Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Aston Villa 0 Newcastle 0

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The Mag

·17 agosto 2025

Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Aston Villa 0 Newcastle 0

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the five Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Aston Villa 0.32 v Newcastle United 1.40 (0-0)

Brighton 1.44 v Fulham 0.90 (1-1)

Sunderland 0.72 v West Ham 0.56 (3-0)

Tottenham 1.98 v Burnley 0.73 (3-0)

Wolves 0.47 v Man City 2.31 (0-4)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Those Expected Goals stats giving us a better idea of how these matches really went, going beyond just the final scoreline.

Looking at the matches above, both Tottenham and Man City clearly deserving their wins having far higher Expected Goals stats than Burnley and Wolves respectively.

Brighton edging the Expected Goals stats in their match but not by a great deal, so Fulham maybe just about deserving their point.

As for the Mackems, the Expected Goals stats make clear (0.72 v 0.56) that on balance of play it should have been a draw. Indeed, you look at the other stats in their match and West Ham the more dominant team with more shots (12 v 10), more possession (63% v 37%), more corners (7 v 5) and more touches in the opposition box (28 v 15). Sunderland though taking the few chances that came their way.

Newcastle United had an Expected Goals stat that was more than four times higher than Aston Villa, 1.40 v 0.32.

Eddie Howe’s side defending very well against a tough opponent and giving them basically no real clear chances. Villa’s Expected Goals stat was easily the lowest of the 10 teams playing on Saturday.

Newcastle simply didn’t take advantage of their dominance and as well as the massive Expected Goals stat advantage, despite playing away from home Newcastle by far the better of all the other stats – Possession 59% v 41%, shots 16 v 3, corners 6 v 3, touches in the opposition box 33 v 14.

Saturday was frustrating because a number of players failed to finish some excellent chances especially Elanga and Gordon. However, that doesn’t take away from the fact that there was a lot to like about this United performance, as the Expected Goals stats point to.

Aston Villa 0 Newcastle 0 – Saturday 16 August 2025 12.30pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Villa

Konsa red card 66

(Stats in brackets are at half-time)

Possession was Newcastle 59% (58%) Villa 41% (42%)

Total shots were Newcastle 16 (8) Villa 3 (0)

Shots on target were Newcastle 3 (2) Villa 3 (0)

Corners were Newcastle 6 (3) Villa 3 (2)

Touches in the box Newcastle 33 (18) Villa 14 (5)

Newcastle team v Aston Villa: