Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Lecce – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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SempreMilan

·26 settembre 2024

Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Lecce – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan will be looking to build on their dramatic late derby win over Inter and really kick-start their season when they welcome Lecce to San Siro on Friday night.

It really is a case of ‘what a difference a derby makes’ as Milan pulled out a rather surprise 2-1 win thanks to Matteo Gabbia’s 89th-minute header to claim the bragging rights, after a 3-1 defeat to Liverpool a few days prior that suggested Paulo Fonseca was on the brink of being sacked.

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Fonseca knows though that one result does not mean his side have definitively turned a corner, and in his pre-match press conference he stated that the derby win will only ‘make sense’ if they beat Lecce too.

Game date: Friday, September 27 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST) Venue: San Siro Referee: Luca Zufferli (VAR: Di Bello)

Team news

As mentioned, the important thing is for Milan to build on the momentum that such a big win will give them, especially because after Lecce’s visit there are tough away games against Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League and Fiorentina in Serie A.

In terms of injury problems, Ismael Bennacer is out until 2025 after undergoing a calf operation, Marco Sportiello is absent due to a hand injury and Alessandro Florenzi will be missing after knee surgery.

Furthermore, Davide Calabria picked up an injury before the Inter game and is a doubt for Friday night’s contest, while Malick Thiaw recovered from an ankle sprain to take a spot on the bench for the derby and is therefore considered available.

For the win against the Nerazzurri, Fonseca surprised many by fielding a team with four forwards, namely Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao on the flanks then Tammy Abraham alongside Alvaro Morata up front, and there have been doubts about whether that will/can be replicated.

Now that has turned into a doubt about whether Morata will play at all, given that Fonseca confirmed that he has been called-up but might not feature due to bursitis (inflamed joints) and suggested that he will not be risked.

With the doubts, it seems that the Portuguese coach will start Ruben Loftus-Cheek as the Trequartista, and when he took the field in the derby, he found himself in a similar position to Morata – drifting between roles as an attacking midfielder and a striker.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

Aside from that though, there should be no changes. Keeping the defensive line the same was a key point in Fonseca’s press conference. As a result, the same back four will likely sit in front of Mike Maignan.

Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders will once again be the controllers of the midfield, although the Dutchman could exchange roles with Loftus-Cheek throughout the game if he is better suited, as we have seen in the past.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Fofana, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Abraham.

The opponents

The 2023-24 season was an up-and-down one for Lecce as they in the end comfortably achieved Serie A survival for the second straight campaign, but changed coach from Roberto D’Aversa to Luca Gotti amid a run that saw them win just one of 17 games.

A few late wins under Gotti saw them over the line and allowed him to keep his job, and the Giallorossi faced the task of building a squad that was more consistent and could perhaps even push for a top half finish.

During the summer transfer window they signed five players for figures between €1-3m: Filip Marchwinski from Lech Poznan, Kialonda Gaspar from Estrela, Lassana Coulibaly from Salernitana, Christian Fruchtl from Austria Wien and Gaby Jean from FC Annecy.

They also added seven free agents including Frederic Guilbert from Strasbourg, Kevin Bonifazi from Bologna, Tete Morente from Elche and Ante Rebic who had been released by Besiktas after joining the Turkish side from Milan.

They made €30m in sales though, with Marin Pongracic joining Fiorentina for €15m, Valentin Gendrey heading to Hoffenheim for €8.5m and Gabriel Strefezza departing to join Como for €5m.

Lecce have had what would be fair to call a bumpy start to the 2024-25 season. They lost their opening two games 4-0 and 2-0 to Atalanta and Inter respectively, then beat Cagliari 1-0 despite having a man sent off, and they got an impressive 0-0 draw at high-flying Torino.

In the past week things took a turn, as the Salentini conceded two goals after the 90th minute to throw away a two-goal lead against Parma at home, they on Tuesday they were dumped out of the Coppa Italia with a 2-0 home defeat to Serie B side Sassuolo.

In terms of injury problems, Gotti will not have Jeppe Corfitzen or Mohamed Kaba as they recover from cruciate ligament injuries, with Joan Gonzalez, Nicola Sansone and Medon Berisha also expected to miss out. Guilbert, meanwhile, is suspended.

