Betting.Betfair.com
·28 de janeiro de 2025
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·28 de janeiro de 2025
Jones Knows thinks PSG are a great bet at 18/1
Having a bet in this year's outright Champions League market has scared me a little bit due to the step into the unknown of the new format.
However, with things starting to take shape and the tournament entering more familiar surroundings in terms of the knockout stage, my confidence has increased and there's one team that are a knockout bet at the prices.
And that's PSG at 18/1 with each-way stakes in mind on the Betfair Sportsbook with half the odds for a top two finish.
Many will scoff at this suggestion.
The facts are that PSG could be completely knocked out of the competition come Wednesday evening and our money sent down the drain if they lose in Stuttgart.
However, punters shouldn't be running away from PSG based on such jeopardy, which is still very slim.
Because of Dinamo Zagreb' huge negative goal difference PSG just need to avoid defeat to Stuttgart to reach the play-off stage, this is because a draw will mean they will finish above the Bundesliga outfit. A draw will take both sides through, barring the most extraordinary set of scorelines elsewhere.
It's therefore no surprise to see that outcome as the favourite of all three selections in the match odds market with just 2.60 on offer for the stalemate.
I'm confident that PSG, despite taking just 10 points from the league phase so far, are putting in performances that make them big players for a genuine charge at this title.
When you assess their performance metrics it's hard to see why they are struggling to qualify - the data suggest they should be further up the league.
To take just one point from their two fixtures with Atletico Madrid and PSV based on the underlying numbers was freakish.
PSG accumulated 4.32 worth of expected goals across those fixtures, winning the corner count 20-4 and shot count 48-12 whilst conceding just 0.74 of expected goals against. It should have been six points, the bare minimum should've been four but to take just one was extremely unfortunate.
And they've been very unlucky with what the fixture computer has thrown their way too, having had to play Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Man City and Atletico Madrid.
To have managed to put together an expected goals against record per 90 of just 0.89 - the third best defensive return of any team - is impressive. You can mark them up massively - and they showed how high their ceiling can be against City where I thought they were seriously impressive.
To play with such cohesion, drive and quality in such a pressure cooker environment with elimination staring them in the face when 2-0 down against a team managed by Pep Guardiola showed a different side to the PSG we've become accustomed to seeing.
This team are together. This team are fearless.
And they have quality and experience in key areas of the pitch, especially in defence where Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marquinhos provide a great balance of knowhow to the exciting potential of Bradley Barcola and Joao Neves.
The market is still sleeping on this exciting and very capable side. They are in the mix. Back them before the masses realise.