Thursday Football Tips: Focus on Guga in Copa Sudamericana battle | OneFootball

Bet of the Day

Our football props column returned to the winners' clricle on Wendesday and now it has a 6/1 shot for Thursday's action in the Copa Sudamericana...

Fluminense v Once CaldasThursday 29 May, 01:30 (Fri, BST)

The remaining matches in the Copa Sudamericana group stage take place on Thursday night with this contest set to decide the winners of Group F.

Fluminense must win if they are to finish top but Once Caldas only need a point to claim first place and avoid a play-off against one of the drop-out teams from the higher-ranked Copa Libertadores competition.

The straight head-to-head battle therefore means a great deal to both sides and that competitive nature, plus a card-happy referee, make the card markets appeal.

Leg 1: Guga to be shown a card

Argentine official Dario Herrera has shown 32 cards in his six CONMEBOL club appointments this season, while last term he produced a red card in seven of nine in the Copa Libertadores.

The Colombian visitors went into matchday six with the third-most cards in this competition, while Fluminense are averaging a still-decent two per game across this group stage.

The hosts are odds-on to win this game but their outright price has pushed the player-card odds too high, in my opinion.

The pressure is firmly on the Brazilians and if Once Caldas can keep things tight early on, there's clear potential for frustration to kick in.

The player I like best is Guga, who the local press expect to keep his spot at right-back.

The defender shone in the weekend win over Vasco da Gama but was also booked. He has now been carded in six of 13 starts this season yet is on offer at 10/3.

It's a price worth taking.

Leg 2: Guga 1+ shot

To create a Bet Builder, let's also back Guga for 1+ shot.

Confidence will be up following a goal in that weekend victory (two shots in total) and he's now had a shot in four of his last seven starts.

With that need for victory, Guga can be expected to push on down that right flank to help Fluminense press for those three points.

The double pays just under 6/1.

Alan Shearer exclusive: My best and worst of 2024/25

Recommended bets

Back Guga to be shown a card & have 1+ shot @ around 6/1

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 316pts Returned: 321.31pts 2024/25 P/L: +5.31pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts