Bundesliga Tips: Why to back over 4.5 goals at the BayArena | OneFootball

German Bundesliga

Granit Xhaka has been critical of Bayer Leverkusen's defending

Bayer Leverkusen aren't as defensively strong as they were when they won the Bundesliga unbeaten last term. Sky Sports commentator Kevin Hatchard believes they'll be strongly tested again on Saturday afternoon...

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Champions to play out another thriller

Bayer Leverkusen v Eintracht FrankfurtSaturday 19 October, 14:30

It was perhaps unrealistic to expect Bayer Leverkusen to maintain their incredibly high standards from last season, and they are well placed in both the Bundesliga and the Champions League, but there's certainly been a decline in the solidity of Xabi Alonso's team. Their collapse against struggling Holstein Kiel - Die Werkself were 2-0 up inside eight minutes but still drew 2-2 - was indicative of the kind of displays they have been putting on. Midfield general Granit Xhaka has been critical of his teammates' defensive displays, insisting it's about basics like desire and positioning.

Given those issues, the visit of high-flying Eintracht Frankfurt suggests we are in for a goalfest here. Frankfurt drew 3-3 with Bayern before the international break, as strike duo Omar Marmoush and Hugo Ekitike continued their stellar start to the season. Ekitike has produced two league goals and two assists, while Egyptian international Marmoush has been unplayable, with eight goals and four assists in his last five Bundesliga appearances. Frankfurt are third in the standings, and deservedly so.

Leverkusen only conceded 24 goals across the entire league season last term, and they have already leaked half that tally. Five of their six Bundesliga matches have featured at least four goals, and four of those have seen an Over 4.5 Goals bet land. Over 3.5 Goals is trading at 2.04 on the Exchange, and given how explosive the two teams have been so far, I think that's actually an attractive price. That said, I'll be a touch more greedy and back Over 4.5 Goals at 3.45, as I think we are in for a treat.

Dortmund to enjoy home comforts

Borussia Dortmund v St PauliFriday 18 October, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

The opening months of Nuri Sahin's reign at Borussia Dortmund have been characterised by inconsistency. BVB have been excellent at home (they have won all three Bundesliga matches and dismantled Celtic 7-1 in the Champions League), but they have claimed a solitary point from their three away games. They slipped to a deserved 2-1 defeat at Union Berlin before the international break, a game in which they only really got going after half time.

There are some positives, and one of those is the early form of new star striker Serhou Guirassy. The former Stuttgart hitman has already scored six goals in Dortmund colours, and has netted in four of his last five appearances. Having scored 28 league goals last term, Guirassy is establishing himself as a proven performer at the elite level.

St Pauli are finding life back in the Bundesliga to be consistently tough. They were shredded 3-0 at home by Mainz before the break, and they have claimed just four points from their opening six league matches. Goalscoring has been a big issue - the Hamburg club have only scored four times in the league, and three of those goals came in the same game.

Dortmund have been hit hard by illness (Maxi Beier and Julian Ryerson are struggling with flu) and injuries (Karim Adeyemi, Yan Couto, Julien Duranville and Gio Reyna are all out) but Dortmund should still have enough quality and pace to win this with room to spare. They have won their last seven competitive home matches, so I'll back a Dortmund win, Over 1.5 Goals and Guirassy to score. That gives us a price of 21/20 on the Sportsbook's Bet Builder.

Croatian sensation to strike again

Hoffenheim v BochumSaturday 19 October, 14:30

These are difficult times for Hoffenheim and their embattled coach Pellegrino Matarazzo. TSG find themselves in the automatic relegation zone, there have been constant boardroom wrangles, and questions are being asked about the efficacy of the club's work in the transfer market.

Amidst the chaos, the club's record scorer Andrej Kramaric continues to be the ray of light penetrating the gloom. Over the international break the Croatian international netted a Nations League winner against Scotland, and he has four league goals in his first five appearances of the campaign.

Bochum could well be obliging opponents. The Ruhr club have collected just one point from their six matches, and new coach Peter Zeidler is struggling to find the right answers. VFL have already leaked 14 goals, and so there is every reason to think that a Hoffenheim attack with 10 goals in the bag will cause some problems.

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