MLS Week 23 Best Bets | OneFootball

Match- FC Cincinnati host Columbus Crew

This weekend will see another edition of the “Hell is Real” Derby when FC Cincinnati hosts the Columbus Crew.  Both teams avoided midweek matches and will get down to business as usual in MLS Week 23.

The Crew have 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses on the road this season, and haven’t won an away match since they started the season with 3 wins and 1 draw.  Since their April 13th road win they have 2 losses and 3 draws.

FC Cincinnati have 6 wins, 2 draws, and a single loss at home.  They have a +6 goal differential there through 9 matches, and are currently on a 4 match winning streak.

Pick- FC Cincinnati +110

My betting model shows FC Cincinnati have a 46.5% probability of getting a win, which at +110 reflects a 1.12% loss on what sportsbooks are offering. This is acceptable for me to get action in what has been an exciting derby over the past few years.

With Nick Hagglund set to miss another match, I would also feel confident with pairing a Cincinnati win with the over on a small goal total or Both Team To Score bet.

Match- Philadelphia Union host NY Red Bulls

MLS Week 23 has the Philadelphia Union hosting the New York Red Bulls which was supposed to be the second part of a double match week.  The two should have met Wednesday, also at Subaru Park, in a rained-out Open Cup match.

The Red Bulls haven’t beaten the Union in 14 straight matches.  Their last victory was a 2-0 home win in September of 2019.

Pick- Philly DC & O2.5 +130

While these teams historically love a good draw, I do favor the Philadelphia Union outright.  To get coverage against the draw, however, I am pairing the double chance (Philly to win or draw) with the over 2.5 goal total.

The Philadelphia Union have hit the over on 2.5 goals in 80% of their 2025 matches.  While that number is actually low for RBNY, the quality of their road opponents has been questionable.  This is an actual test, so I like goals this weekend.

Match- Toronto FC host Atlanta United

This weekend in MLS Week 23, Toronto FC will host Atlanta United.  While both teams have struggled this season, Toronto more openly addressed their issues by sending out Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi.  Rome wasn’t built in a day, but Toronto looked slightly better in a 3-0 win over Portland and 3-1 loss at NYCFC.

Atlanta, on the other hand, hasn’t been able to address their issues, especially on offense.  They scored only 1 goal in their last 4 matches, conceding 9 in that same span.

I probably favor Toronto FC with the win, but definitely don’t want to get involved in sweating a conclusion for this matchup.

Pick- Toronto Team Total Over 1.5 Goals +126

Toronto has already played a majority of their home matches for this season, and after this weekend have only 5 of their final 14 matches in Toronto. They are going to want to show their home fans something before being on the road for over a month, returning on August 16th.

Toronto has scored over 1.5 goals in only 25% of their matches, yet will face Atlanta United who conceded 22 times in 10 road matches. Without a single road win in 2025, Atlanta are once again going to be on the losing side of this one.

While Toronto doesn’t get me excited at their current odds to win, I like them to score twice.  At +126 this pick gives us a slight advantage on the implied probability of most sportsbooks.

Match- Austin FC host New England Revolution

MLS Week 23 will feature an interconference match as Austin FC hosts the New England Revolution.  I immediately thought this match would be low scoring, as the Revolution are seeing only 2.55 goals per match. They conceded only 12 goals away from home this season, which is a fantastically low number.

Austin is also on “Team Under,’ seeing only 1.6 total goals average in their home matches.

Pick- Under 2.5 Goals -108

When two unfamiliar teams play, I generally think they are going to be somewhat conservative. As Austin FC will also be without star striker Brandon Vazquez for the rest of the season, I think the under 2.5 goals in this matchup is easily predictable.  In fact, I would have gone down to under 1.5 goals if I needed to.

To add some more numbers, Brandon Vazquez has 5 goals, which accounts for 33% of the team’s 15 total goals.  Yuck.

Austin FC and the Revolution are also going to have worn legs from travel and midweek matches, which affects the offenses more than the defenses. The odds are -108 now, but will probably get worse before kickoff.

Match- Chicago Fire host San Diego FC

This weekend the Chicago Fire will host San Diego FC in another interconference matchup. Luckily for us, I don’t think the conservative approach will serve them well in MLS Week 23.

I like goals in this, considering Chicago has seen 75 goals in 20 matches.  While many of those include hefty away totals, I think their game provides enough “weird” to get me excited for the over.

Pick- Over 2.5 Goals +130

San Diego FC is exciting to watch, and even when they lose they hit overs.  SDFC scored 2.1 goals per match on average, including 2.2 goals per game on the road. They are seeing over 3.5 goals in 50% of away matches, and each of their last 4 games. In fact, they have seen 26 goals in their last 4 matches (!!).

Chicago doesn’t need to contribute more than a single goal to reach the over 3.5 goals, and I do think they find the back of the net this week.  I want to see them play more openly, like they do on the road, and this could be a really fun game to catch live.

Match- Sporting KC host Seattle Sounders

This Saturday in MLS Week 23, Sporting KC will host the Seattle Sounders.  Sporting KC has been good to me this season, winning at opportune times and hitting goal totals.

SKC is averaging 1.7 goals per game at home, and have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 7 MLS games. In this match, I like Sporting KC to find the back of the net two times or more.

The Seattle Sounders might have something to say this weekend, as they are a team that plays to unders.  Their +12 home goal differential and -10 away differential tell the story, though; Seattle is a win at home and lose on the road kind of team.

Pick- Sporting KC Team Total Over 1.5 +136

The last wildcard here is going to be a few notable players out or questionable.  Seattle will be without defensive midfielder Joao Paulo, defender Stuart Hakins, winger Paul Arriola, and possibly without defenders Yeimar Gomez and Kim Kee-Hee.

The kicker is the loss of goalkeeper Stefan Frei, who will be out after a scary head injury that saw Seattle’s match with LAFC end short after he was brought off the pitch in an ambulance. Without his guidance of an injury-riddled backline, I think Seattle can be in trouble.

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