Aston Villa vs Man City prediction: A stalemate on the cards at Villa Park? | OneFootball

It’s getting harder and harder to predict anything where Manchester City are concerned, just ask Pep Guardiola!

Who would have thought the team that won the treble just 18 months ago would endure a run of one win in 11 games and more importantly have lost eight of those matches?

This weekend they travel to Aston Villa in Saturday’s early kick-off (12.30pm, TNT Sports 1) desperate to give their fans some festive cheer after losing last week’s Manchester Derby in dramatic fashion.

City were leading 1-0 thanks to a goal from Josko Gvardiol until the 88th minute when Bruno Fernandes converted from the penalty spot after Amad Diallo was bundled over in the box by Matheus Nunes.

Diallo completed the turnaround in added time when he scored his fourth goal of the season to condemn City to another defeat, despite dominating possession.

Villa also go into the game on the back of a defeat, despite leading until the 87th minute. Jhon Duran had given the visitors the lead at Nottingham Forest before Nikola Milenkovic equalised with just three minutes to go. Anthony Elanga scored the winner in added time to condemn Villa to their seventh defeat in all competitions.

Two places and two points separate City and Villa in the league table with the reigning champions in fifth place following Forest’s win.

They are nine points behind the leaders Liverpool, who also have a game in hand and the football betting sites have them at fourth favourites to win the league in May at 16/1, you can get 500/1 on Villa who are 11 points off Liverpool.

A few weeks ago, City’s run of form could be described as a blip, after all everyone is human, but when does a blip become something more serious?

Good players don’t become bad ones overnight but it’s clear to see how much confidence plays a part in success. Every team can cope with a couple of people out of form and lacking in confidence but not when it’s all XI and the manager.

On paper, City are still the best team but that has been largely due to their mindset over the last eight years since Guardiola arrived. Their ability to always do what they needed to win and grind out results, and without that they look ordinary right now.

Despite that, the betting apps have City as the favourites at 23/20 compared to Villa at 23/10 and a draw at 11/4 and a point apiece wouldn’t be the worst result for either side.

After winning four of their opening five games of the league season Villa have struggled with consistency, largely due to their involvement in the Champions League for the first time.

Recent back-to-back wins against Brentford and Southampton ended a run of five games without a win, which included defeats to Tottenham, Liverpool and Chelsea.

After being pushed down into sixth place they would love the chance to leapfrog City on Saturday - the fact they are unbeaten in their last seven league games at Villa Park should give them some confidence.

They have won four and drawn three but they are looking to win three in a row at home for the first time since a run of 15 between March and December 2023.

Villa have conceded 25 goals in the league this season, which is five more than would have been expected using xG but it is only two more than City. They have already conceded 23 in their opening 16 games, which is just 11 less than they conceded in the whole of last season.

You would have always backed City to score as well and Erling Haaland in particular but despite having had more shots than any other side in the league this season, with 282 their shot conversion rate is just 9.9%, which is their lowest in a single campaign since 2006-07 when they finished 14th.

Haaland has managed just two goals in his last seven league games but he still has a shooting accuracy of 54% with 38 shots on target from 70 shots but just 13 goals so far.

The striker has only played against Villa three times, since arriving at City in June 2022 and has one goal and one assist and you can get 8/11 on the betting apps on him scoring or assisting on Saturday.

He has averaged more than two shots on target per game in the league this season and betting sites have him at 21/20 to achieve that again.

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