Euro 2024 Day Eleven Predictions: Back 11/4 Barella Booking with Betfair Exchange | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Jimmy says Nicolo Barella is a big price to be booked

Who will join Spain in the knockouts at Euro 2024? Jimmy The Punt has picked out two best bets from Monday's action as qualification from Group B is decided...

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Albania vs Spain

Spain have already secured their spot in the round of 16 after taking maximum points from their clashes with Croatia and Italy.

Whilst the 3-0 win over the former certainly flattered them, the 1-0 win of Italy did not.

La Roja had the lion's share of possession (57%) against Gli Azzurri, racked up an xG of 2.02 from 20 shots, created six 'big chances' and most impressively only shipped an xGA of 0.16.

It affords Luis de la Fuente the luxury to rest and rotate ahead of this clash with Albania.

Rodri misses out with suspension but the likes of Mikel Oyarzabal, Mikel Merino, Ferran Torres, Alejandro Grimaldo and veteran right back Jesus Navas could all feature from the off on Monday.

This could see a disjointed Spain performance.

Albania has everything to play for. With one point and a superior goal difference to Croatia, three points may see them into the knockouts.

Sylvinho's side will be bolstered by the nature of the draw with Italy, so will head into this clash in a bolshy mood.

Albania have made a habit of netting first and could catch a rotated Spain squad off guard here. Backing both teams to score at 2.06 appeals.

Croatia vs Italy

Croatia needed to beat Italy for a chance of progressing to the knockout stages. It is as simple as that.

This summer has felt like the end of an era for Zlatko Dalić's side though.

The starting midfield three against Albania of Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic and Mateo Kovacic had a combined age of 99 and played as you might expect; sluggish and with a lack of organisation.

It allowed the much better organised Albania's to sit back and counter to great effect, taking the lead with their first shot on 11 minutes.

At half-time, Brozovic made way and Modric's influence grew on the game, forcing Albania further and further back before Andrej Kramaric equalised and then Croatia took the lead two minutes later via an own goal.

Albania's last gasp equaliser meant it felt like the cliched two points dropped rather than one won for Croatia.

However, if they can get the job done in Leipzig, and hope Spain beat Albania in the other game, they finish second.

At 3.35, I almost took the Croatia win and not just because they have to win but because they have been massively unfortunate to only take one point from the six on offer.

Croatia have won the xG battles in both games, boasting an xGD of +1.59.

My soft spot for the Checkered Ones almost made me miss the glaringly obvious; this is the final game of the group stage, with something riding on the match for both sides. Cards have to be the play.

A point may prove to be enough for Italy but if Albania can beat Spain, they might need three.

Gli Azzurri's two games this summer have seen nine cards in total.

Over the last few days, we have seen a flurry of bookings brandished as the intensity ramps up. This has seen referees begin to enforce the rule introduced for this Euros where only the captain of a nation is allowed to approach the referee. There were 17 cards dished out across Saturday's three games.

Danny Makkelie has the whistle, the Dutchman isn't the most card happy referee but did dish out four in Germany's win over Hungary and booked Antonio Rüdiger who was flaunting the new rule.

So, who's the most likely candidate to be shown a card?

Nicolò Barella in the heart of the Italy midfield at .

He has not picked up a card at the Euros yet, so does not run the risk of getting suspended but notched up 10 in all competitions for Inter this term.

Recommended bets

Back Both teams to score in Albania vs Spain @ 2.06