Spain v England Euro 2024 Final: Mark's best bets including two 100/1 tips | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Could it be all songs in the street?

It's the EURO 2024 final between Spain and England and Mark Stinchcombe is here to talk about all of the best bets in the game...

Spain v England SuperBoost

England have made it to back-to-back European Championship finals and Betfair are offering up a SuperBoost to mark the occasion.

English football fans all know about Chelsea's Marc Cucurella, who has committed six fouls at Euro 2024 so far, and managing at least one offence in each of his five appearances at the tournament.

England (84) are the most fouled team in Germany, and boast Jude Bellingham (14) and Harry Kane (11) as two of the top four most fouled players in the competition.

He will also be most likely directly up against Arsenal's Bukayo Saka, who has won 10 fouls at the tournament so far, at 1.7 per 90, and, for whom he has previous with.

In both Arsenal v Chelsea meetings in the Premier League last season, Cucurella committed two fouls directly on Bukayo Saka in each game, and was involved in 10 fouls across the two matches (fouls won + fouls conceded).

Spain v England

It looks a tough ask for Gareth Southgate's England to beat Spain in 90 minutes based on his record when up against top 10 ranked FIFA nations. W7 D6 L10, so failing to win 16 of 23 matches (70%), scoring just 24 goals in that period. And it looks even harder when you consider Spain have been the best team in the tournament, having defeated all of France, Germany, Italy and Croatia on their way to the final. They sit top in all of the following metrics:

So not only have they been excellent with the ball creating chances, they've also been excellent at winning the ball back high up the pitch.

Spain have won 14 of their last 18 games in 90 minutes over the last 12 months (78%), compared to just three wins in their last 11 matches for England in 90 minutes. If you took the average of Spain's xG For and England's xG Against (2.2 and 0.7 = 1.45) and the average of England's xG For and Spain's xG Against (1.2 and 0.5 = 0.85) as a rough guide to forecast their output for the final, Spain's odds would actually be 10/11 yet the market has them priced at 7/5 so they have to be backed at the odds.

Player Bookings

Marc Guehi has been booked in three of his last seven starts for England since being essentially confirmed as Harry Maguire's replacement in the starting XI and is 4/1 to be carded here again. Guehi commits the second most fouls per-game for England and in the new back three system, will be tasked with coming across to clean up behind the full-back as well as dealing with superstar Lamine Yamal. Spain have committed the most fouls in the competition so it's worth doubling up Guehi with persistent carder Robin Le Normand. Booked in five of his last 11 caps, the Real Sociedad man picked up 13 cards in just 29 games last season in La Liga - the third most in the whole division. He's averaging 1.8 fouls per-game and will be up against Harry Kane, who himself has been fouled 1.8 fouls per-game.

Star Man Yamal

We can't let the final pass without betting on this superstar. He's had such a good tournament that he's now favourite to win both of senior and young player of the tournament. We can back him at 9/1 to hit two shots on target and be fouled at least twice. We've already mentioned Marc Guehi in opposition, and Yamal is averaging 2.7 shots per-game, with one on target pg whilst being fouled at least once on average. I really like the price when adding Harry Kane to do the same, and it's a great bet to cheer on as either side attacks. Kane is hitting 2.8 shots pg with one on target whilst being fouled nearly twice per-game as we mentioned above, where he'll meet Le Normand in opposition. The two combined pays 100/1.

Premier League Rivals to Clash

Marc Cucurella has been a mainstay of this Spanish team in Germany and looks set to be up against Bukayo Saka on the wing. We can back the Chelsea full-back to foul the Arsenal winger at 11/10. Cucurella is committing the fourth most fouls pg for Spain, whilst Saka is England's third most fouled player. There's history of this matchup as well with Cucurella fouling Saka four times in the Premier League last season. Let's also back him to foul Saka twice at 4/1. There could be some retaliation, especially with Saka committing the joint most fouls pg for England and Cucurella the most fouled Spanish player at 2.2pg. Both to foul each other is also recommended at 4/1. Finally a standout bet is Cucurella and Declan Rice to commit the most fouls for their respective teams. Rice commits the second most fouls pg for England and is up against three of four most fouled Spanish players in Alvaro Morata, Dani Olmo and Rodri.

Now read Opta's prediction of Spain v England

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