Newcastle Guehi Bid: Walk Away At £70m | OneFootball

Why Newcastle Should Walk Away from the Marc Guehi Deal After Crystal Palace’s £70m Price Tag

When a football club has their fourth bid for a player rejected, it raises serious questions about the viability of the deal. Newcastle United’s pursuit of Marc Guehi has encountered a significant hurdle as Crystal Palace holds firm on a staggering £70 million valuation, despite Newcastle’s latest offer of £65 million. This standoff highlights a considerable disparity in how both clubs value the player, prompting a crucial decision: Should Newcastle step back from this negotiation? The evidence strongly suggests they should.

Guehi’s Quality: Impressive but Not Extraordinary

Since his transfer from Chelsea in 2021, Marc Guehi has proven himself a reliable centre-back at Crystal Palace, with notable performances in the Premier League and during Euro 2024. His strategic insights, calmness under pressure, and leadership have solidified his role at Palace. At only 24, Guehi has significant room for growth, but the current asking price overshoots his present market worth and skill level.

Photo: IMAGO

Crystal Palace’s chairman Steve Parish has openly lauded Guehi, though his comments seem to inflate Guehi’s market position excessively. Parish’s assertion that Guehi deserves “superstar money” because he is perceived as a superstar conflicts with the reality of Guehi’s actual on-field impact and market value.

Aerial Duels: The Stat That Should Concern Newcastle

A critical examination of Guehi’s aerial duel success rate reveals a potential vulnerability. Winning only 50% of aerial challenges does not meet the benchmark for top-tier defenders in the league, which could be a liability for Newcastle, a team that values dominance in aerial contests across the pitch. When compared to elite defenders who command similar fees, like Virgil van Dijk or Rúben Dias, Guehi’s capabilities in aerial duels and his scoring contributions from set-pieces appear limited.

The Contract Situation: A Ticking Time Bomb

The strategic aspect of Guehi’s current contract, which has only two years remaining, diminishes Palace’s leverage. As the contract winds down, the risk increases that Guehi could leave for a lower fee or even on a free transfer, making the proposed £70 million fee appear even more disproportionate.

Newcastle, with their eyes on competing at the highest levels both domestically and in European competitions, must judiciously enhance their squad. While Guehi exhibits several admirable qualities, the financial outlay required under the present terms does not align with prudent long-term investment criteria, especially considering his average aerial performance and the decreasing contractual term.

Alternative Options

Fortunately, the market is replete with alternative centre-back options who could fulfil Newcastle’s criteria more effectively and economically. Talents from clubs like Bayer Leverkusen, RB Leipzig, and Lyon offer attributes that align better with Newcastle’s strategic objectives, including superior aerial strength and more favourable financial terms.

Statistical Analysis by EPL Index: Marc Guéhi’s Tactical Profile

Marc Guéhi’s Defensive Mastery and Attacking Contribution

The recent performance data for Marc Guéhi, as presented by Fbref, offers an illuminative view into the centre-back’s playstyle and efficacy. Guéhi, who has spent considerable time at the heart of Crystal Palace’s defence, exhibits a blend of defensive rigour and budding attacking potential. Analysing his stats over the last 365 days, one notes his defensive actions—such as tackles and interceptions—are slightly below the median for Premier League centre-backs, with his tackles percentile at 35 and interceptions at 15.

However, Guéhi’s game isn’t solely about traditional defending. His ability to participate in building plays is evident from his 86.9% pass completion rate and his reasonably high number of progressive carries and passes, marking him in the 58th and 38th percentiles respectively among peers. These figures suggest Guéhi’s role as a modern defender who is comfortable with the ball, capable of initiating attacks as well as halting them.

Aerial Prowess and Playmaking Abilities

Guéhi’s knack for playmaking from the back is illustrated by his shot-creating actions, with a percentile of 64. This, combined with his assist potential (77th percentile for xA – expected assists), suggests that he adds considerable value to his team’s offensive endeavours, contrary to the typical expectations from a centre-back.

Contractual Considerations and Market Value

Given his current performance levels and the statistical backing for his playstyle, Marc Guéhi presents as a valuable asset for any elite club. With only two years left on his contract, potential suitors would be weighing the cost against these demonstrable on-field metrics. For clubs scouting defensive talents who can contribute both defensively and in transition, Guéhi’s profile is compelling.

The rich tapestry of performance data from Fbref allows a nuanced understanding of Guéhi’s capabilities and areas for potential improvement, showcasing why he remains a hot prospect in the transfer market discussions.