he has underrated technical ability as well. You can see this at times when he asks for the ball to feet, traps it whilst pinning his man, and then he’ll roll them all while maintaining control of the ball. And from there, he can spray a pass out wide, or he can get a shot off if he has room in front of him.

It’s no surprise, to me, to see the striker ranking in the 92nd percentile for aerial duel success rate. He also is the best in the league (out of all strikers) at drawing fouls. Another thing that may surprise you is that Morris is in the top 5% of Championship forwards in terms of dribble success rate, per FBref.

To summarise simply, the Sheffield United defenders will be in for a real battle this Saturday afternoon because Morris impacts the game in various phases of play, and he’s relentless.

Sheffield United’s Impact Player For This Game

Sheffield United could really exploit Luton Town’s right-hand side in this game, so I expect the likes of Harrison Burrows and (probably) Ben Brereton Diaz to have big games.

Luton’s right-back, Reuell Walters has looked poor whenever I’ve seen him play. While he has a lot of high volume in his defensive actions, this is not necessarily a good thing. He is eager to engage, which can of course be exploited by a change of pace or misdirection.

Additionally, he ranks in the lowest percentile in the division for errors, highlighting that he is very error-prone. Plus, he ranks in the 19th percentile for miscontrols and 3rd percentile for times dispossessed, per FBref. All of this points to him being shocking on the ball and lacking composure, which backs up the eye test. The Blades could set a trap and force him into an error on Saturday.

My Prediction

Luton Town are one of the worst teams in the league at creating good scoring opportunities from open play. It also doesn’t help that they are the fourth-worst Championship side in terms of finishing.

This, combined with the fact that they are the worst underperforming defensive team in the league (goals conceded vs expected goals conceded), is the reason they are at the foot of the table. When you’re slightly underperforming your goals conceded vs xG number (say 1-2.50), that isn’t too bad, because that could suggest some unfortunate luck. But in Luton’s case, that number is +10.79 (next closest is +7.91, per Opta), this is clearly down to shocking goalkeeping.

Considering Sheffield United coming off of a 3-1 victory over Middlesbrough, the confidence should be sky high, and I think Sheffield United can win this one by a couple of goals whilst keeping a clean sheet.