Euro 2024 Day Four Stat Pack: Romelu Lukaku to score twice at 9/2 | OneFootball

Romania v Ukraine (14:00) - Stan is the man

It's likely that Romania will have their limitations exposed in this tournament but a way to potentially latch onto their chances when it comes to betting opportunities is how everything they do comes through their influential and creative skipper Nicolae Stanciu.

For his nation in qualification, he took corners, he took free-kicks, he took penalties, he ranked highest for successful dribbles, he made the most passes in the final third, had the most touches in the opposition penalty area, created the most chances, had the most shots and won the most fouls.

He'll be to the fore when Romania are in possession so I'm keeping a close eye on his shots and to be fouled prices in the group stages and acting when the prices are right. In qualifying he drew 1.95 fouls per 90 minutes and fired 3.15 shots per 90 minutes. He is 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook to hit three or more shots and 8/151.53 to be fouled at least twice. Combining those angles brings out a 4.55 shot to ponder through the Bet Builder.

I've decided that a shrewd investment strategy at Euro 2024 is to back Romelu Lukaku to score goals.

I'm convinced strikers are at their most motivated when either a contract is running out or they are out to impress potential suitors ahead of their next big contract. Lukaku is at that stage of his career with Chelsea looking to sell after he returned from his most recent loan stint at Roma.

A fruitful Euros will have clubs queuing up to snap up services.

He arrives in Germany as the top goalscorer from qualifying, scoring 14 goals as Belgium ripped through their relatively weak section and have landed another favourable group that could see them take maximum points from.

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This is Lukaku's speciality, scoring against bad teams.

Just look at his record in the Premier League.

His record against non-big-six teams is 104 goals in 192 games (0.65 goals per 90) and against big-six teams it drops to a rate of 0.24 per game having found the net 17 times in 86 matches. I'm backing him to put the Slovaks to the sword by taking the 9/25.50 with the Betfair Sportsbook on him to score twice and the 22/123.00 for the hat-trick.

Recommended Bet

1pt on Lukaku to score twice v Slovakia

SBK9/2

Recommended Bet

0.5pts on Lukaku to score a hat-trick v Slovakia

SBK22/1

Austria v France (20:00) - Rangnick's boys set to excite

I'm not expecting too many fireworks in the opening round of games owing to the tournament format and potentially some of the top teams being a little undercooked. This game is the exception. It's one not to be missed - and I'm all over backing the game to produce goals.

Austria look set to play high-risk, ruffle-feathers football. They finished only one point behind Belgium en-route to Euro 2024, winning six of their eight qualifiers and posting an excellent W11-D2-L1 return under Ralf Rangnick. Das Team boasted the lowest PPDA (passes per defensive action) figure in qualification at 8.31, highlighting their high-pressing nature and how comfortable they are at implementing Rangnick's football philosophy.

A crystal-clear identity and playing style that is being embraced makes me confident to invest in their games being full of incident and goals, especially is this one facing the top goalscorers in qualifying. Austria's four key qualification games against Belgium and Sweden produced 13 goals and I'd expect this encounter where Kylian Mbappe may just run riot in the space afforded, to mirror that 3.25 goal average. I'm liking the over 3.0 goal line on the Betfair Exchange at around 2.56/4 meaning we'll get stakes refunded if there are three goals and a payout if there are four or more.

Recommended Bet

1pt on over 3.0 goals on the Goal line

EXC2.5

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