Norwich v Burnley: Canaries backed at Carrow Road | OneFootball

EFL Championship

Norwich have lost just once at home under Johannes Hoff Thorup

High-flying Burnley travel to Carrow Road to face Norwich on Sunday. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is backing the Canaries to put in a positive performance...

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Norwich v BurnleySunday December 15, 15:00Live on Sky Sports

Thorup pleased with Norwich response

Norwich boss Johannes Hoff Thorup was pleased with the reaction from his side after overseeing a battling performance in the 0-0 draw at Portsmouth in midweek. The Canaries chief demanded a response from last weekend's sorry 3-0 reverse at lowly QPR, altering his team's approach and gaining a first clean sheet on the road since August.

Thorup said: "Short story is that it is OK for us with a point. The attitude and the character from the boys was outstanding and what we needed after the game on Saturday. We have been talking about the risk-reward [balance] and today it was low risk and not too much reward. We accepted this was going to be tough, but we fought and battled very hard."

Kenny McLean started the first of a four-match ban on Tuesday night and the Scotsman will again be unavailable here. Ashley Barnes came into the team for first time since the start of the season, whilst Jose Cordoba replaced Kellen Fisher at centre-back with Callum Doyle returning to the left side of the back four. Jacob Sorensen also returned to the XI.

Burnley frustrated by lowly Derby

Burnley suffered a frustrating setback in the race for automatic promotion from the Championship after they were held to a goalless draw by Derby on Tuesday night. The Clarets saw plenty of possession but could not breach a resilient Rams rearguard; the final whistle was met with a smattering of boos from the Turf Moor faithful.

Burnley boss Scott Parker admitted it was "a frustrating night". He added, "We came here with a real purpose to get three points and that's not really manifested tonight. We huffed and puffed and fell a little bit short in the final third. The fine margins are tonight in our chances that we didn't manage to execute and it's certainly something we need to look at."

Parker made three changes to his team, with Josh Laurent, Zian Flemming and Lucas Pires coming into the starting XI for Luca Koleosho, Jay Rodriguez and John Egan. There was also a place on the bench for youngster Tommy McDermott, as midfielder Hannibal missed out through suspension - he's available again to feature for the Clarets on Sunday afternoon.

Canaries capable of big performance

Norwich were beaten in both of their Championship showdowns against Burnley during their last encounters in the 2022/23 campaign and the Canarias have tended to toil against the Clarets in league meetings since 2005 (W2-D3-L10). However, at Carrow Road, the hosts boast a W6-D2-L3 head-to-head supremacy against Burnley over the past 23 years.

Norwich 6/4 have dropped five points off the top-six following their failure to score in back-to-back away games. The Canaries have been at their best at home, mind, delivering W4-D4-L1 at Carrow Road and striking twice or more in six of those nine dates. Johannes Hoff Thorup boast the second-best non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) output at home.

Successive draws have left Burnley 7/5 outside of the automatic promotion places. Scott Parker's troops have been beaten just twice all season in the Championship, conceding a measly four goals. However, the Clarets have overachieved according to the underlying metrics, with only three second-tier sides generating a lower npxG figure thus far.

Close encounter forecast

Carrow Road has been a haven for goals this season - avergaing an enormous 4.22 goals per-game. Six of the nine showdowns here have featured winning Over 2.5 Goals 11/10 wagers, whilst seven have paid-out for Both Teams To Score 4/5 backers. Yet Burnley have been embroiled in the lowest-scoring matches in the division, avergaing only 1.55 goals.

The Clarets have kept a remarkable 13 (65%) clean sheets in their opening 20 tussles, including six in 10 away days. However, the high-flyers have notched twice or more on just five occasions, and their aforementioned lack of final-third threat has contributed to the visitors failing to win four of their six previous matches against top-10 opposition.

With that in-mind, plus Norwich suffering a sole reverse at Carrow Road, I'm happy to support Norwich Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals here at 4/5. We get the 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 or 2-1 home triumph onside, as well as the 0-0 or 1-1 draws. Only one of Burnley's last 18 Championship dates has featured three goals or more, let alone four.

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