Club World Cup, Saudi money, PSR and No 9s: The factors driving the summer transfer market | OneFootball

Over the three days around the Champions League final in Munich, in hotels like the £900-a-night Rosewood, a number of intense meetings were taking place. Security was tight, agents and club representatives were trying to find secluded corners. They were so close to the transfer window that a certain discretion was needed. At least one big deal was struck.

For some in football, the regular season’s games have stopped so the real business begins. A strand of modern fans might feel the same.

They are likely to be very engaged over the next few months, because there is going to be a lot of activity.

This summer window is already unique in how we have an extra mini-window. The imposition of Fifa president Gianni Infantino’s expanded Club World Cup has necessitated a new market spell up until the tournament, which begins on 14 June. While it has already seen Trent Alexander-Arnold go to Real Madrid in a £10m move that is no longer a Bosman, that is expected to be about the height of it. Cristiano Ronaldo is now staying at Al-Nassr, even if many in the game still openly wonder whether a way will be found to get him in Fifa’s new showpiece tournament before it starts.

That seems far-fetched right now. As it is, only minor deals are expected. This is because clubs are still more concerned about getting best value for targets rather than getting them in now. The Club World Cup isn’t that important to them, despite how Infantino speaks about it.

A far greater consideration for value is what the new PSR (profit and sustainability rules) world has done, and that it might be affected by this tournament. Those clubs who go the distance at the Club World Cup are going to win close to $100m (£74m). That might create market waves in the final weeks of the window.

Real Madrid have rushed to sign defender Trent Alexander-Arnold in a £10m move from Liverpool before the Club World Cup (EPA)

Another potential driving force of the window could be Saudi Pro League transfer escalation, especially since this is the first summer after the country was named host of the 2034 World Cup. They want to start making even more statement signings.

The interest in Bruno Fernandes is a start, one of a number of European stars who could move clubs this summer, along with teammate Marcus Rashford. The big one is currently Florian Wirtz, who is deciding between Liverpool and Bayern Munich, with Real Madrid looking on. It’s where an extra £80m from the Club World Cup could be so influential.

Liverpool are able to consider offering sums of well over £100m because they barely spent last year, meaning they have “a lot of PSR headroom”.

That is going to be one of the phrases of the summer.

Some executives expect an extremely busy window due to “PSR churn”. The view is that the rules force constant rotation and recycling in order to stay within the limits, due to the nature of contracts and amortisation. One consequence is that clubs feel forced into selling players they don’t want to sell, or make transfers that aren’t fully for football reasons. As such, clubs will end up with more mismatched squads.

Even those clubs who are highly supportive of the concept of PSR, or at least significant financial restraint, do not feel the regulations are fit for purpose in that sense.

Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers has been linked with a move away – and Chelsea are actively trying to seal a deal for the flourishing talent (PA)

A classic example might be Morgan Rogers. Aston Villa absolutely wouldn’t want to sell such a burgeoning star, but their high wage bill may force a rethink without Champions League football.

On the other side, Mikel Arteta wants to keep Jakub Kiwior given how he proved himself such a useful squad player towards the end of the season. If he is trying to complete his first XI to win a title, though, that is exactly the kind of player that might have to make way in order to boost spending power.

“PSR churn” is understood to have been one of the reasons that Andrea Berta was appointed sporting director at Arsenal, due to his ample experience of the market. He has worked for Atletico Madrid through windows of wildly different nature, be they years when they had money, years when they didn’t, or years when they had to get creative. That sort of skill has never been needed more.

Other executives are known to relish this challenge. One relatively new owner to the Premier League is said to have become “addicted” to player trading, and loves the back and forth of it.

Arsenal are among a few major clubs that are expected to sign at least four players, along with Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United. Newcastle United are more emboldened after qualifying for the Champions League. With Chelsea, you can take high activity as a given.

They are actively trying to get Rogers done now, and you only have to look at how they are swooping for Ipswich Town’s Liam Delap. He had been widely expected to go to Manchester United, who may now need to look elsewhere for a striker. The search for No 9s is another key theme this summer.

Benjamin Sesko and Viktor Gyokeres are wanted men (Getty)

There might be an element of musical chairs. While the game does now have more strikers than a few years ago, they are still at a premium. All of Chelsea, Arsenal and United see the position as their main priority. Liverpool may look, too, but they are currently seeking to complete business in other areas first.

The names standing out in all analyses are Delap, Leipzig’s Benjamin Sesko, Sporting’s Viktor Gyokeres and Eintracht Frankfurt’s Hugo Ekitike. Who gets their first choice may dictate the next moves, and all the way down. United, for example, are understood to have gone cooler on Gyokeres since January. They may now have to go back in strong given Delap’s decision, but could face competition from Arsenal… if they don’t press ahead with Sesko.

Leipzig and Sporting are two of those clubs whose model is built on selling high, and it is something that may have even further influence on the Premier League’s market. Bournemouth willingly want to sell some of their season’s stars, including Antoine Semenyo. That’s now the model, as we’ve seen with Dean Huijsen going to Real Madrid.

Crystal Palace’s Europa League qualification does change things there. They always drive a hard bargain but have developed in a similar way. There is naturally interest in a series of their players, through Marc Guehi, Adam Wharton, Daniel Munoz, Jean-Philippe Mateta and – above all – Eberechi Eze.

A European run will see a few be more willing to give it another season. Eze may not quite have that luxury, since a few clubs have previously demurred to his age. At 26, it’s now or never. Eze seizing the moment in the FA Cup is now making Tottenham Hotspur really consider a move.

Whether they have competition may depend on a number of other factors. This may be another busy summer – but the number of variables is unprecedented.