USMNT vs Mexico prediction, projected lineups, how to watch | OneFootball

While the 2025 Gold Cup hasn’t exactly unfolded as expected, the two most prominent teams in Concacaf have ended up back in the finals to face one another.

The champion will be crowned Sunday night in Houston when the USMNT faces Mexico. This will be the eighth time these two nations have met in the Gold Cup Final, with Mexico holding a 4-3 advantage in the seven previous matchups.

A month ago, reaching the Gold Cup Final was far from a certainty for the U.S. They began the summer with a pair of friendly losses to Türkiye and Switzerland. But they’ve done just enough to advance, surviving penalties in the quarterfinals against Costa Rica and holding on for a 2-1 win over Guatemala in the semifinals.

Mexico’s journey has been a little more predictable. While El Tri hasn’t always shown a sense of urgency during the tournament, the Mexicans have turned up the intensity when their tournament fate has been on the line and found a way to advance. Ultimately, Mexico has four wins and a draw in its five Gold Cup matches, outscoring opponents 8-2.

On top of being a final, Sunday’s game will be the latest chapter in Concacaf’s greatest rivalry. Mexico got the better of the U.S. the last time these teams met in a friendly played in Mexico last October.

However, the USMNT has been triumphant in the last two competitive matches against El Tri, beating Mexico in the 2024 Nations League finals and 2023 Nations League semifinals. The U.S. also won the 2021 Gold Cup Final against Mexico, which hasn’t beaten the U.S. in a competitive match since the 2019 Gold Cup Final.

How to Watch USMNT vs Mexico

Time: Wednesday, July 6, 7:00 pm ET

Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

Tickets: Click here

TV/streaming: Fox in English | Universo, TUDN in Spanish

USMNT vs Mexico Projected Lineup

If Mauricio Pochettino didn’t make any lineup changes between the quarterfinals and the semifinals, he’s likely not going to make any for the final. Meanwhile, Javier Aguirre hasn’t fully settled on his best lineup yet. However, there should be no surprises when it comes to Mexico’s attacking players or the spine of the team, giving El Tri a somewhat predictable lineup for the final.

USMNT projected ineup (4-2-3-1, right to left)

Matt Freese (GK) - Alex Freeman, Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Max Arfsten - Tyler Adams, Luca de la Torre - Sebastian Berhalter, Malik Tillman, Diego Luna - Patrick Agyemang

Mexico projected lineup (4-3-3, right to left)

Luis Malagon (GK) - Julian Araujo, Cesar Montes, Johan Vasquez, Mateo Chavez - Marcel Ruiz, Edson Alvarez, Gilberto Mora - Roberto Alvarado, Raul Jimenez, Alexis Vega

USMNT vs Mexico prediction

This will be a different type of game for the USMNT. Most of their opponents during the Gold Cup have played a low block, giving the U.S. possession and forcing them to break down an organized defense. However, Mexico is likely to come out and play, hoping to have most of the possession and force the U.S. to defend more than they have since their losses to Türkiye and Switzerland.

Needless to say, that doesn’t bode well for the USMNT. To be fair, those losses came before the U.S. settled into its defensive backbone of Chris Richards, Tim Ream, and Tyler Adams. That trio will be critical to containing the Mexico attack, especially Ream’s former Fulham teammate Raul Jimenez, who scored the only goal in Mexico’s 1-0 semifinal win over Honduras. El Tri will also look to challenge the USMNT fullbacks, which could be a problem after Max Arfsten’s defensive woes against Costa Rica in the quarterfinals.

On the other hand, the play of Malik Tillman and Diego Luna throughout the Gold Cup should give the U.S. hope that they can create scoring chances against Mexico, even if they aren’t dominating possession. However, the U.S. still lacks a reliable striker, as Patrick Agyemang has just one goal (and one lucky deflection that counted as his goal) in five Gold Cup matches, and seven matches overall this summer. That missing element will be the difference, helping Mexico win the Gold Cup.