Juventus v Manchester City: Back a cagey affair as under 2.5 goals appeals at 21/20 | OneFootball

Club World Cup

Man City fans at the Club World Cup

Lewis Jones thinks the two runaways in Group D will serve up a cagey affair at the Club World Cup, and wants to get the under goals lines on side...

Juventus v Manchester CityThursday 26 June, 20:00Live on DAZN

We've seen some corking encounters in the final round of group stages so far, most notably Tuesday morning's chaos as Inter Miami, Palmeiras, Al-Ahly and Porto managed to score 12 goals between them. However, when it comes to final group games in major tournaments history tells us that this format does tend to lead to goals drying up in the final round of games.

Based on the last three World Cups and European Championships the 84 games played in this slot have produced 199 goals - working out to a 2.37 goals per game average. It makes sense when trying to put some logic behind the numbers as there are situations where teams are in results mode only and don't need to turn on he style and, of course, situations like what Juve and Man City find themselves in where qualification is assured, and managers decide to rotate.

This can lead to very low intensity games where the average goals figure can drop below what is expected by the market.

Despite the prospect of facing Real Madrid in the last 16 if finishing second it sounds like Pep Guardiola is sticking to his guns and willing to use his entire squad, making 11 changes if needs be. Rotation for Juve perhaps is a little more up for debate with boss Igor Tudor building some momentum in a role which he's got plenty of doubters that he's fit for. Back-to-back wins at the Club World Cup mean Juventus have lost just one of their last 11 fixtures, winning the last four by an aggregate of 14-3.

It's difficult to see this game descending into shootout territory even just from the City side of things. Guardiola has tried to fix their problems of mid-season by being as controlled and risk-free as possible and it's leading to some bleak levels of entertainment. Their last 10 games across all competitions have averaged just 2.3 goals per 90 minutes with seven of those falling under the 2.5 goals line - not a bet you usually associate with a Guardiola team.

It's worth following the under 2.5 goals line in again here at

Take shots prices on 'fresh start' Foden

This second official tip is of course highly reliant of team news and Guardiola making the expected changes the pattern of his team selections suggest. Phil Foden has had six shots and two of those on target at this competition so far in just 105 minutes of action. Foden declared that "the hunger inside me is back and I want to prove people wrong" and has spoken of this tournament being a fresh start for him after a troubled 12 months where much of the crux of his dramatic form loss can be put down to serious fatigue after a non-stop period of playing top-level football for City and England.

A bounce-back might just be on the horizon next season and jumping on this trend early could be crucial in order to maximise the value. Back the England man to have a shot on target in the first half at 17/10 feels like a price to attack with confident stakes.

Recommended bets

Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.14 Back Foden to have a shot on target in first half @ 17/10