Best Bets for MLS Week 12 | OneFootball

Match- Minnesota United hosts Inter Miami

MLS Week 12 has some US Open Cup matches to contend with. Earlier this week, Minnesota United squeaked out a 1-0 win over Louisville City, a match in which they managed to rotate their entire starting lineup.  They should be fresh to host Lionel Messi and Inter Miami this weekend.

Minnesota currently have a 2-2-1 home record with 6 goals and only 5 conceded.  Their defense is playing exceptionally well; their 10 goals against is 2nd best in the Western Conference, and averages less than a goal a game.  However, they play Inter Miami this week, and who wants to bet against Inter Miami?

Pick- Inter Miami TT O1.5 +132

I like Inter Miami to win outright, but I think the odds to score twice at +132 are better than the +190 moneyline win, specifically because it factors in the possibility of Minnesota equaling or even surpassing Miami’s scoreline.

Miami has scored 2 goals or more in 6 of their 10 matches this season, and 2 of their 4 away matches.  Getting them at +100 or better to score twice is an immediate bet in my book.

By the Numbers-

Miami started the season with some malaise, scoring 20 times in their first 10 matches.  This is down .27 goals per game from their 2025 average.  However, I expect them to get back to their scoring ways very soon.

This match could be without Luis Suarez who traveled for personal reasons this week.  However, Suarez hasn’t impressed this season with only 2 goals in 666 minutes played. For comparison, one possible sub, Fafa Picault, has 3 goals in just 325 minutes this season.

Match- FC Cincinnati hosts Austin FC

The next match for MLS Week 12 on my card is FC Cincinnati against Austin FC.  Only one of these teams were busy with the Open Cup this week; Austin hosted El Paso while Cincinnati did not play midweek. This pushes a slight edge further towards Cincinnati, albeit only slightly.

For betting purposes, I consider this similar to a regular weekly matchup, one which already favors FC Cincinnati.

Pick- FC Cincinnati -120

FC Cincinnati are an easy pick this week; they are 4-1-0 at home with 8 goals scored and 3 conceded. They have a better squad with superstars like Evander and Kevin Denkey who already have 6 goals apiece.  With the return of Matt Miazga, Cincinnati also has a formidable defense to pair with their 4th best home advantage.

FC Cincinnati should win, and -120 is a price that is right about where it should be.  You can find pairs to push the odds more favorable, but I will start with a straight win for Cincy.

By the Numbers-

Austin FC have a 2-3 road record, with wins over St. Louis City and LAFC. However, they haven’t scored in over 180 minutes of MLS play and are now on a two game road losing streak.  They have only scored 3 times in 5 road matches, which pushes my projected goal total for Austin down to .81 goals, which is my lowest projection of the week.

Match- Houston Dynamo host Seattle Sounders

In another interesting MLS Week 12 match, we see the Seattle Sounders headed into Houston to face the Dynamo.  Seattle did not play midweek, while Houston beat Phoenix Rising by scoring 3 goals in overtime.

While we can assume Seattle have fresher legs, they are also the team in better form.  Seattle are 3-1-0 and unbeaten in their last 4, while Houston is 1-2-1 in their last 4, with a 2-4-5 record on the season.

Pick- Seattle Sounders Draw No Bet -102

The Dynamo have 8 goals and 10 conceded at home this season, which is a big part of why Seattle can come into town and get a win: just like Miami, Dallas, and RSL did to start the season.

While I think Seattle are due to get hot (and have a much better team), their poor road performances have me taking some insurance on the Draw No Bet.  I will be staying away from Seattle on the moneyline.

By the Numbers-

This is the only match that my betting model has the away team winning outright, giving the Sounders a 44.9% chance at victory.  If we look at the implied probability of their current +160 scoreline, you are getting a nice advantage on sportsbooks for the likelihood of Seattle winning outright.

The Draw No Bet at -102 gives us a little insurance on the unpredictability betting away sides often provides.

Match- Nashville SC hosts Charlotte FC

We have a rivalry match in MLS Week 12 when Nashville SC hosts Charlotte. Both sides had midweek Open Cup matches with some starters, but considering both are relatively local I will be treating this as a normal weekend matchup.

Nashville SC and Charlotte FC have one thing in common; both teams play defensive soccer and have historically had good defenses.  Combined, they have allowed 26 goals in 22 matches, or just about a goal every 76 minutes.

Pick- BTTS No +126

By my MLS model, one team getting shut out is predicted roughly 45.6% of the time, which leaves a slight edge on the sportsbook offer of ‘BTTS No’ bet at +126.

By the Numbers-

If we look at the total goals scored and conceded by Nashville and Charlotte this season, we see about 2.9 goals per game.  However, each team has one outlier- Nashville’s 7-2 win over Chicago and Charlotte’s 4-2 loss to the Crew. Without those matches, the total goals drop to 2.45 on the season. In fact, these two teams have seen one team not score in 13 of their 22 total matches, or 59% of the time.

This is a bet which has a projected occurance of less than 50%, yet the odds at +126 bring it into play.  And while ‘BTTS No’ has been hit all season by Charlotte and Nashville, this time is a rivalry match where they will both seek to hyper focus on keeping their opponent from getting that first goal.

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