Derby v Leeds: Back County to be competitive | OneFootball

Derby rarely lose by multiple goals under Paul Warne

Table-topping Leeds face a tricky test when they travel to Derby on Sunday evening. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is backing County to be competitive at Pride Park...

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Derby v LeedsSunday December 29, 17:45Live on Sky Sports

Derby trending upwards

Jerry Yates was on target for a spirited Derby side as they ensured promotion-chasing West Brom began life without Carlos Corberan with defeat at Pride Park. The Rams capitalised on a slow start from the visitors and stood firm under second-half pressure before Kayden Jackson's well-struck deflected shot doubled their advantage and sealed the success.

County conceded late on but were able to bag a second win in three Championship outings to move to within two points of the top-half with head coach Paul Warne full of praise for his players. He said, "We started really well but didn't take our chances. But Jerry (Yates) scored a good goal, and we had pretty good control. They didn't really lay a glove on us."

Warne made two changes from the gut-wrenching loss against Luton as Sonny Bradley and the injured Ben Osborn made way. Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Marcus Harness came into the start with the duo part of a shift in formation from a back three to a four-man defence. Osborn is hoping to be available again on Sunday, whilst Liam Thompson is also a doubt.

Leeds return to Championship summit

Leeds boss Daniel Farke felt his side ought to have shown more cutting edge despite tabling a 2-0 triumph at struggling Stoke that took the Whites back to the top of the Championship table on Boxing Day night. Joel Piroe scored a goal in each half to take his season's tally to nine as the visitors won on their travels for only the second time in eight encounters.

Leeds enjoyed 76% of the ball in the Potteries and won the shot count 20-5. Analysing the victory post-match, Farke said: "It was a good win and a good performance - not one of our shiniest. We should have shown more cutting edge, but we had control. The games are coming thick and fast though, so you can't complain about an away win and a clean sheet."

Japan international Ao Tanaka is expected to return to the side after being rested at Stoke but defender Max Wober remains a doubt. Elsewhere, Sam Byram is to be monitored and Ethan Ampadu assessed ahead of the trip to Pride Park as Leeds' medical staff try to ensure there is no adverse reaction to the increase in workload. Ilia Gruev remains absent.

Whites too short to support

Derby have enjoyed a W15-D6-L12 supremacy in head-to-head meetings against Leeds this century, although the Rams' have tended to struggle in more recent contests. County come into this clash having posted just W1-D2-L5 in fixtures against the Whites since 2017, managing a solitary success in their last six Pride Park match-ups against Leeds (W1-D1-L4).

Derby 6.00 are W4-D6-L5 since the start of October as Paul Warne's side have settled impressively into second-tier life. The Rams have been particularly eye-catching in recent weeks and have proven tough operators at Pride Park (W6-D2-L3), ranking seventh on home Expected Points (xP) where only six sides have conceded a lower Expected Goals (xG) figure.

Leeds 1.64 league-leading position is reflected by the underlying data. Daniel Farke's troops top the charts for xP and xG ratio, by a distance, though the Whites haven't been as dominant away from Elland Road. The visitors are W4-D5-L2 on their travels - exclude the bottom-six and that road record returns a rather uninspiring W2-D5-L2 this term.

Back County to be competitive

The goal expectancy for Sunday's showdown is sitting at just 2.45, an unsurprisingly low figure considering nine of Leeds' 11 away days have featured a maximum of two strikes. However, a lower-goal expectancy should ensure a competitive clash and Derby therefore look a touch too big across the board here. The +1 Asian Handicap stands-out at 1.82.

Backing this selection would ensure a pay-out should County clinch a surprise win, or a share of the spoils, whilst a one-goal defeat would return a push. Only a two-goal Leeds victory would see our stake lost, a scenario that's occurred only three times in 23 Derby dates since promotion, and in just three of Leeds' overall games as guests thus far.

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