Bundesliga European race: The full assessment | OneFootball

As the Bundesliga Rückrunde enters its final stretch, the race for European qualification is heating up.

With Bayern München and Bayer Leverkusen leading the pack by a significant margin, the battle for the remaining Champions League, Europa League and Conference League spots remains wide open.

Several teams remain in contention, with just seven points separating third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt, and Borussia Dortmund in 10th.

With crucial fixtures ahead, every passing week could prove decisive in determining who secures a coveted spot.

Here is a breakdown of the key contenders:

3rd - Eintracht Frankfurt - 42 points

Since their 2-0 win against Borussia Dortmund on Matchweek 18, Eintracht Frankfurt have struggled with consistency. They followed that victory with three frustrating draws against Hoffenheim, Wolfsburg, and Mönchengladbach, games they arguably could have won. A 3-1 win against Kiel on February 16th provided some relief, but subsequent heavy defeats against Bayern München (4-0) and Bayer Leverkusen (4-1) have stalled momentum.

The loss of Omar Marmoush to Manchester City has undoubtedly been a blow after the Egyptian netted 15 times and provided nine assists for die Adler prior to his departure.

Despite this, the upcoming fixture list looks more favourable, with matches against Union Berlin and Bochum providing a potential platform to regain form. However, they still have Stuttgart, RB Leipzig, and Mainz to navigate, with a crucial final-day fixture against Freiburg that could be decisive.

4th - Mainz 05 - 41 points

Bo Henriksen has worked wonders with Mainz, steering them from relegation trouble last season to European contention this term. Die Nullfünfer are on course for their first European qualification in nine years.

Defensively solid, Mainz have conceded just 25 goals, only league leaders Bayern Munich have a better record. Up front, Jonathan Burkardt has been outstanding with 14 goals, while backups Nelson Weiper and Armando Sieb have also contributed well. Their resilience and organisation make them a tough opponent for any team, as evidenced by their pre-Christmas result against Bayern.

A vital 2-1 away win against RB Leipzig last weekend has boosted their momentum, but a tough run awaits with matches against Mönchengladbach, Freiburg, and Dortmund next.

Further tests against Wolfsburg, Bayern, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Leverkusen on the final day could make for a dramatic finish.

5th - SC Freiburg - 40 points

Freiburg's presence in the European race isn't surprising given the club's recent history, yet it still feels remarkable. They've capitalised on winnable fixtures, with key victories over Stuttgart on opening day and dominant wins against Werder Bremen (1-0 and 5-0).

However, their pre-Christmas dip raised concerns, and the remaining schedule is daunting. Freiburg face direct rivals Leipzig, Mainz, Dortmund, Gladbach, Wolfsburg, and Frankfurt, with a challenging tie against Leverkusen as well.

The final-day clash with Frankfurt could be crucial, but having already lost 4-1 to them in January, they may need to improve significantly to secure a top-four spot.

However, in regards to Freiburg's season as a whole, Julian Schuster undoubtedly takes full praise after an excellent debut year as head coach.

6th - RB Leipzig - 38 points

With Marco Rose set to depart in the summer, Leipzig are preparing for a new era. Their Champions League exit was disappointing, but they still have a DFB-Pokal semi-final against Stuttgart to fight for.

Champions League qualification remains paramount, both for the club’s long-term vision and for keeping stars like Benjamin Šeško, Loïs Openda, and Xavi Simons.

Their schedule is challenging, with games against Freiburg, Dortmund, and Gladbach up next, followed by clashes with Frankfurt, Bayern, and Stuttgart on the final day. Leipzig's ability to navigate this run will likely determine their fate.

7th - VfL Wolfsburg - 37 points

Wolfsburg have played some exhilarating football this season, and Patrick Wimmer’s brace against Werder Bremen on Saturday, his second goal a stunning strike, was a highlight.

Out of the teams in contention, Wolfsburg arguably arguably have the easiest remaining fixtures, having already faced Bayern and Leverkusen.

Their next four games against St. Pauli, Augsburg, Heidenheim, and Union Berlin provide a golden opportunity to build momentum before a tougher final stretch that includes Leipzig, Mainz, Freiburg, Dortmund, and a final-day meeting with Gladbach.

Winning the next four could put them in an advantageous position should other teams falter.

8th - Borussia Mönchengladbach - 37 points

Gladbach are an enigma. Earlier this season, they broke a bizarre streak of over two and a half years without consecutive league wins. Despite inconsistencies, they remain in the European mix.

A comfortable 3-0 win over Heidenheim capitalised on Stuttgart’s loss to Bayern at the weekend, and new signing Tim Kleindienst has been a revelation, scoring 14 times. However, heavy defeats like their 5-1 loss to Wolfsburg show their volatility.

Upcoming fixtures against Mainz, Leipzig, Freiburg, Dortmund, and Wolfsburg, with Bayern as their penultimate opponent, mean their fate is far from secure. A final-day showdown with Wolfsburg could be pivotal.

9th - VfB Stuttgart - 36 points

Stuttgart’s slump has been well-documented. A Champions League hangover contributed to their defeat to Gladbach at the beginning of February, but their issues run deeper. Dropped points against Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim, and a home defeat to Bayern have hampered their campaign.

A win against Kiel this weekend is vital ahead of a tough clash with Leverkusen. The next fixture against Frankfurt, who beat them 3-2 in November, could be crucial.

The latter part of their run presents opportunities: matches against Bochum, Bremen, Union Berlin, Heidenheim, St. Pauli, and Augsburg precede a final-day meeting with RB Leipzig. If Stuttgart can stay within touching distance of the top six before this stretch, they could capitalize.

10th - Borussia Dortmund - 35 points

Dortmund’s season has been a disaster by their usual standards, but back-to-back Bundesliga wins have given them a glimmer of hope. Nuri Sahin was sacked in January and subsequently replaced by ex-Frankfurt, Bayern and Wolfsburg man Niko Kovac.

However, for die Schwarzgelben, unlike the clubs in and around them, the club's focus remains on securing a top-four finish rather than just any European qualification.

After hosting Augsburg this weekend, BVB have an unforgiving schedule: they face Leipzig, Mainz, Freiburg, Bayern, Gladbach, Wolfsburg, and Leverkusen. With only two matches outside the top eight (Hoffenheim and Kiel), Dortmund will need a significant turnaround to salvage their season.