Bet Builder Tips: Back Andy Robson's 5/1 best bet in Borussia Dortmund v PSG

In partnership with

Betting.Betfair.com

·1 maggio 2024

Bet Builder Tips: Back Andy Robson's 5/1 best bet in Borussia Dortmund v PSG

French side to register plenty of shots
Mbappe looks set for another starring role
Real all about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout here!
Familiar foes Borussia Dortmund and PSG will collide for the third time in this season's Champions League when they meet for their semi-final first-leg tussle in front of the "Yellow Wall" at Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday evening.
Though Dortmund qualified from Group F alongside the Parisians before Christmas, the German outfit are considered underdogs and outsiders to win the Champions League outright behind their more illustrious semi-final counterparts.
A positive first-leg result is a must if Dortmund are to upset the odds this week and ahead of the action, we've compiled a four-part bet builder for their crucial encounter with PSG that comes in at a price of 5/16.00 with Betfair.
Leg #1: PSG double chance
Borussia Dortmund pipped PSG to top spot in Group F before Christmas, though Die Schwarzgelben only managed to wrangle one point from their two meetings with Paris St. Germain in September and December.
The teams' most recent encounter, which took place on December 13th at Signal Iduna Park, finished level at 1-1, however, PSG were the classier outfit and were perhaps a little unfortunate not to win.
PSG dominated 59.3% of the ball in Germany, mustered 18 attempts to Dortmund's 10, and won the xGF battle (2.80 - 1.40) against their hosts, while the tale of the tape was similar when the Ligue 1 giants put their opponents to the sword in France back in October (2-0).
Having already showcased their superiority against Dortmund twice this term, Paris St. Germain - who were crowned as French champions again at the weekend - should arrive in Germany with confidence to burn and they are an attractive prospect to avoid defeat.
Dortmund were softened up in a convincing 4-1 loss at RB Leipzig on Saturday and their run of two wins in six assignments overall doesn't inspire confidence.
PSG meanwhile, have tasted defeat just once in their last 32 fixtures in all competitions and they have strong credentials in the double chance market again here.
Leg #2: Over 12.5 PSG shots
PSG found it relatively straightforward to get at the Dortmund defence when they visited Germany in December and the French champions racked up a meaty 18 attempts against their yellow-clad hosts at Signal Iduna Park.
Paris St. Germain clocked another 16 attempts in the reverse Group F meeting between the clubs in October and they wield enough cutting edge in the final third to create more opportunities in the teams' third Champions League encounter of the campaign.
Dortmund's surge to the competition's semi-finals has been captivating, however, they have been flying by the seat of their pants a little and they conceded at least 13 shots in three of their four knockout round fixtures and in 70% of their ten matches in the Champions League overall.
Of the competition's four semi-finalists, PSG (17.00) rank second only to Real Madrid (17.20) for average shots registered per Champions League fixture this season, and Luis Enrique's charges have hit at least 13 attempts in eight of their ten games in this season's tournament in total.
Dynamic attackers PSG (22.18) also sit second for total xGF accrued in the Champions League so far and we expect their ability to carve open defences to be evident again in Germany.
Leg #3: Vitinha to commit 2+ fouls
Vitinha is a committed workhorse in midfield for PSG and the 24-year-old has been particularly combative in the Champions League this season for the Parisians.
The Portuguese international has been committing 1.70 fouls per 90 in the competition this term, though Vitinha showed extra bite when deployed against Dortmund earlier in the campaign.
Vitinha committed two and three fouls respectively when he featured in PSG's pair of Group F meetings with Borussia Dortmund before the turn of the year and the ex-Wolves anchorman is likely to be just as forceful on Wednesday.
The tough tackler has started eight separate Champions League fixtures this season and Vitinha gave away two or more free kicks in five of those matches.
Interestingly, when Vitinha starred at Signal Iduna Park against Dortmund in December, he committed three fouls before half time, so expect a similar amount of early enthusiasm from the willing runner when PSG visit the same venue on Wednesday evening.
Leg #4: Kylian Mbappe to have 1+ shots on target
Kylian Mbappe has been a star performer in this season's Champions League for PSG and the French superstar is currently the tournament's leading scorer with eight goals.
The forward seems to find an extra gear when the Champions League inches towards its climax and only a handful of players have scored more knockout round goals than Mbappe (20).
The 25-year-old, who has been averaging 1.90 shots on target per 90 in the competition so far, racked up eight attempts in two appearances against Borussia Dortmund before Christmas, and Mbappe should be a menacing presence again in Wednesday's semi-final first leg.
The rapid attacker hit the target with four of his six efforts in the away leg of PSG's quarter-final double-header against Barcelona on April 16th and Mbappe can be just as effective at Signal Iduna Park this week.
Mbappe, who only played 45 minutes of football against Le Havre in Ligue 1 at the weekend, should be rested and full of running against Dortmund, and backing him to have at least one shot on target again should be a safe inclusion.