England permutations: What Lionesses need to qualify for Euro 2025 knockout stages

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Evening Standard

·9 luglio 2025

England permutations: What Lionesses need to qualify for Euro 2025 knockout stages

Sarina Wiegman’s side had the worst possible start to their summer campaign

England are in a spot of bother at Euro 2025.

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The Lionesses are the defending champions in Switzerland, but they are perilously close to an embarrassing early exit after they were dealt a blow on matchday one.

A 2-1 defeat by France the Stadion Letzigrund in Zurich was the worst possible start to their tournament, as Marie-Antoinette Takoto and Sandy Baltimore’s goals were enough to give Les Bleus a crucial three points.

That result leaves England second-bottom of Group D, spared only by Wales’s 3-0 defeat to the Netherlands in the other opening fixture.

But what does that loss do for England, and what do they need to reach the last 16?

Group D table as it stands

Simply, if England lose to the Netherlands, and France were to draw with Wales, their title defence would be over and they would be out at the first hurdle.

Wales will also be out if they lose to France and the Netherlands claim at least a draw with England.

The Lionesses cannot be knocked out with a draw against the Dutch in Zurich, and their chances would be helped massively by France if Les Bleues were to win or draw against Wales and then beat Holland in their final game.

Naturally, that relies on England beating Wales in their final fixture in St Gallen, with goal difference a key factor. The Lionesses would need at least a three-goal margin to be sure of their quarter-final qualification.

Should Wiegman’s side draw with the Netherlands today, then France and Andries Jonker’s Dutchwomen can reach the knockout stages with a draw against each other on matchday three.

If the worst were to happen and the Lionesses lose to the Netherlands, all would not be lost if Wales were to do the impossible and beat France. England would not be out, but would have to beat the Welsh in their final game and hope that the Netherlands beat France, which would then force a mini-league between the three countries.