UCL preview: Bayer Leverkusen vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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·30 settembre 2024

UCL preview: Bayer Leverkusen vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan will play the second game of their 2024-25 Champions League campaign on Tuesday night, and it will be a trip to Germany to face Bayer Leverkusen.

There is certainly a better atmosphere surrounding Milan than there was following the UCL opener against Liverpool after the derby win against Inter and beating Lecce on Friday night, yet what awaits is a litmus test in Leverkusen that very few sides passed last season.

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During his pre-match press conference, Fonseca spoke about a desire to change the attitude towards Italian football by not being a side that sits back and counters, but also the importance of putting in a perfect defensive performance.

Game date: Tuesday, October 1 Kick-off time: 21:00 (CEST) Venue: BayArena Referee: Sandro Schärer (VAR: San)

Team news

The game against Leverkusen provides a great opportunity for Milan to prove that they have learned from the mistakes they were making earlier in the season against a side that blew away almost everyone they faced in 2023-24.

In terms of injury problems, Ismael Bennacer is out until 2025 after undergoing a calf operation, Marco Sportiello is absent due to a hand injury and Alessandro Florenzi will be missing after knee surgery.

Davide Calabria picked up an injury before the Inter game and was forced to miss the Lecce clash, while Noah Okafor was also absent for that game too, but the good news is that both are back in full training so they will make the trip.

There were some strong doubts regarding Alvaro Morata’s availability heading into Friday’s game, and yet he was not only called up but he started and scored the opening goal. He came off in the second half but claimed it was a precaution, then did the full session on Monday and therefore should be ok to play again.

According to the latest reports, the goalkeeper will be Mike Maignan, then Matteo Gabbia and Theo Hernandez are also sure of a spot in the rearguard. On the right Davide Calabria and Emerson Royal are in a battle, as Strahinja Pavlović and Fikayo Tomori are for the other centre-back position.

In the middle of the field the pairing of Tijjani Reijnders and Youssouf Fofana will be used again, then on the flanks it should be Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic on the left and right respectively, with Tammy Abraham and Ruben Loftus-Cheek completing the attack.

However, the chances of seeing Morata start alongside Abraham are growing given he is back to full fitness, and if that were the case than Loftus-Cheek would drop out again in favour of more of a 4-4-2 system.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Pavlovic, Gabbia, Theo Hernandez; Fofana, Reijnders, Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Abraham.

The opponents

Bayer Leverkusen were arguably the biggest storyline around the top European leagues last season as they nearly managed to go the entire campaign without losing and were one game away from scooping a treble.

They won the Bundesliga title for the first time in the club’s history to win their first major trophy since 1993 and they also became the first team in history to win the German top flight without losing a single match, finishing with 28 wins and 6 draws.

Alonso’s side set a new European record for consecutive competitive matches without a loss (49), breaking Benfica’s record of 48 games unbeaten set between 1963 and 1965, but the run would end after 51 matches, following a 3–0 defeat to Atalanta in the Europa League final.

Nonetheless, Leverkusen won the DFB-Pokal – beating Kaiserslautern from the second division in the final – and completed an undefeated domestic double. That meant they lost just once in 53 games in the entire season.

The biggest question mark before Bayer could start planning for the summer was regarding Alonso’s future, and despite links with Liverpool and Bayern Munich – clubs he is strongly attached to – he committed his future for at least another season.

In terms of summer business, Leverkusen brought in Martin Terrier and Jeanie Belocian from State Resnais for a combined €35m, plus Leix Garcia from Girona for €18m and Nordi Mukiele on loan from PSG.

The only big sale they made was Adam Hlozek to Hoffenheim for €18m, with Sardar Azmoun leaving for the UAE Pro League for €5m after a season with Roma on loan.

Die Werkself began the season with a DFL-Supercup final win over Stuttgart on penalties, another team who were a surprise package last season as they finished second.

Photo by Stuart Franklin/Getty Images

A dramatic 3-2 win away at Borussia Monchengladbach in round one was followed by a defeat at home to RB Leipzig by the same scoreline.

They scored four goals in three consecutive victories over Hoffenheim, Feyenoord and Wolfsburg, then on Saturday they drew 1-1 away at Bayern Munich after taking the lead.

Leverkusen made five changes for their draw against the Bavarians but they are expected to stick mainly with that same team, while they also have no injuries or suspensions to worry about.

