Every nation's chances of winning AFCON 2023 ranked | OneFootball

Highlights

The Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) is upon us. 24 nations from the continent of Africa are set to battle it out until two teams are left. Those lucky enough to call themselves finalists will lock horns at the Alassane Ouattara Stadium in the capital of the Ivory Coast on 11 February 2024 in what is destined to be a game full of unscripted drama, excitement and plenty of goals.

As always, hosts Ivory Coast will kick things off against Guinea-Bissau before a barrage of fixtures comes to your screens thick and fast, all while domestic football continues in the background. Senegal will be looking to retain their status as champions after beating Mohamed Salah’s Egypt on penalties last time out, while the Liverpool man will be out for vengeance, looking to get his hands on the trophy for the first – and potentially not the last – time during his career.

But who are the favourites? The hype around AFCON is greater than ever before with a plethora of stars, with some plying their trade in Europe’s top five, ready to represent their country and do them proud. Thanks to the folks over at Opta and their prized possession, the supercomputer, . Let’s dive in to the top 10, shall we?

1 Senegal

Chance of winning: 12.8%

The current holders of the trophy are poised to retain their status as AFCON champions, according to Opta’s supercomputer. No African nation has defended the AFCON trophy since Egypt’s third on the bounce way back in 2010, but Senegal – led by Aliou Cisse – could set a precedent on the continent.

Led by former Liverpool ace Sadio Mané, the Lions of Teranga have a 12.8% chance of winning the competition this time around and defending their crown. Alongside Mane, they have a roster boasting a deadly combination of youth and experience, with many players having competed at a high level in Europe both currently and in yesteryear, including Kalidou Koulibaly, Edouard Mendy and Idrissa Gana Gueye.

Chance of winning: 12.1%

Easily the front-runners, potentially alongside Nigeria, to top Group A, Ivory Coast – one of Africa’s household name heavyweights - will look to pounce on their home advantage this time around, especially given, as host country, they are granted automatic advancement to the championship round.

The Elephants could become the first home victors if they are to reign triumphant in 2024 since Egypt did so back in 2006. They last won the tournament in 2015 and have not progressed past the quarterfinals since, a notion that has planted doubt that they are able to secure a victory on home soil.

3 Morocco

Chance of winning: 11.1%

Having recently emerged as a dominant force in international football – largely thanks to reaching the World Cup semi-finals under boss Walid Regragui – big things are expected of Morocco. That said, Opta’s calculations have them down as third favourites to win the lot, much to the surprise of many.

The star-studded nature of their squad, which consists of Manchester United’s Sofyan Amrabat and Paris Saint-Germain full-back Achraf Hakimi, has more than enough to be crowned AFCON champions for the first time since 1976. Adopting a different approach against somewhat inferior opposition may be their kryptonite, however, as they look to assert their dominance on the African stage this year.

4 Algeria

Chance of winning: 9.7%

Two-time AFCON winners Algeria are always there or thereabouts at the top of the pile in the competitions, largely thanks to having the services of Riyad Mahrez at their disposal. The former Manchester City star will be looking to spearhead his nation to glory in 2024, though they have been given a mere 9.7% chance of doing so by Opta’s supercomputer.

After falling at the first hurdle in 2021’s edition of AFCON, chief Djamel Belmadi will demand more from the Desert Foxes, especially as they have been drawn against Angola, Burkina Faso and Mauritania. While progression from the group stage seems inevitable, progressing any further may prove too much for the North African nation.

Chance of winning: 8.5%

Will the legendary Salah finally get his hands on an AFCON trophy? Time will tell, though Opta have given them an 8.5% chance of doing so in 2024. Egypt have enjoyed a run of six games unbeaten in recent times, but their soft underbelly was on show during their 3-1 loss to Tunisia in mid-September.

With a rich history in the game and more AFCONs to their name than any other nation (7), Egypt came whiskers away from adding another trophy to their collection before losing the final against Senegal two years ago. Ranked as the fifth favourites by Opta’s supercomputer, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Salah and Co. run deep into the final embers of this year’s competition – and possibly even the final.

