After their Nations League victory are Portugal among the favourites to win the FIFA World Cup? | OneFootball

Portugal’s latest triumph in the UEFA Nations League over Spain has reignited global conversations about their potential to conquer the 2026 FIFA World Cup. With the tournament just a year away, speculation and oddsmakers are adjusting predictions. While traditional powerhouses like Argentina, Brazil, and France remain prominent in the conversation, Portugal’s evolving squad and recent silverware are compelling reasons to consider them serious contenders. This article dives deep into the top ten teams with the best odds of winning the next World Cup and how Portugal’s resurgence shifts the dynamics of international football.

Spain: +500

Spain currently holds the best odds to win the 2026 World Cup at +500. Their victory in the 2024 European Championship reinforced their dominance, particularly with standout players like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams commanding the wings. Rodri, the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner, is expected to return from an ACL injury, adding balance to their midfield. However, their recent defeat to Portugal in the UEFA Nations League final exposed vulnerabilities. Spain’s only previous World Cup win came in 2010. With so much promise in youth and form, Spain remains a top contender, but Portugal’s win has complicated their narrative.

France: +600

France comes in second with +600 odds, boasting explosive pace and elite finishing from Kylian Mbappé, Désiré Doué, and 2025 Ballon d’Or favourite Ousmane Dembélé. Despite reaching consecutive World Cup finals in 2018 and 2022, they remain with only two titles in history. In the 2024 Euros, they fell to eventual champions Spain. Their defensive line, led by William Saliba and Theo Hernández, is formidable. France has shown consistency, but the sting of recent close calls and Portugal’s momentum adds new pressure. Among betting picks, France remains a solid but increasingly vulnerable choice.

Brazil: +650

Brazil leads the globe in World Cup titles with five, though they have not secured one since 2002. Their +650 odds reflect both their historic stature and present inconsistencies. The 2024 Copa America saw them ousted in the quarter-finals by Uruguay in a shootout, continuing a 22-year trophy drought. Vinícius Júnior’s rise to prominence — second in Ballon d’Or voting in 2024 — gives Brazil attacking edge. Richarlison is expected to be the lone striker, while Marquinhos anchors the defence. Despite world-class talent, their recent performances suggest that without cohesion, Brazil might fall short again.

England: +700

England’s lone World Cup title came in 1966. Their +700 odds mirror a mix of elite talent and historical underperformance. Jude Bellingham, fresh off a third-place finish in the 2024 Ballon d’Or vote, leads a dynamic midfield supported by Declan Rice. England came close in recent tournaments — losing the Euro 2021 final to Italy and the Euro 2024 final to Spain. Harry Kane, the nation’s top scorer, aims for one last shot at glory. Though the squad brims with skill, decades of heartbreak cast doubt on whether England can finally go all the way.

Argentina: +800

Argentina, the reigning World Cup champions, sit fifth in the odds at +800. Having lifted the trophy in 1978, 1986, and most recently in 2022, they also captured the 2024 Copa America title with Lautaro Martínez scoring the extra-time winner against Colombia. Lionel Messi, despite announcing his international retirement in the past, is speculated to return. Even without him, Argentina’s attack remains lethal with Julián Álvarez and Martínez, while their midfield is reinforced by Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul, and Enzo Fernández. They are still very much a force in global football.

Germany: +1100

Germany’s last World Cup triumph came in 2014, adding to their total of four titles. With +1100 odds, the Mannschaft is looking to redeem itself after a quarter-final exit at the hands of Spain at Euro 2024. Their forward depth is questionable with only Niclas Füllkrug and Kai Havertz as reliable options. But the midfield trio of Jamal Musiala, Leon Goretzka, and the ever-consistent Joshua Kimmich brings balance. Defensive stability and tactical adaptability will be Germany’s hope of a resurgence, but their road will be tougher than in past decades.

Portugal: +1200

Portugal enters with +1200 odds and renewed energy following their UEFA Nations League victory against top-seeded Spain. Cristiano Ronaldo’s stunning volley to push the final into extra time reminded the world of his enduring brilliance. But it is the midfield that is Portugal’s biggest asset. UEFA Champions League winner Vitinha, along with Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva, form one of the strongest midfield trios in the world. Despite disappointing quarter-final exits in both Euro 2024 (to France via penalties) and the 2022 World Cup (to Morocco), this squad, now fully matured, has championship pedigree and momentum heading into 2026.

Netherlands: +2000

The Netherlands, at +2000, are always competitive but continue chasing their first World Cup title. They have reached the final three times but never sealed the deal. In the 2022 tournament, they were narrowly edged out by Argentina in a dramatic penalty shootout. The Dutch reached the Euro 2024 semi-finals before falling 2-1 to England. Captain Virgil van Dijk is joined by defenders Stephan De Vrij and Denzel Dumfries, creating a solid wall at the back. Memphis Depay leads the attack, while Cody Gakpo, Wout Weghorst, and Donyell Malen offer diverse options upfront.

Italy: +2500

Italy, four-time World Cup winners, last triumphed in 2006. At +2500, their current trajectory is lacking consistency. They scraped into the Euro 2024 knockout stage but were defeated 2-0 by Switzerland in the Round of 16. Midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini is a standout, alongside Inter Milan defenders Francesco Acerbi and Matteo Darmian. The competition for roster spots is fierce as Italy’s younger talents strive to replace a golden generation. If they can gel, they may surprise — but the odds reflect the uncertainty around their development curve.

Uruguay: +3000

Uruguay rounds out the top ten with +3000 odds. Their first World Cup win came in 1930 on home soil, with another title following in 1950. Since then, it has been a long wait. Their recent third-place finish in the 2024 Copa America was encouraging. Legends Luis Suárez and Diego Godín have stepped aside, giving way to a new core. Federico Valverde commands the midfield, while Darwin Núñez aims to become Uruguay’s next great forward. Their defensive duo Ronald Araújo and José María Giménez are among the world’s best — a rock-solid foundation for a hopeful campaign.

Portugal’s Rising Chances After UEFA Nations League Victory

Portugal’s win over top-ranked Spain in the UEFA Nations League is more than just another trophy — it is a statement of intent. With a midfield that can dominate possession and a leader like Ronaldo who still delivers on the big stage, they have both the experience and youth to make a real impact. Their recent record — quarter-final losses in the last two major tournaments — reflects past shortcomings. But this time it feels different. The squad has matured, tasted victory against elite opposition, and remains injury-free. As 2026 nears, Portugal stands as one of the most dangerous dark horses on the planet.