Hradecky should have a three-man defence composed of Tapsoba, Tah and Hincapie ahead of him, with Frimpong and Grimaldo flanking a midfield pairing of Xhaka and Andrick. Wirtz and Terrier should operate behind the striker Boniface.

Predicted Bayer Leverkusen XI (3-4-2-1): Hradecky; Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Andrich, Xhaka, Grimaldo; Terrier, Wirtz; Boniface.

Head to head

Rather remarkably given their now 45-year stay in the Bundesliga and their occasional forays deep into European competitions, this will be the first ever time that AC Milan will face off against Bayer Leverkusen.

Milan have played against teams from Germany 39 times in their nearly 125-year history though, with 17 wins, 12 draws and 10 defeats being the record to this point.

The first encounter with a team from there was the last 16 of the European Cup in 1955-56, a 7-5 aggregate win over FC Saarbrucken after a 4-3 home loss and a 4-1 away win.

The most recent games were against Borussia Dortmund in last season’s Champions League group stage: a 0-0 draw at the Signal Iduna Park which should have been a win but for missed chances, and a 3-1 defeat at San Siro during the centre-back injury crisis.

Key facts and stats

➤ Bayer Leverkusen and Milan have never previously met in European competition. In their previous 12 games against Italian sides in the UEFA Champions League, Leverkusen have only managed two victories (D4 L6), and lost each of the last three in a row.

➤ Milan have only lost one of their last eight games against German sides in the UEFA Champions League (W3 D4), although that one defeat did come in the most recent such game – 1-3 v last season’s finalists Borussia Dortmund in November 2023.

➤ Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last nine home games in major European competition (W6 D3), while they’ve never previously gone 10 in a row without defeat in such matches.

➤ Milan have only won their first away game in one of their previous seven UEFA Champions League campaigns (D5 L1), failing to do so in each of the last four (D1) since beating Zenit St Petersburg in 2012-13 (3-2).

➤ Following Bayer Leverkusen’s 4-0 victory over Feyenoord last time out, they could win their opening two games of a UEFA Champions League campaign for the first time since 2001-02; a season in which they would go on to reach the final (1-2 defeat to Real Madrid).

➤ This is Milan’s 21st season in the UEFA Champions League – only in 2021-22 have they ever lost both of their opening two games in a single campaign, with defeat on MD1 that year coming against Liverpool.

➤ Milan faced 11 shots on target in their 3-1 defeat to Liverpool on MD1, their joint-most on record (since 2003-04) in a single UEFA Champions League match. Indeed, only Dinamo Zagreb (6.3) and Slovan Bratislava (3.8) had a higher xG against than Milan (3.1) on MD1 of this season’s competition.

➤ Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in each of their last two UEFA Champions League games, while only once previously have they managed three successive shutouts in the competition (a run of three in October 2000-September 2001).

➤ Florian Wirtz has been directly involved in 24 goals in his last 26 starts for Bayer Leverkusen in European competition (12 goals, 12 assists), and became the first German player to score twice on his UEFA Champions League debut in his previous such game (two goals v Feyenoord on MD1).

➤ Christian Pulisic has netted in each of his last two UEFA Champions League appearances for Milan (two goals), while he could become the first player from the United States to score in three consecutive appearances in the competition.

Ones to watch

Pulisic is very much the danger man for Milan at the moment given his red-hot form in terms of goal contributions, while the experience of a player like Morata will be crucial if he does indeed play a part in the game.

However, given the strengths of Tuesday’s hosts it feels as though Fofana will play a critical role in keeping balance in the side between the two phases, while the centre-back pairing – be that Gabbia and Tomori or Gabbia and Pavlovic – will have to be at their attentive best.

In Pulisic is in incredible form for Milan, then Wirtz has been every bit as good for Die Werkself with his 12 goals and 12 assists in his last 26 appearances at club level, and the brace he got in the first Champions League round.

Xhaka is the midfield anchor and a real threat from distance, while the wing-backs Grimaldo and Frimgong combined for a ridiculous 58 goal contributions across all competitions last season. Tah, meanwhile, is the rock in the middle of the three-man defence and keeps being linked with a big move.

Prediction

We will try to remain on the positive side given the recent upturn in the league, but like the Liverpool game at San Siro the feeling is that Leverkusen have the attacking firepower to hurt any side, let alone a Milan team who still have to prove they can remain resolute defensively. The Rossoneri have goals in them though, so this could be a classic.

Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Milan