FA Cup Final Tips: Palace pair offer Wembley value | OneFootball

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Two in-form Crystal Palace attackers can make a mark in Saturday's FA Cup final against Manchester City, says Dave Tindall...

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Crystal Palace v Man City

Palace hoping to make history

For Crystal Palace, they'll hope it's third time lucky. They've reached just two previous FA Cup finals but both times were turned over by the other lot from Manchester.

First, they lost 1-0 to United in a 1990 replay after a 3-3 thriller in the initial game at Wembley when Ian Wright briefly put them ahead in extra-time. And, more recently, they were leading with nine minutes left in 2016 before being turned over in extra-time. For both, it was close but no cigar.

Palace secured another crack after blowing away Aston Villa 3-0 in the semis and that followed another 3-0 success in the last eight against Fulham at Craven Cottage.  That's quite a step-up from the third round when they only edged past League One Stockport 1-0.

It all means Oliver Glasner becomes the first Austrian manager to take charge of a team in an FA Cup final.

Chance for City to end difficult season on a positive

City are competing in their 14th FA Cup final but that tally is very much tilted to the modern era. This is their sixth final in the last 15 years and third in a row.

They aren't strangers to losing it when clear favourites though. Wigan produced a mighty shock to stun City in the 2013 final while United upset the odds to overturn Pep Guardiola's men 2-1 in last year's final.

That all-Manchester final 12 months ago came after City had banked a fourth straight Premier League title but a glance at the table before this year's Wembley showpiece shows City in fourth spot, 18 points behind new champions Liverpool.

After a last-16 loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League and a Carabao Cup exit against Spurs, this is the final chance for City to bank some proper silverware. A Community Shield win over United on penalties in August won't provide any consolation to what Erling Haaland has called a "horrific season" if Saturday's final ends in defeat.

City clear favourites but contrasting clues to be found

Manchester City are clear 3/4 favourites to win this in regulation time, with Crystal Palace 10/3 and The Draw 11/4.

As for who emerges holding the trophy if extra-time or penalties are needed, it's Man City 2/5 and Palace 15/8.

Exhibits A and B when trying to assess this one must be the two previous meetings this season. In the first clash in December, Palace led twice in a 2-2 draw at Selhurst Park. And in April's return, Palace burst into a 2-0 lead after 21 minutes before City roared back to win 5-2.

So which bit of that second game counts for more? Palace could actually have gone further ahead as they cut through the hosts far too easily but it's hard to deny that a Kevin De Bruyne-inspired City weren't excellent after getting a foothold through the Belgian's 33rd-minute free-kick.

Head-to-head goal count high

If going on head-to-head form, we can expect goals. The last four meetings have produced scorelines of 5-2, 2-2, 4-2 and 2-2, City racking up the two wins in that run. In fact, Pep's men haven't lost to Palace in seven games although three of those have been draws.

It's 8/11 for the goal count to go over three again while Under 2.5 is 11/10. For the record, four of the last eight finals have produced three or more goals so I'd be looking at Over 2.5 if playing this market.

Palace pair stand out

With goals expected, the scorer markets look an obvious place to focus on. It's pretty clear that Palace don't have a problem scoring against City - the Eagles have netted twice in each of the last four meetings - and their players are simply better value than City's when comparing prices to goal output.

It'll come as no surprise that the Palace pair I like are Eberechi Eze and Ismaila Sarr.

Eze netted a fantastic opener in the FA Cup semi-final win over Villa and the England attacker is in quite brilliant form right now. A brace in the 2-0 win over Tottenham last weekend made it eight goals in 11 games and that includes the opener against City in April. For some contrast, that's one more than Haaland has managed in the last 11.

The contrast in price is massive: Haaland is evens to score anytime while Eze is 3/1. That's quite the difference and and let's note that the Norwegian has fired blanks in all five of his Wembley outings with City.

I also like the idea of Palace striking first. It makes sense as they've got the opening goal in each of the last three encounters with City.

