Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 0 Everton 1 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the four Premier League matches from Sunday that decided the final three Champions League places, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Fulham 2.22 v Man City 2.46 (0-2)

Manchester United 2.96 v Aston Villa 0.34 (2-0)

Newcastle 1.16 v Everton 1.07 (0-1)

Forest 1.58 v Chelsea 1.31 (0-1)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Those Expected Goals stats giving us a better idea of how these matches really went, going beyond just the final scoreline.

The stand out one when it comes to Expected Goals stats in these Champions League decisive matches, is of course the one at Old Trafford.

All Premier League teams see refereeing decisions and VAR judgements go against them at times during a season. Villa had one on Sunday BUT reality of that match was that Man U battered them both when Villa had 11 men and 10 men. Villa were lucky not to be at least a couple down before Martinez did what he did just before half-time, then Man U eventually got the two or more goals that their second half superiority also merited. Unai Emery would be better off pointing the finger of blame at himself and his players, especially Martinez, rather than crying on about a single match decision for the referee.

As for the other three games affecting the Champions League places, pretty much too close to call in all of them when it comes to the Expected Goals stats.

Man City just edged the Expected Goals stats (2.46 v 2.22) but a case of clinical finishing for them, whilst Fulham had the chances as well but couldn’t convert.

Forest actually bettering Chelsea when it came to Expected Goals (1.58 v 1.31) but the home side letting themselves down when it came to finishing, very costly.

Lastly, we come to St James’ Park, Newcastle actually marginally edging the Expected Goals stats (1.16 v 1.07) against Everton.

United were poor to average BUT at the same time, still carried as much goal threat as Everton, in a game that deserved to end goalless really, or 1-1 at best. Eddie Howe’s team huffed and puffed but still created enough half decent situations to have got at least a draw. Everton though took their big chance and it wasn’t to be.

All of the other underlying stats back up the fact that a poor to average Newcastle United still deserved at least a point based on their overall performance, with twice as much possession (66% v 34%), four times as many corners (12 v 3), more than twice as many touches in the opposition box (28 v 13) and more shots (17 v 14).

Newcastle 0 Everton 1 – Sunday 25 May 4pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Everton:

Alcaraz 65

Possession was Newcastle 66% Everton 34%

Total shots were Newcastle 17 Everton 14

Shots on target were Newcastle 6 Everton 6

Corners were Newcastle 12 Everton 3

Touches in the box Newcastle 28 Everton 13

Newcastle team v Everton:

Pope, Botman (Trippier 63), Schar, Burn, Livramento, Gordon (Willock 46), Tonali, Bruno, Barnes (Osula 88), Isak, Murphy (Wilson 70)

Unused Subs:

Dubravka, Lascelles, Longstaff, Krafth, Miley

(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Interesting on Newcastle United after Champions League qualification – Read HERE)