Champions League 2024/25: Back 25/1 Inter Milan for glory among Opta's six best bets | OneFootball

Crank up the anthem, put the television on and get settled in because the greatest show on turf is back.

The UEFA Champions League is the pinnacle of club football and this season's edition has the potential to be the most intriguing yet. Out goes the old format of eight four-team groups and in comes a 36-team league, in which each side plays eight matches.

Following the conclusion of the league, the top eight progress directly to the round of 16, while teams between ninth and 24th will have a play-off to decide who else makes it through. The remaining 12 teams will be eliminated.

With more matches and more teams comes the potential for more angles to extract the best value, so let's get stuck into the outright markets.

Outright Winner

Back: Inter Milan - 25/1

While they are not rated as the team with the best chance of winning the Champions League, there aren't many better-value picks than the Italian champions.

Opta's supercomputer gives Inter an 11% chance of lifting the trophy, which far outstrips the 3.8% probability implied by their sportsbook price of 25/1. Only Manchester City and Real Madrid, meanwhile, are suggested as likelier candidates to go all the way.

While this is an outcome that would undoubtedly be greeted with surprise, it wouldn't be the biggest shock.

Since Simone Inzaghi took over as manager in 2021, Inter have excelled.

In 2022-23, he guided them to their first Champions League final since winning the tournament in 2010. The following season, Inter secured their first Scudetto in four years, finishing 19 points above second place.

With fixtures against Crvena Zvezda and Young Boys after a tough opener against Manchester City, they will be targeting early points on the board.

Notably, goalkeeper Yann Sommer also registered a save percentage of 86.2% in last season's competition - more than any other stopper who faced 10 shots or more - while he ranked sixth for goals prevented (2.93).

Avoid: Bayern Munich - 12/1

Bayern Munich are giants of the Champions League and haven't failed to get beyond the first stage since 2002-03.

Having been given the second-easiest league-stage fixture list, as per the average Opta rating of their opponents, they should cruise through this time as well.

But that doesn't mean they are a good value outright bet.

The Opta supercomputer rates Bayern as the eighth-likeliest team to win the competition, giving them a 4% chance to do so, despite them being equal-fourth favourites on the sportsbook.

With an outright price of 12/1 giving Vincent Kompany's team an implied probability of 7.7% of winning the tournament, it doesn't make sense to get behind them.

League Stage Winner

Back: Manchester City - 3/1

Manchester City are used to finishing first in league-format football.

Last term, they won an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title, which was also their eighth in 12 seasons.

They have been similarly dominant in Champions League group stages over the years, having finished first in each of their last seven. In that timeframe, they have won 32 out of 42 matches including six out of six during 2023-24.

They stand out as the obvious choice to top the all-new 36-team league and should justify their position as favourites to do so.

Avoid: Liverpool - 10/1

Liverpool's Champions League performance has been inconsistent over the years, with them having failed to top five of their last 10 groups in the competition.

The Reds come into the 2024-25 tournament after a year away and have duly been handed the second-hardest set of matches. They will face teams with an average rating of 91.8 - second only to Paris Saint-Germain's fixture list.

There are better options in this market.

Top 8 Finish in League Stage

Back: Bayer Leverkusen - 13/10

At an odds-against price, Bundesliga champions Leverkusen should be of interest in the top-eight market.

Xabi Alonso's side went the entire 2023-24 domestic season without being beaten and the Opta supercomputer gives them a 5% chance of winning this season's Champions League, meaning they rank sixth in the predictions.

They are also given a 76% chance of reaching the round of 16 by the same model. While that statistic does also take into account the potential of them going through the play-off round, there are only five other sides given a higher chance of progression.

Avoid: Paris Saint-Germain - 7/5

There are seven teams with a shorter price than Paris Saint-Germain to finish in the top eight, while their odds are level with Inter Milan and Atletico Madrid.

Luis Enrique's side have the ninth-best chance of lifting the trophy according to the Opta supercomputer, four places higher than Atletico, but a rotten fixture list makes it hard to get behind them for automatic progression.

PSG have been given the trickiest draw of all 36 teams, with an average opponent rating of 92.4 as per Opta. It's for that reason, they are best avoided in this market.

To Finish 9th-24th in League Stage

Back: Celtic - 13/8

Speaking of draw difficulty, Celtic were on the receiving end of the kindest fixture list and will face teams with an average rating of 87.4.

Importantly, their home games look like ones where they can accrue some points.

In chronological order, Brendan Rodgers' side will face Slovan Bratislava (more on them later), RB Leipzig, Club Brugge and Young Boys at Celtic Park.

The Scottish champions have won 90 of their last 119 points in the group stages of major European competitions at home, so their performance in the above fixtures will be vital if they are to secure a play-off spot.

Avoid: Aston Villa - 1/4

Aston Villa's price to finish between ninth and 24th gives an implied probability of 80%, which is impossible to get behind.

The Opta supercomputer rates them as the 24th-most likely team to win the competition, while they are only given a 32% chance of making the round of 16. While that prediction isn't wholly representative of their chances of qualifying for the play-off, the disparity between the two is stark.

Villa are debutants to the Champions League this season, with the competition having been known as the European Cup when they last appeared in 1982-83. Of the 149 teams to have qualified for the Champions League, 105 have been eliminated in the group stage (or first group stage) in their debut season in the competition.

To Finish Bottom in League Stage

Back: Slovan Bratislava - 10/3

Sometimes, backing the favourite is the correct move.

Slovan Bratislava are only the fourth Slovakian team to ever qualify for the competition proper and this is their first time reaching this stage in 12 attempts.

Making it this far, having entered in the first qualifying round, is an impressive achievement, but they will surely find things difficult in the coming months.

The supercomputer gives them just a 1% chance of making the round of 16 - lower than any other team - while they have the seventh-toughest draw and face Manchester City in their opening home game. Ouch.

Avoid: Young Boys - 8/1

While Slovan have the seventh-toughest draw, Young Boys have the seventh-easiest with an average opponent rating of 89.

The supercomputer suggests that the Swiss champions are the least likely of all teams in the league stage to win the tournament, but that doesn't mean that they should be expected to finish bottom.

A kinder fixture list than all other similarly rated teams combined with plenty of continental experience over recent seasons should mean they avoid the wooden spoon.

Golden Boot Winner

Back: Lautaro Martinez - 40/1

In eight of the last 11 seasons, the Champions League top scorer has also been a finalist - or at least one of the players in seasons when the title has been shared.

With that in mind, the Inter name that jumps off the page is Lautaro Martinez.

The Argentine only scored twice in eight Champions League matches in 2023-24, but generated an xG of 5.13 - the biggest goals to xG differential in the competition - suggesting that he had the opportunities to do better.

Given that he top-scored in Serie A with 24 goals in the same season, we know that he is well capable of putting a scoring run together within a successful team. His Golden Boot-winning five goals at this year's Copa America strengthens that point.

Avoid: Erling Haaland - 13/5

Erling Haaland's price suggests an implied probability of 27.8% that he will be the Champions League's top scorer this season.

While it would be silly to question the ability of a player of his standing, it's just too skinny to get behind him with so many high-profile rivals also vying to come out on top, including Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane, who shared last season's scoring award.

Now read more Champions League previews and tips here.