Newcastle v West Ham: Back Isak to heap more pressure on Lopetegui | OneFootball

English Premier League

In-form Alexander Isak can put a nail in the Hammers coffin once more

Newcastle host West Ham in the Monday Night Football offering, and if the game goes to recent form then we'll see plenty of goals and a Magpies striker getting on the scoresheet. Mike Norman previews...

Newcastle v West HamMonday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Tide turning for Magpies

It was all doom and gloom on Tyneside a few short months ago as Newcastle went on a five-game winless run in the Premier League from mid September to the end of October.

As a north east resident myself I can confirm that the local sports news was regularly questioning what direction the mega rich Magpies were going, and even Eddie Howe's position was being questioned in some quarters.

Fast forward a few weeks and everything is rosy again at St James' Park. A victory over Chelsea in the EFL Cup was a welcome tonic - followed by a draw that gave Newcastle a very winnable quarter-final tie at home to Brentford - and then back-to-back league wins over Arsenal and Nottingham Forest sent Howe's men into the international break in buoyant mood.

Victory over West Ham on Monday night will move the Magpies up to sixth in the table, two points ahead of the teams immediately below them and just one point behind third-placed Chelsea, so you can fully understand the change in mood at the club.

Star man of course is Alexander Isak, who after an interrupted start to the season because of injuries, has now scored in all of Newcastle's last four games. He should play a pivotal role against the Hammers, as long as his penalty miss for Sweden in midweek hasn't dented his confidence in any way.

Away day woes for Hammers

If the mood at Newcastle has flipped from a negative one to a positive one, it's not too much of an exaggeration to suggest it's the opposite at West Ham.

The Hammers started the season pretty well with two victories in their first three games under new boss Julen Lopetegui, but that early season promise has rather evaporated with West Ham producing some drab performances, especially on the road, resulting in the club dropping to 14th in the table, just four points above the drop zone.

Lopetegui's men have won just two of their last 10 games in all competitions, both of those on home soil, and away from home they're on a run of five games without a win, conceding five at Liverpool, four at Tottenham, and three at Nottingham Forest just before the international break.

It's that 3-0 defeat at the City Ground that seems to have really stoked up the pressure on Lopetegui, and the West Ham boss was the clear second favourite at 15/8 on the Betfair Sportsbook to be the next Premier League manager to leave. before the news of Steve Cooper's sacking on Sunday afternoon.

They'll travel to the north east without two of their main goalscoring threats, Mohammed Kudus (suspended) and Niclas Fullkrug (injured), and the Opta stat that tells us that West Ham have shipped a league-high 35 away goals in 2024 is hardly encouraging.

Howe's men should get the job done

At 1/2 in the Match Odds market - or 2/5 if you prefer the insurance of Match Odds 90 - Newcastle are about the right price to me, though as a single it's hardly a bet that will get the mouth watering.

But if you factor in that Newcastle are on a three-game winning run, and that on home soil this season they've already defeated the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham while also holding Man City to a draw, then it's easy to see that St James' Park is a bit of a fortress for the Magpies.

Combine that with West Ham's shoddy away form and the only conclusion to arrive at is that Newcastle are the bet at 1/2. It's very difficult to make a case for the Hammers winning the game at 5/1, with the Draw price of 4/1 equally unappealing.

Confidence in a home win is only enhanced when you read the Opta stats that tell us that Newcastle have lost to West Ham only once in their last 10 meetings, and that they're unbeaten in all five meetings with the Hammers under Eddie Howe.

Alexander the Great

I will include a Newcastle win in my main bet, but as alluded to above, a price of 1/2 is not something I'd ever think of recommending on its own in a match preview tipping column.

The simplest way for me to enhance the home win odds is to add Alexander Isak anytime scorer to the bet.

The Swede is in great form, scoring in each of his last four games for Newcastle, and in even better news, he loves playing against West Ham. Isak has scored in all three fixtures against the Hammers including a brace in both fixtures last term, and with Lopetegui's men having a very poor away record a price of 10/11 about him scoring again is fair.

A Newcastle win with Isak scoring anytime can be backed at 11/8 and is my best bet of the game.

I would understand anyone questioning the logic of this bet given that 11/8 isn't much bigger than 10/11, so why not back Isak to score on his own without the risk of the match outcome not going our way.

But as the odds suggest, a Newcastle win is far more likely than Isak scoring and the Magpies failing to win (which is around 7/1 if you're wondering), so at the slightly bigger price I'm happy with the recommended bet.

In addition, we can get the above scenario on board (Isak scoring and covering the possibility of Newcastle now winning) by adding both teams to score to a Bet Builder.

This exact fixture - Newcastle at home to West Ham - has seen a glut of goals in recent years. All bar one of the last eight fixtures have produced at least three goals. The last six fixtures alone have produced an incredible 27 goals (an average of 4.5 per game), and what stands out here is that the Hammers scored 15 of those goals, scoring at least once in every game.

Newcastle's defence is already missing some big names, none more so than Sven Botman, and with local lad Dan Burn suspended there's every chance that West Ham will get on the scoresheet in another high-scoring game.

So let's take Yes in the Both Teams to Score market, Isak to score anytime, and Over 3.5 Goals in the game, which pays out at 11/4. At least then if Isak scores and Newcastle fail to win, we'll have a great chance of landing this bet. But let's hope we land both. Good luck.

Recommended bets

Back Newcastle to Win & Alexander Isak to Score Anytime @ 11/8

Back BTTS - Yes, Over 3.5 Goals & Isak to Score Anytime @ 11/4