Statistical Analysis: How Hugo Ekitike Improves Liverpool | OneFootball

Why Liverpool Fans Should Be Excited About Hugo Ekitike

Liverpool supporters have grown used to excitement in recent years, but the potential signing of Hugo Ekitike promises something genuinely intriguing. The French striker has been linked with a move to Anfield this summer, and when you delve into the data, it becomes clear why comparisons with Darwin Nunez miss the mark.

Breaking Down Ekitike’s Statistical Profile

Football data analyst Spencer Mossman recently shared an illuminating statistical thread on X, offering a detailed look at Ekitike’s finishing record. On the surface, the Eintracht Frankfurt forward’s 2024/25 campaign appeared underwhelming, underperforming his non-penalty expected goals (npXG) by 5.3 goals, the largest negative gap across Europe’s top five leagues.

Yet, zooming out tells a different story. Across his 239-shot career, Ekitike has marginally outperformed his xG, scoring 34 goals from 33.6 expected. That places him around average overall, but the real revelation comes when looking specifically at high-value chances.

Photo: IMAGO

From 45 big opportunities (rated at 0.3 xG or higher), Ekitike has netted 25 times, outperforming names like Serhou Guirassy and Alexander Isak. This is a sharp contrast to Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez, who has scored just 17 goals from 57 similar chances. As Mossman aptly puts it, “When he’s expected to score, he does… That doesn’t sound like a finishing issue to me.”

Why Ekitike Fits Liverpool’s Needs

What makes Ekitike stand out is not just his finishing, but how he creates his chances. Only Ousmane Dembele across Europe’s elite leagues rivals his blend of a classic striker’s shot profile with the creativity usually associated with wingers.

He receives the ball in deeper areas, drives at defenders, and crafts his own shooting opportunities. While this lowers his conversion rate on speculative efforts, it highlights a crucial asset: the ability to generate danger from nothing. As Mossman points out, “Would you rather a 4% chance at a goal or a 0%? The answer is clear—you want the player that creates the most xG.”

Liverpool’s Transfer Strategy and Nunez’s Future

Under Arne Slot, who led Liverpool to the Premier League title in his debut season, recruitment has focused on smart, versatile additions. While Liverpool have explored higher-profile forwards like Alexander Isak, Ekitike offers a potentially more cost-effective solution, with the added benefit of versatility across the front line.

His arrival could also place fresh scrutiny on Nunez, whose inconsistent finishing has been a point of debate among supporters and pundits alike. With Luis Diaz also linked to a summer move, Liverpool’s attacking options may look very different by the end of the window.

For now, the data suggests that if Liverpool secure Ekitike, fans should not view him as a “second Nunez,” but rather as a unique forward with the potential to thrive in big moments — precisely what Liverpool need as they aim to build on their recent success.