The aforementioned Coppa Italia defeat could have been due to a rotated XI with Gotti looking to have his best players fresh for the visit to Milan, and for this reason, Federico Baschirotto and Wladimiro Falcone will return to the back line.

In addition to this, Nikola Krstovic is expected to return to the starting side and lead from the front after being rested against Saussuolo.

Predicted Lecce XI (4-2-3-1): Falcone; Pelmard, Gaspar, Baschirotto, Gallo; Ramadani, Coulibaly; Morente, Oudin, Dorgu; Krstovic.

Head to head

Milan have faced off against Lecce 43 times across all competitions in their history, with 26 wins, 15 draws and just two defeats being the record, a win rate of 60.5%.

The game at the Studio Via del Mare was nothing short of chaos as Milan took a 2-0 first-half lead through Olivier Giroud and Reijnders before the home side roared back and equalised with quick-fire second-half goals from Sansone and Banda.

The drama did not end there though as Lecce looked like they had snatched a famous win with a volley from distance that caught Maignan out, yet it was disallowed for handball and then Giroud got a second yellow card.

At San Siro the game was far more routine, with Pulisic and Giroud scoring inside 20 minutes and then Leao adding a third just before the hour-mark to ensure no repeats of the farce earlier in the season.

The only time that Lecce have ever beaten Milan at San Siro came back in October 1997 – a game that was also in round six – when Govedarica and Casale fired them to a 2-1 win.

Key facts and stats

➤ Milan have avoided defeat in 24 of their last 25 matches against Lecce in Serie A (W13 D11), scoring 2.3 goals-per-game on average in the process (57 goals scored); the only Lecce success in this period came in April 2006 (1-0 at Via del Mare stadium).

➤ Milan have won 10 of their last 11 home games against Lecce in Serie A (D1), scoring 32 goals (2.9 per game) and conceding only six. Indeed, the Giallorossi have achieved only one win away against the Rossoneri in 18 previous such games in the competition (D3 L14), a 2-1 victory under Cesare Prandelli in October 1997

➤ After having won only one of their previous 10 league matches (D6 L3), Milan have won two games in a row in Serie A for the first time since between March and April 2024 (a run of five wins). Milan have avoided defeat in 15 of their last 16 home games in Serie A (W10 D5), scoring in each of these matches (37 goals, 2.3 per game); their only defeat in this period was against Inter in April.

➤ After their 0-0 draw against Torino and 2-2 stalemate against Parma, Lecce could draw at least three consecutive Serie A matches for the first time since across November and December 2023 (a run of four – the first of which against Milan, at Via del Mare stadium).

➤ Milan have scored 11 goals in Serie A this term; only in 2020-21 (12) had they scored more goals in their first five league matches of their previous 21 Serie A seasons.

➤ Only Cagliari (85) have attempted more shots than Lecce (82) and Milan (81, level with Roma) in Serie A this season, while only Atalanta (9.5) have accrued more expected goals in the competition so far than the Rossoneri (9.3).

Ones to watch

Starting with the visitors, Milan must be careful against Patrick Dorgu. The winger will face off against Emerson Royal and with the Brazilian full-back noticeably better on the front foot, he must be careful against the tricky Dorgu.

Sticking with Emerson, the former Tottenham defender has the chance to solidify himself as the starting right-back. Facing Dorgu will be a brilliant challenge for him, but is also is a chance for him to prove that the combination with Pulisic can be effective once again. If he, and Pulisic, can prove this, then Fonseca will have a difficult time looking elsewhere.

Following him, Ruben Loftus-Cheek has a lot to do against Lecce. With Morata set to be rested after a fantastic performance, the Englishman is taking on a big role that must be executed very well. The midfield is a difficult area to regain a position in currently, but if he has a good game he could look to make a push into the role.

Finally, the last area to watch is the attack. Against Inter, the front four were superb, but there were several chances to put the game past the Nerazzurri that weren’t taken. Now against a weaker opponent, they have to be more clinical if they get the chance to be.

Prediction

Milan have been scoring plenty of goals recently and the derby win simply has to inspire confidence in the side otherwise it was all for nought. Anything other than three points – with respect to Lecce – would be an unacceptable outcome that would reignite the previous doubts.

Milan 3-1 Lecce