Opta Predicts Championship Play-Off Final: Back Blades in 20/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

The richest game in football is here and we have got two heavyweights slugging it out at Wembley for a place in the big time.

Let's have a look at where the value is, utilising Opta data and statistics to inform our picks.

Got to get behind Sheffield United

Sheffield United finished third in the Championship after earning 90 points, which was 14 above fourth-placed Sunderland - the biggest ever gap between EFL play-off finalists - and 10 behind second-placed Burnley and champions Leeds United.

The Blades are just the third team in the history of the second tier to finish on 90 points and not win automatic promotion. Only Leeds last season and Sunderland in 1997/98 have done so, with both ominously losing in the play-off final.

As an interesting wrinkle, Sheffield United's play-off record is nothing short of dreadful. The Blades have been involved in eight play-off campaigns in the Championship and League One and failed to win promotion in any of them. That record includes five previous entries into the Championship play-offs, most recently losing to Nottingham Forest in the semi-final in 2021/22.

But results from years gone by clearly don't give the best justification when informing bets. The Blades players were obviously not bothered by history when handing out a 6-0 aggregate drubbing to Bristol City in the semi final - the largest margin of victory ever seen in the Championship play-offs.

Having finished 22 points above Liam Manning's side, there was no question about who the favourites were for progression - for context, sixth-placed Bristol City themselves finished just 21 points above the Championship relegation zone - but the manner of victory was no less impressive.

In terms of breaking down their performance in the semi-final, it makes sense to look at the first leg in more detail given that the tie was level at kick-off and will be more reflective of the gamestate on Sunday. It was, in simple terms, complete domination from visitors, who registered 2.77 xG to Bristol City's 0.23.

While Rob Dickie's red card on the stroke of half-time had an influence, it is worth pointing out that Bristol City ranked eighth for xG (59.4) in the regular season and came into the match on the back of an eight-match unbeaten run (6W 2D) at Ashton Gate.

Chris Wilder's side spent the second-longest of any Championship team in the top two (143 days) - 55 days more than Burnley and beaten only narrowly by Leeds (156 days). While they fell out of automatic promotion contention following a run of four defeats in their last seven matches of the regular season - 40% of their total league defeats all season - Sheffield United deserve to be considered in the top echelon of second-tier sides this season.

The Opta supercomputer, it appears, would agree with that, giving Sheffield United a 49.4% chance of wrapping up promotion inside 90 minutes at Wembley. Considering their price of 13/10 to do so, giving an implied probability of 43%, there is a hint of value in backing the Blades.

But if Sheffield United's progression to the Championship play-off final seemed a foregone conclusion from a long way out, Sunderland's was anything but. Dan Ballard's 122nd-minute goal at home to Coventry City sent the Black Cats to Wembley after a bruising encounter.

A 2-1 victory at the CBS Arena was followed by a 1-0 defeat (inside 90 minutes) at home, which sent the tie to extra-time. The second leg result, though, means that Sunderland go into the final having lost six of their last seven matches in regulation time across the league and play-offs. That 2-1 victory in Coventry, meanwhile, is their only victory in eight.

While it is a cliche to suggest that a team needs momentum coming into the play-offs in order to win them - neither of these have much - a complete loss of form is less than ideal. In a six-game winless run, which included five straight defeats to close out the regular season, Sunderland managed to have more than three shots on target in just one match - failing to muster any at all in a 2-0 defeat at Oxford United in their penultimate game.

Despite progression to the play-off final, the Black Cats also lost the xG battle in both legs of the semi-final and are rightly second-favourites here. With 45% of all second-tier play-off winners having come from third place, we're backing another one to do the same inside 90 minutes here.

Cooper to keep things tight

Wilder's 'stick your data where you want to stick your data' attitude resulted in Sheffield United being functional rather than exceptional, in comparison to Leeds or Burnley, in defence and attack.

But what they do have is a brilliant goalkeeper in Michael Cooper. Of any goalkeeper to play more than six games in the Championship, Cooper has the second-highest save percentage (78%) behind Burnley's James Trafford.

Sheffield United have kept a clean sheet in 24 of their 48 games including the play-offs, with only Burnley (30) and Leeds (25) having kept more. Cooper also prevented the fifth-most goals among goalkeepers with 2,000+ minutes in the competition (7.9) based on Opta's expected goals on target (xGOT) model (excluding own goals or penalties).

BTTS: No has landed in nine of the previous 12 Championship play-off finals and taking Cooper's performances and Sunderland's attacking woes into account, it is worth looking at here, priced at 3/4.

Of those 12 play-off finals, there has been one goal or fewer scored in seven and under 1.5 goals here is available at 7/4, while a correct score bet on 1-0 to Sheffield United - a repeat of these teams' meeting at Bramall Lane in November - is 11/2.

Hamer's having a party

Championship Player of the Season Gus Hamer could have a big say on Saturday's play-off final, having been brilliant throughout the course of the campaign.

The Brazilian's technical ability far outstrips that of most in the second tier and, while his total of nine goals and seven assists might not blow you away compared to others in the second tier, almost everything goes through him at the top of the pitch.

Hamer has created 77 big chances across the regular season and play-offs, which has him ranking fifth in the division for that particular statistic - more than any other Sheffield United or Sunderland player. He is priced at 4/1 for an anytime assist or 15/8 for a goal or assist.

Elsewhere, Sunderland's Wilson Isidor is worth getting against for goals or shots. The 24-year-old has scored just one goal in his last 15 appearances, having ended a 13-match goal drought in the first-leg victory over Coventry.

In his four most recent appearances, Isidor has had just one shot while he has only had more than two on three occasions in his last 15 matches.

With Hamer having averaged 2.2 shots per game over the course of the season, including nine in his last four appearances, consider backing him at 4/9 for two or more.

Thinking about discipline, Hamer's name again crops up having been issued with more yellow cards (13) than any other player in the Championship this season. He also ranks second among either squad for fouls (60) behind Vinicius Souza (65), so is a contender for a booking at 15/8 while Souza is 17/10 to pick up a card.

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