Boxing Day Premier League Football Tips: Oppose Newcastle and Man Utd, plus back goals in Bournemouth | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Boxing Day

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back to recommend his best bets in the Premier League on Boxing Day...

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Newcastle v Aston Villa (Thur, 15:00)

Newcastle recorded back-to-back wins following their victories away to Ipswich Town and at home to Leicester City to move up to 8th in the table after 17 games so far this season. Based on their performances, in and around mid-table is where they deserve to be.

They rank 10th for most shots per-game with 13.7 and 14th for fewest shots conceded with 13.6 - a differential of just +0.1.

As a result, they are creating the 9th most expected goals with 28.22 and conceding the 8th fewest expected goals against with 26.61 - a differential of only +1.61. Which all means they rank 12th for expected points, a very good guide for overall ability.

Following 6th placed Aston Villa's win over Manchester City, they come into this in great form having won four of their last five games and their performances rank better than Newcastle.

They sit 14th for most shots per-game with 12.9 and 6th for fewest shots conceded with 11.5 - a differential of +1.4 (Newcastle +0.1). As a result, they are creating the 7th most expected goals with 33.02 and conceding the 5th fewest expected goals against with 24.86 - a differential of +8.16 (Newcastle +1.61). Which all means they rank 5th for expected points.

It doesn't make sense Newcastle are Evens. Again their record versus top half opposition sums them up having only won two of eight games.

Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (Thur, 15:00)

Bournemouth repeated last seasons feat with another terrific 3-0 win at Old Trafford making a mockery of the odds-on prices for Man Utd to win.

It moves them up to 5th and just three points off the Champions League places. Crystal Palace suffered a very disappointing 5-1 defeat to Arsenal but they've been much improved of late with just one defeat in their last six games.

The obvious bet here is to back goals at the prices. Bournemouth's matches have seen 48 goals (For 27, Against 21) at an average of 2.82 per-game. However, they should have scored more goals with them being the biggest underachievers in the league in-front of goal, having created 36.89 expected goals with the biggest culprits in Marcus Tavernier, Antoine Semenyo and Evanilson.

Their high quality chances is in no small part due to their willingness to get shots off ranking 2nd attempting 16.5 per-game. So it's no surprise that Over 2.5 goals is a regular winner with 19 of Bournemouth's last 29 games having seen three or more goals (66%).

There's been a noticeable increase in the number of goals Crystal Palace are scoring and thus overall number of goals in their games recently with the introduction of Ismaila Sarr to the starting 11.

Against Premier League opposition, there's been 33 goals in his last 11 starts at an average of 3.0 per-game. Before he started the previous nine games, there had only been 18 goals in the eight matches without him at an average of only 2.25 per-game. Back the goals to continue here.

Wolves v Manchester United (Thur, 17:30)

After stealing a victory in the derby at Manchester City the previous weekend, results returned to what we've been accustomed to with Manchester United this season, with Ruben Amorim now having lost three of his last four games.

It means it's only two wins in six Premier League games for the new boss as United's poor season continues as they find themselves in 13th with a negative goal difference.

Wolves themselves have a new manager as well having finally cut the cord with Gary O'Neil. Portuguese boss Vitor Pereira took charge of his first game with a comprehensive 3-0 win away to Leicester City with all three goals coming before half-time.

He made four changes from their previous game and it seemed to work with two of the players brought in - compatriots Goncalo Guedes and Rodrigo Gomes - both scoring.

Near Even money quotes for an away win look far too short for a Man Utd side with just two wins on the road in eight games, having scored just eight goals.

Generally managerial changes happen because of bad results with some bad luck and when the replacement comes in you get a 'new manager bounce'.

Often this is the bad luck evening itself out with good luck and given Wolves are the 4th most under-achieving side based on expected points, their performances haven't been as bad as their league position suggests, and more positive results are due.

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