Serie A preview: Napoli vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

An important clash, which you could describe as a Champions League decider, awaits Milan at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona against Napoli.

Milan managed to clinch two consecutive wins before the international break and thus boosted their confidence, while also bringing the top-four goal back to life. As highlighted by Sergio Conceicao during his press conference, however, tomorrow’s game will be a very tough one.

Game date: Sunday, March 30 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST) Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona Referee: Simone Sozza (VAR: Meraviglia)

Team news

It’s been a good period for Milan in the last few weeks with two wins, both comebacks, and renewed hope in the top-four race. The international break also wasn’t too bad for the Rossoneri as there were no injuries, while several players boosted their respective confidence.

Emerson Royal is still out injured, and Yunus Musah will be serving a suspension, but aside from that Conceicao have a completely healthy squad. Ruben Loftus-Cheek came off the bench against Como and has been doing well in training, while Alessandro Florenzi is getting there as well.

According to the latest reports, the manager will play it safe for the big game, continuing with a backline of Kyle Walker, Matteo Gabbia, Malick Thiaw and Theo Hernandez. At this point, getting results is all that matters and consistency should help with that.

Photo by Alessandro Sabattini/Getty Images

In midfield, fans will perhaps have a few more question marks as Youssouf Fofana has looked decent lately. However, it seems Conceicao will opt for Warren Bondo and Tijjani Reijnders in the tandem, allowing Loftus-Cheek to play from start in the No.10 role.

The Englishman and Reijnders, now a must in the XI, will likely change positions throughout the game based on how the attacks look. On the flanks, it should be Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao despite reports earlier today of a start for Joao Felix, who is yet to impress fully.

For the No.9 role, Tammy Abraham has arguably been the best in recent weeks and he should thus get the chance over Santiago Gimenez. The Mexican will be an important resource off the bench but in terms of participating in open play, the Englishman has been a lot better.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Walker, Gabbia, Thiaw, Theo Hernandez; Bondo, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Abraham.

The opponents

After bringing in Antonio Conte as the new head coach, while making some good reinforcements (including Alessandro Buongiorno), many expected Napoli to at least be up there this season. Not to mention the lack of European football, which obviously helps with rest.

It has ended up being the case, with Napoli currently in second place, and their strength became clear already after the first ten games as they won eight of those. That being said, the feeling is also that the situation could have been much better at this point.

Indeed, in the last seven games, the Partenopei have picked up just eight points following one win, five draws and one defeat. There are some tougher games included in that run and they have at least not lost much, but it’s equally true that they easily could have been in first place now.

Photo by Timothy Rogers/Getty Images

Inter currently have a three-point cushion at the top and while Napoli can definitely recover that between now and the end of the season, the word ‘bottle’ comes to mind in this case. But it remains to be seen what will happen in the season finale, of course.

Taking a look at injuries and suspensions, Conte confirmed during his presser that Leonardo Spinazzola will miss the game altogether due to an injury. Frank Anguissa returned from international duty in a sub-optimal condition and Noah Okafor is still struggling with his physical condition.

Okafor left Milan for the Partenopei on loan with option to buy in January as Khvicha Kvaratskhelia left for Paris Saint-Germain. One can understand the frustration of Conte in that sense as the Swiss international hasn’t been anywhere near as good.

Predicted Napoli XI (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Olivera; Gilmour, Lobotka, McTominay; Politano, Lukaku, Raspadori.

Head to head

This is a classic fixture in Italian football, with Milan and Napoli having taken on each other 176 times so far. The Rossoneri have 70 wins to their name while the Partenopei have 52, with the remaining 54 games ending in draws (in other words, a rather common result).

The away record is rather positive for Milan as well, currently on an unbeaten run of six games. Their last defeat at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona came in the 2018-19 season, when Gennaro Gattuso’s side bottled a 2-0 lead in the second half.

The last encounter at the stadium, meanwhile, ended 2-2 after Napoli came back from two goals behind to snatch one point. Olivier Giroud scored both goals for the Rossoneri, in a quickfire manner we should add.