6 Nigeria

Chance of winning: 8%

Assigned an 8% chance of winning, Nigeria will look to re-assert themselves as one of Africa’s behemothic nations after failing to qualify in 2015 and 2017, finishing third in 2019 and then crashing out at the last-16 stage in 2021’s instalment.

With enough firepower in the attacking department to strike fear into any nation, manager Jose Peseiro will be looking for some inspirational performances to better their chances of going all the way. Napoli marksman Victor Osimhen will likely lead the line with red-hot Victor Boniface out via an injury, but the added onus on the former may hinder their ability to seize their opportunity at reaching the promised land: the final.

7 Cameroon

Chance of winning: 7.4%

While their AFCON-laced trophy cabinet is only inferior to Egypt’s, Cameroon have been afforded a 7.4% of lifting the trophy this time around. They have, however, been boosted by the inclusion of Manchester United shot stopper Andre Onana being present between the posts – and with former Rigobert Song in the dugout, they will be hoping to better their standings since losing their 2021 semi-final on penalties.

Their attack will be headed by 2021’s top goalscorer and Golden Boot winner Vincent Aboubakar, while Napoli’s Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa will be acting as the midfield lynchpin. The spine of their team is solid, though whether it’s enough to provide an upset remains to be seen.

8 Tunisia

Chance of winning: 6.3%

Tunisia sent plenty of shock waves through the continent last time out by sending Nigeria packing in the last-16, though their chances of adding to their solitary AFCON victory – one which they sealed on home soil back in 2004.

With a 6.3% chance of going all the way, Tunisia have the best chance of all Group E occupants of qualifying and, therefore, making a statement in the final. With a mix of seasoned professionals and the exuberance of youth, head boss Jalel Kadri will be dependent on the international experience of the former to see his players perform amicably in 2024.

9 Ghana

Chance of winning: 5.3%

In action on the opening weekend is Ghana as they lock horns with African minnows Cape Verde. And while they are favourites to book a spot in the knockout rounds, the Black Stars have been given a measly 5.3% chance of bringing glory home to West Africa for the fourth time in their storied history.

Their last triumph came way back in 1982, though they have been on the verge of winning on a number of occasions as they became runners-up in 1992, 2010 and 2015, all while being involved in the third-place fixture in four separate years: 1996, 2008, 2012, 2013 and 2017. It seems as if Ghana are always on the verge of success – but can 2024 be the year they finally achieve widespread greatness again?

10 Mali

Chance of winning: 3.7%

Making the top 10 by the skin of their teeth is Mali. They will have to face the aforementioned Tunisia, as well as South Africa and Namibia in their hotly contested Group E before even thinking of winning their first AFCON. Even then, Les Aigles have been assigned a narrow chance of finally earning the continent-wide bragging rights (3.7%).

Mali have been runners-up in the competition on one occasion (1972) but have reached the semi-finals five times since AFCON’s inception in 1957, having hosted once in 2002. Their most notable star is Yves Bissouma of Tottenham Hotspur and, given the role he has been given domestically, it is likely that we’ll see the central midfielder breaking up, dictating play and creating chances at every given opportunity this year.

The other 14

And breathe. That’s the top 10 done and dusted, but it’s important to remember that 24 teams in total will be strutting their stuff between this Sunday and mid-February to see who can hold the bragging rights for the next couple of years. Congo DR just missed out on the top 10 slots with a 2.4% chance, while 11th-placed South Africa – who have been triumphant once back in 1996 – have been given a lesser chance at securing gold in February (2.1%). Burkina Faso quickly follow with 1.9% and Guinea and Zambia are closely behind with a 1.5% and 1.4% chance, respectively.

Standing alone with a 0.9% chance of going all the way are Cape Verde. Guinea-Bissau and Equatorial Guinea both have a 0.8% chance of winning this year’s instalment, according to Opta’s calculations, while those with a slightly less chance (0.6%) consist of Gambia, Tanzania, Mauritania and Mozambique. The least likely of the pack to reach the final and reign victorious is Angola and Namibia (0.5%).