Eze got the opener in the 5-2 at the Etihad so I'll also play him to be First Goalscorer at 17/2. He's broken the deadlock in each of his last three starts for Palace so it's been a real theme of late.

If Palace do hurt City on the break, the galloping runs of Sarr are likely to be central to that.

The man from Senegal scored twice against Villa in the semis to follow his brace against the same team in the league meeting in February.

City, like Villa, play a high line and Sarr, who has six goals in his last 13 games for Palace, can score anytime at 7/2.

City rally a likely storyline

I'll also try and land a big fish using that idea that Palace are out of the blocks fast. In this scenario, City fight back after the break and eventually get it done and that's the way I envisage Saturday's game unfolding. Yes, even if City go 2-0 down (hopefully to goals from Eze and Sarr!) at some point.

The bet is that Palace lead at half-time but City end up hoisting the trophy - either by hitting back in normal time or getting over the line in extra-time or via spot-kicks.

The other element is that Eze gets a goal for Palace during the 90 minutes. We're looking at a payout of around 33/1 if this lands.

Perhaps that would sum up City's season. It seems to be going horribly wrong but they do actually find a way when it matters.

Low bookings the shout for clean City

Stuart Atwell is the man in the middle. The Warwickshire official has flashed 122 yellows and three reds in 29 matches this season so he basically issues four bookings a game.

Back to those head-to-heads and there were five yellows shown in City's 5-2 win while in the 2-2 draw there was one booking for Palace and a red for City's Rico Lewis. In the season before, both games had just two yellows.

The Fair Play table in the Premier League this season shows that City are the cleanest team in the top-flight while Palace are 12th. Scope perhaps for Under 3.5 cards at 6/5.

Recommended bets

1pt - Back Eberechi Eze To Score @ 3/1

1pt - Back Eberechi Eze for First Scorer @ 17/2

1pt - Back Ismaila Sarr To Score @ 7/2

0.5pts - Back Crystal Palace to lead at Half Time, Eberechi Eze To Score & Man City To Lift The Trophy @ 33/1

Ste Tudor's Build Ups Tips:

Player to have more shots on target

There is a huge amount of sentiment and narrative surrounding Kevin De Bruyne this weekend, this being his last big hurrah in a Manchester City shirt.

The Belgian maestro will be hell-bent on leaving on a high, happy-ending a decade’s worth of fabulous football for the multiple league winners.

It feels downright wrong therefore to back against the 33-year-old, instead opting for a winger bang in form to fire more shots goal-bound. But back against him we must at Wembley.

De Bruyne’s SOT tally in recent weeks has been perfectly decent, very decent in fact, with eight attempt on target in his last six outings. Yet anyone who has watched him on a weekly basis will know that he is becoming increasingly match-worn. Against Southampton last weekend he was – dare I say it – merely a passenger.

Eberechi Eze by comparison is firing on every cylinder, racking up six SOT in his last six and scoring from five of them. The Palace man posted one SOT/one goal vs City last month at the Etihad, but for a tight offside call it would have been two.

Player to commit more fouls

With City expected to have the bulk of the possession, and with a vast Wembley pitch to cover, it is inconceivable that Jefferson Lerma doesn’t leave a trailing leg or pull on a shirt at least once this Saturday afternoon. No doubt his actions will be born of pure frustration, at City’s multitude of short passes under a blazing hot sun.

Even against lesser teams, however, the Colombian has proven form for having a short-fuse under pressure. He has been booked in four of his last five appearances and has a foul average of 1.32 per 90 this term.

He is pitted here against Bernardo Silva, a tenacious terrier of a player who has fouled eight times in his last six showings. Deployed more central of late, alongside Mateo Kovacic explains this recent rise.

Crucially though Silva will be in possession far more than his counterpart and this seals the deal.

Staked: 80.5pts

Returned: 58.17pts

P/L: -22.33pts

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