"It's quite strange" - Pundit shares Burnley FC concern over 2024-25 trend | OneFootball

The Clarets continue to excel in front of goal at the start of the 24/25 campaign

EFL pundit George Elek has unearthed a quirk in Burnley’s attacking numbers this season, with the Not The Top 20 co-host casting doubt on the sustainability of their potency going forward.

No side in the Championship has registered more goals this season than the Clarets, with Sunderland the only side to match their 13 strikes from the first six matches of the campaign.

But while the Black Cats had an xG rating of 9.0 from the chances they created, Scott Parker’s side have mustered a total of just 4.9 so far this season, with their eye for the spectacular benefiting them time and time again.

That tendency was in full effect once again in their 2-1 victory over Portsmouth at the weekend, which has given Elek reason to cast doubt over whether that sort of reliability in front of goal can regularly be repeated.

George Elek outlines over-performance in Burnley FC strike-force

While no side has scored more goals than Burnley this season, only three sides have a worse xG rating than the Turf Moor outfit, who continue to find the net from all angles amid their search for an immediate return to the top tier.

Having fallen behind to Callum Lang’s opener on Saturday, the Lancashire side had to rely on strikes from Jeremy Sarmiento and Josh Brownhill from outside the penalty area to claim all three points against Pompey, with the winning goal coming in injury time.

While the quality of both strikes isn’t up for debate, Elek’s delve into the underlying numbers has made him debate whether the side can repeat that sort of feat week after week.

Speaking on the Not The Top 20 podcast, he said: “The Sarmiento goal is another occasion of a quality player getting on the ball, cutting inside and finding the corner.

“The Brownhill goal is another example of someone from outside the box finding the corner, and that is their fifth goal from outside the box already this season.

“When you consider they have scored the most goals this season with 13, that is from an xG of five.

“So their defensive numbers are really good, but if we think back to the game against Cardiff, they scored five from under 1.0 xG and not that many shots.”

George Elek makes Manuel Benson comparison as Burnley continue to defy the statistics

The feeling of relying on a piece of magic to win games in the Championship will be a familiar one for Burnley fans, with Manuel Benson the man to have done so the last time they were battling for promotion in the second tier.

The forward was an unstoppable force during the 22/23 campaign, with his late cameo appearances usually deciding a game in the Clarets’ favour, with eleven goals to his name throughout the season.

Those strikes came from an xG cumulation of just 4.0, which underlines just how clinical the forward proved to be, with his eye for the spectacular regularly getting his side out of jail late on.

With those memories still fresh in the mind for many at Turf Moor, Elek believes there will be few that aren’t worried about the facts and figures as it stands, with results still coming by hook or by crook.

He continued: “It is quite funny when you think back to Burnley winning the league, they relied quite a lot on Manuel Benson getting hold of the ball and slamming one in the top corner from 20 yards.

“It is quite strange that we have the team scoring the most goals in the league right now - I think they rank 21st for big chances created in the league - and they are not creating many chances for Lyle Foster to thrive off.

“That is a strange little wrinkle about their play.”