Napoli prevailed pretty comfortably in the reverse fixture this season, though, after goals from Romelu Lukaku and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. The San Siro record is indeed a lot weaker for Milan, which perhaps bodes well for tomorrow.

Key facts and stats

➤ In the last 12 Serie A meetings between Napoli and AC Milan, both sides won four games (D4), after the Partenopei had been unbeaten in each of their previous eight matches against the Rossoneri in the competition, winning six in the period.

➤ AC Milan are unbeaten in each of their last six away matches (W3 D3) against Napoli in all competitions and have they never gone seven successive games on the road without defeat against the Azzurri in their history.

➤ Napoli (61) have 14 points more than AC Milan (47) in the table: only in three of the 153 previous matches between the two sides in Serie A history have the Azzurri faced the Rossoneri with a higher advantage (+15 on February 8th, 2014; +25 on April 15th, 2018 and +23 on April 2nd, 2023).

➤ Only against Roma (nine) have Napoli lost more matches than against AC Milan (eight, as against Inter) after Italian national team games. Overall, Azzurri and Rossoneri have met 18 times after such games, with five wins for the Partenopei, five draws and eight wins for the Diavolo.

➤ Since the start of February, Napoli are winless in six of their seven Serie A matches (D5 L1): one more than in their first 22 games in the current top-flight season (D2 L3). Furthermore, with only eight points earned since the start of the 23rd matchday, the Azzurri would be 13th in the table in this period.

➤ AC Milan have picked up 47 points in 29 games in the current league season: since Serie A returned to 20 teams in 2004/05, only one team finished the season in the top four positions after having obtained a maximum of 47 points in the standings with nine games remaining, Sampdoria 2009/10 (fourth).

➤ After comeback wins against Lecce (3-2) and Como (2-1), AC Milan could win three Serie A matches in a row for the first time since last September: against Venezia, Inter and Lecce, under Paulo Fonseca.

➤ AC Milan and Napoli are two of the four teams to have gained the most points from losing positions in Serie A this season: 15 for the Rossoneri (along with Atalanta) and 14 for the Azzurri – Bologna first with 16.

➤ Since his debut in Serie A in 2019/20, Romelu Lukaku has been directly involved in eight goals (6G+2A) in 818 minutes against AC Milan in all competitions (one goal or assist every 102′): only Lautaro Martínez (10) has had a hand in more goals against the Rossoneri in the period among players in the Big five European leagues, but with 621 more minutes than the Belgian (one every 144′).

➤ Since he joined the Rossoneri last season, Christian Pulisic (30G+17A) is one of only two Serie A players to have both scored at least 30 goals and provided at least 15 assists in all competitions, along with Ademola Lookman (35G+15A).

Ones to watch

For Milan, if the reports are correct, seeing Loftus-Cheek back from start for the first time since December will be exciting indeed. There is no denying his physical presence on the pitch, but the question is whether he can be composed on the ball and make himself known inside the box.

We’ll go with another Englishman as well, namely Abraham, given just how well he has played lately. The assist against Como, for Reijnders, was absolutely wonderful and he seems to fit Conceicao’s style of play really well. But then again, he also needs to be lethal in and around the penalty box…

Photo by AC Milan

For the home side, Buongiorno was heavily linked with Milan before making the move to Napoli and he has been very solid this season. It will be very interesting to see how he will get on against the Rossoneri attackers.

Further up the pitch, McTominay has been a key player with seven goals and four assists in all competitions. He knows how to drive forward with the ball and be at the right place at the right time, so Milan will have to watch out.

Prediction

It will be a difficult clash for both sides, in my opinion, and there is so much at stake. The last train for Champions League vs. the last train (or at least one of the last) for the Scudetto. I think Milan could give Napoli a proper run for their money, especially given the positive last few weeks, but maybe it won’t be enough for the win.

Napoli 1-1 AC Milan