UEFA Nations League Preview: Belgium vs Italy – Team News, Line-ups & Prediction | OneFootball

High-flying Italy will put their bid to secure a top-table finish in the UEFA Nations League Group A2 on the line when they take on out-of-sorts Belgium on Thursday. Brussels’ King Baudouin Stadium forms the backdrop for this high-stakes fixture, with both nations in dire need of three points, albeit for different reasons.

Belgium’s hopes of securing a playoff berth are in tatters despite a promising start. Domenico Tedesco’s men enter the penultimate round in third in Group A2, five points adrift of second-placed France. With only six left to play for, anything other than a win in Brussels will condemn them to a relegation playoff scrap.

That’s a far cry from the country’s lofty aspirations in the past decade. As they endeavor to move on from their trophyless ‘golden generation,’ De Rode Duivels have tarnished their reputation in world football, slipping from the top of FIFA’s men’s rankings in September 2018 to sixth ahead of this mouth-watering clash.

Despite languishing three places beneath their hosts in the FIFA rankings, the Italians will make this trip in high spirits. A point would seal their progression into the quarter-finals for the third successive Nations League cycle. However, Luciano Spalletti’s charges seem hellbent on locking down a top spot.

That’s a feat they’ve achieved in the last two Nations League installments. And after going unbeaten in their first four Group A2 outings (W3, D1), it’s only natural to assume they’ll touch down in Brussels determined to get the job done ahead of a top-table six-pointer against France next weekend.

Match Preview

Belgium

Belgium got their Nations League campaign off to a flyer. They strolled to a 3-1 day-one triumph against League A debutants Israel on home turf. Little did they understand the magnitude of the crisis that was about to unfold after that landslide victory.

Beaten twice by France, Belgium found some respite in a 2-2 draw against Italy in last month’s reverse fixture in Rome. Tedesco’s team fell two goals behind in the opening 25 minutes. However, they had Lorenzo Pellegrini’s expulsion at the tail end of the first half to thank for avoiding defeat.

Though they held Italy winless at the Stadio Olimpico, it was a mere consolation, knowing their winless run against Gli Azzurri in competitive action extended to six matches (D2, L4). Indeed, Belgium’s last triumph against Italy, excluding friendlies, dates back to May 1972.

The picture looks bleak even when factoring in exhibition matches (W4, D5, L16). But there’s a silver lining. Three of those four victories have come on home soil.

Italy

Except for the abovementioned H2H draw, Italy have excelled during the ongoing Nations League cycle. In addition to a brace of routine triumphs against minnows Israel, Gli Azzurri pulled off a sensational comeback in a 3-1 day-one away win against France, reaffirming their continental credentials following a 2024 UEFA European Championship fiasco.

Spalletti’s side swiftly regrouped after the Stadio Olimpico heartache, dismantling Israel 4-1 last time out to set themselves up perfectly for this mouth-watering road trip. That result strengthened Italy’s formidable record in the Nations League group phase, making it 18 unbeaten games from 20 (W10, D8, L2).

Furthermore, the Italians have racked up four consecutive Nations League wins in foreign lands, underscoring their confidence ahead of their first visit to Belgian soil since a 3-1 friendly loss in November 2015. However, it’s not all rosy by any stretch of the imagination.

Before overcoming France and Israel in the post-Euro 2024 period, Italy had gone winless in three consecutive away outings (D1, L2), failing to score more than once on each occasion.

Team News

With Manchester City playmaker Kevin De Bruyne out, Belgium will turn to Napoli’s Romelu Lukaku to lead the charge. The robust striker is the only player still in the Re Rode Duivels squad to start their last home encounter against Italy. In addition to De Bruyne, Tedesco cannot count on Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois.

As for Italy, Inter midfielder Nicolo Barella returns to the fold after skipping October’s call-up with injury. Free-firing Atalanta center-forward Mateo Retegui will spearhead the attack, while Pellegrini rejoins the squad after serving a one-game ban against Israel.

Belgium vs Italy Potential Starting Line-ups

Belgium (4-2-3-1): Maarten Vandevoordt; Timothy Castagne, Wout Faes, Zeno Debast, Arthur Theate; Orel Mangala, Youri Tielemans; Dodi Lukebakio, Leandro Trossard, Jeremy Doku; Lois Openda.

Italy (3-5-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma; Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori; Raoul Bellanova, Nicolo Barella, Samuele Ricci, Sandro Tonali, Federico Dimarco; Lorenzo Pellegrini; Mateo Retegui.

Belgium vs Italy Prediction

Despite Belgium’s sub-par run of just one win from their last six internationals, they’re no idle threat, especially in their home setting. Therefore, we wouldn’t go as far as to back Italy for a win with conviction, but we still expect Gli Azzurri to return home undefeated.